Virginia Tech at Virginia, 3:45 p.m. Saturday, ACC Network
It's Hokies and 'Hoos in Charlottesville this afternoon, back at its more normal post-Thanksgiving date after COVID pushed last year's meeting into December.
The dynamics surrounding this game are pretty unique. Virginia Tech is without head coach Justin Fuente after his firing, and Virginia has had a decent, at times thrilling and fun, albeit also frustrating season. Lots of adjectives could be used to describe it. The Wahoos have one of their best offenses ever, and the defense is, at the very least, the worst in a long, long while. Even though UVa had a chance to defend its Coastal Division crown right up until it lost to Pittsburgh last weekend, the natives are a little bit restless with coach Bronco Mendenhall. A victory over the rival would go a long way to placating the fan base a bit, and the Hokies would surely enjoy becoming bowl eligible while defeating the Cavaliers for the 17th time in the past 18 seasons and would give them a nice taste in their mouths as they wait to see who their next coach will be.
Here's more on the matchup:
Virginia Tech's record: 5-6 (3-4 ACC)
Wins: home vs. No. 10 North Carolina (close; of course, you have to mention that UNC started out No. 10 nationally but finished a disappointing 6-6 after losing to N.C. State on Black Friday), home vs. Middle Tennessee State (blowout), home vs. Richmond (21-10), at Georgia Tech (comfortable-ish), home vs. Duke (blowout)
Losses: at West Virginia (27-21), home vs. No. 14 Notre Dame (tight), home vs. Pittsburgh (blowout), home vs. Syracuse (tight), at Boston College (comfortable BC victory), at Miami (comfortable 'Canes victory)
Coach: The Hokies fired Fuente (or mutually agreed to part ways) before the Miami game last weekend. Fuente went 43-31 in almost six full seasons leading the Hokies. Interim coach J.C. Price is co-defensive line coach for his alma mater. This is Price's first season back in Blacksburg since being a graduate assistant in 2002-03. Price was a defensive linemen for the Hokies from 1992-95. After his grad assistant years in Blacksburg, he was a defensive coach for James Madison and then Marshall before returning to Tech before this season.
Series record: Virginia Tech leads, 59-38-5
Last meeting: Dec. 12, 2020; Virginia Tech won, 33-15 Streak: One for VT
Line: UVa by 7 (as of Friday night)
Line: UVa by 7 (as of Friday night)
Over/under: 63.5
Virginia Tech offense: The Hokies rank 13th in the ACC, scoring 24.5 points per game. Their total offense ranks last in the ACC, rushing offense comes in sixth, and passing offense is 13th. QB Braxton Burmeister has completed 56.4% of his passes for 1,819 yards, 12 TDs, and four INTs. He's also rushed for 406 yards and two scores. QB Connor Blumrick also saw time last week in Tech's loss at Miami, and he could see time today. Blumrick, a Texas A&M transfer, completed 5 of 11 passes for 39 yards and two TDs. His main threat, though, is as a runner. Blumrick recorded 20 attempts for 132 yards against the 'Canes. Burmeister is a good runner, too, and has the edge as a passer. Raheem Blackshear leads the Hokies in rushing with 545 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and five TDs. Malachi Thomas has 421 yards (5 ypc) and three TDs. At wideout, Tre Turner has 40 catches for 675 yards and three TDs, and Tayvion Robinson has tallied 41 receptions for 470 yards and four TDs. Virginia Tech's offensive line has given up 24 sacks, tied for 65th among FBS teams.
Virginia Tech defense: The Hokies rank fourth in the conference, allowing 22.8 points per game. Their total D ranks sixth, and they are ninth against the run and second versus the pass. Defensive back Nasir Peoples paces the Hokies with 83 tackles. Linebacker Dax Hollifield leads the Hokies with nine tackles for losses and 4.5 sacks. Tech's 23 sacks ranks them tied for 69th nationally. DB Jermaine Waller leads the unit with four interceptions, which is tied for most in the ACC. Tech is plus-1 in turnover margin, tied for 56th in the country.
Virginia Tech special teams: John Parker Romo has made 15 of his 19 field goal attempts with a long of 52 yards. Peter Moore is averaging 45.5 yards per punt, second best in the conference. Virginia had trouble defending kick and punt returns last week at Pittsburgh. That's not good, because the Hokies have a few capable returners. Most notably, Robinson is first in the ACC, averaging 13.7 yards per punt return, with one TD. Blackshear has returned only six kicks, but his 28.8 yards-per-return average would place him second in the ACC, and Keshawn King has returned 10 kicks an average of 24.4 yards, which would be fifth best in the league.
Thoughts and pick: Well, here we are after a long and winding season: Commonwealth Cup day. The Hokies are playing for pride and bowl eligibility, and the 'Hoos are playing for pride after losing at Pitt last week. Had they won, they would have needed to win this game to take the Coastal Division. I hope Virginia's players don't need any extra motivation after last year's performance in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers looked flat and were pretty much pummeled. After they took a 7-0 lead, the Hokies outscored them 33-8. This year, the game is back in Charlottesville, and the 'Hoos should be pumped up to take back the Cup after recapturing it in 2019 for the first time since 2003. If they can't get up for this game, it would just be unacceptable.
Despite the seemingly separate paths these teams have taken this year -- with Tech firing Fuente, while Mendenhall's Cavaliers were in the running for the division title up until a week ago -- they are separated by only one victory. One could argue that Virginia Tech's loss to Notre Dame was the most impressive game either has played this season. The Hokies led the Fighting Irish by 8 with 3:55 left in the game and lost 32-29. Tech also defeated North Carolina, something Virginia did not do. But UVa did take down Miami, which Virginia Tech lost to last week. The Hokies have no wins over teams with winning records; that's official after N.C. State beat UNC on Friday, making the Tar Heels 6-6. Virginia has two victories over winning teams -- barely, 30-28 over Miami, and 34-33 over Louisville -- though that number could also be zero by the end of Saturday if Louisville can't beat Kentucky and if Miami were to falter at Duke, in which case either team is back to .500 with a loss. All this is to say that I think there may be a perception that Virginia has had a more successful season, and the Hokies have been in disarray. But that's only slightly true.
Something interesting I noticed is that Virginia has played every team in the ACC ranked seventh to 14th in pass defense and none in the top six, and Virginia Tech is second. Oh boy. Mad props to Brennan Armstrong this year. I mean the guy has been awesome. But if there is a game in which he could struggle, it could be this one because the Hokies have had a very solid season on D. And he was not good last year in Blacksburg: 25 of 46, 259 yards, two TDs, two INTs. I just hope he doesn't come out looking flummoxed, leading the offense to a stinker of a showing.
And then there's Virginia's defense, and we know the story there. Can it make just a few stops, get maybe a turnover or two? We know it is likely to give up points, though I will be fair since I just picked on Virginia's offense against bottom-half defenses -- Virginia's defense has yet to play a team ranked 10th through 14th in total offense in the conference: VT is the first at 13th. UVa has played every team ranked first through ninth except one (N.C. State). So perhaps there's a bit of hope that the defense can play well. Since Tech is only so-so in passing, I am worried it is just going to pound the ball at Virginia's porous rush defense, mix things up with looks from both Burmeister and Blumrick and have them run, and then just pick some spots to get the ball to Robinson or Turner in space. I think this game plan would be difficult for the Cavaliers to stop.
Price is a Hokie through and through. I am sure he despises Virginia, and he will have the Hokies foaming at the mouth to retain the Cup in Charlottesville. It doesn't matter one iota that Fuente isn't around anymore. Heck, that might help. I don't think anyone is that convinced that the players were totally invested with Fuente or even liked him that much. Their motivation will be high. I am sure of it. Tech always just has this special way of rising to the occasion against Virginia, while the Cavaliers make a few more mistakes and come up on the short end of the stick.
I see this edition of the rivalry kind of playing out like those games in 2014 and 2015, both of which Tech won, 24-20 and 23-20, respectively. It's just that the score will be higher. After years and years of disappointment, I said I was never going to pick the 'Hoos in this game until they won. Since they won in 2019, I did pick them last year, and you know what happened. And we know how the 'Hoos looked -- almost like they didn't want to be there. So the players need to prove to me that they want to be out there and want to win this game as badly as the Hokies. Until then, it is back to picking Tech.
Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 34
Picks record: 7-4
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