Virginia hosts rival Virginia Tech, must deal with demons of success

Virginia Tech at Virginia, 3 p.m. NBC29, WTTG

The Cavaliers battle more than the Hokies on Saturday. They are also battling themselves psychologically. That is because ever since the Tennessee game, Virginia has been the hunter. But that has changed now.

Yes, the Wahoos have been the favorite in some of these games during their recent win streak (they have won five of their last six games), but still, for the most part, UVa's back has been against the wall for the past three weeks or so. On Jan. 4, Virginia played at Florida State. The 'Hoos were coming off a 35-point loss at Tennessee. The Seminoles, to that point, had probably had a slightly better year than the Volunteers and UVa had not won in Tallahassee since 2001. The majority of people, including myself and most UVa fans, thought Virginia was going to lose. But it won -- and by 12.

The next game was against Wake Forest at home. People were mostly feeling good about this game since it was at home, but coach Tony Bennett was 1-4 against the Demon Deacons in his career going into the game and they had a better record than the Cavaliers. UVa won by 23.

Next up was a trip to N.C. State, always a tough place to play. The Wolfpack had a solid record with some good wins, including a victory over that same Tennessee team that whipped Virginia. UVa completely destroyed N.C. State by 31 points.

Just when a little win streak was underway, Virginia had to travel and play in one of the toughest arenas to win in as a road team -- Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke came into the game losers of two of its past three games with its own back up against the wall. The Blue Devils responded and played a pretty good game. UVa was down the entire contest but overcame a 13-point lead in the final minutes to take a one-point lead with less than a minute remaining. A lucky bounce for the Blue Devils, however, sent Virginia back to Charlottesville with a stabbing loss.

After a few days, UVa had to turn around and host FSU, the team it surely shocked on Jan. 4. Lots of fans, including myself, were not feeling good about this game. I figured that the Seminoles were a good team, certainly better than the way they played us in Florida. I knew we would get their best shot. Also, we were wondering if Virginia could recover mentally from a tough loss at Duke The Cavs did. Virginia won by 12 again.

Finally, most recently, storied North Carolina came to JPJ this past Monday for a nationally televised game on ESPN. The Tar Heels had been struggling this season but had also pulled off some really, really good victories over the likes of Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky. I believe Virginia was favored by seven points, but many were still uneasy about the game. This was UNC and it had some really good talent and that talent had beaten really good teams this year. It is easy to get up for the UNC game, though. The Cavaliers came out hungry and mostly dominated the Tar Heels. Virginia led by as many as 22 points on its
way to a 76-61 win.

Now, today, vs. the Hokies, Virginia is no doubt the hunted. The roles have changed. There is no way Virginia can be cast in the underdog role. Virginia Tech is 8-10 and 1-5 in the ACC and is coming off an 83-77 home loss to Wake Forest, the same team that UVa pasted (Don't forget, though, N.C. State beat Tennessee, a team that UVa stomped; Virginia then crushed State.). The Hokies have lost five games in a row and seven of eight. I believe Virginia is favored by almost 20 points. The Cavaliers have won 12 straight ACC games at home and the building is sold out. There will be lots of Wahoos there and I expect a few, but not many, Hokies.

If UVa plays its game, it will win. Even if both teams play really well, UVa wins this game by 10 points. The question is this, however: Will the 'Hoos have an edge about them at all and will they play their best? It is a rivalry game and these players should hate the Hokies. But there isn't much else to cling to. In all of those other games I mentioned, UVa had a reason to take the other team seriously. Against FSU the first time, no one thought Virginia was going to win so it could play the "nobody believes in us" underdog card to the max. Plus, FSU was a good team with some really good wins. Against Wake, people were wondering was the FSU game an aberration and was Virginia going to disappoint its fans again? Against N.C. State, it was a road game and the Wolfpack had played really well at times this season. Against Duke, it's because it was Duke at Cameron. If you aren't hyped for that game, you don't have a pulse. Against FSU the second time, it's because Virginia was coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Duke and everyone was expecting FSU to play much better than it had two weeks prior. And against UNC, it's because it is UNC and you always take the Tar Heels seriously no matter their record.

This time, Virginia has no real reason to take Virginia Tech seriously. And that is always a a dangerous place to be as a team. This is where one of Bennett's beliefs comes into play. Keep an even keel. Never get to up, and never get to down. You're never as good as you think, and you're never as bad as you think. In this case, Virginia needs to realize it is not as good as its best game this season, and Virginia Tech is not as bad as its worst game this season.

If UVa needs a reminder of how Virginia Tech can win against seemingly insurmountable odds, it just needs to look back two years ago. Virginia came into its home game vs. Virginia Tech at 15-2, 2-1 ACC and coming off a 70-38 demolition of Georgia Tech on the road. Virginia Tech came into the game 11-7 and 0-4 in the ACC. The Hokies won that game, though, 47-45. Now, this Virginia team's best is probably a little better than that Virginia team's best, and those Hokies were probably a little better than this year's Hokies, but still, the point is made. Virginia cannot afford to take anyone lightly. Things are going well right now and UVa should not let a team with a losing record stand in its way of keeping momentum going.

Virginia can and will win this game if it plays 85 percent of its best. Anything less, and it could be in for a dog fight. The Cavaliers need to be ready to take a punch from the Hokies, who are really struggling right now. No doubt they will come out swinging. They know the best way to win is to get up early and take the 'Hoos by storm. If the game is close early or UVa takes a lead early, the Hokies are likely finished. So they will come out firing right away and UVa needs to be ready.

Now, here is a closer look at the Hokies:

Record: 8-10, 1-4 ACC
Scorers in double figures: Senior forward Jarell Eddie (14.8 ppg), freshman guard Ben Emelogu (11.5), sophomore guard Adam Smith (11)
Leading rebounders: Eddie (5.7 rpg), sophomore forward Joey Van Zegeren (4.8), junior forward C.J. Barksdale (4.6), sophomore forward Marshall Wood (4.2)
Assist leaders: Freshman guard Devin Wilson (4.8 apg), Smith and Emelogu (2.1)
Best win: tie between beating West Virginia at home, 87-82, and Miami on the road in OT, 61-60
Other wins: Western Carolina, VMI, Furman, Radford, Winthrop, Maryland Eastern Shore
Best loss: Virginia Tech ended up losing to then-No. 1 Michigan State, 96-77, but led 28-27 with seven minutes left in the first half
Worst loss: Virginia Tech opened its season losing at home to USC Upstate, 64-63
Other losses: Seton Hall, UNC Greensboro, VCU, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Clemson
What Virginia Tech does well: The Hokies are second in the conference in 3-point shooting, behind only Duke at 40.1 percent. They also rebound the ball well, grabbing 39.1 per game (33rd in the nation)
What Virginia Tech does poorly: The Hokies are 227th in the country in assists and don't shoot well at just 42.9 percent (248th in the country). They are also only middle of the pack in the ACC in free throwing shooting at 65.8 percent.
Why Virginia should not be worried: The team is playing really well right now and the game is at home. Virginia Tech is playing really poorly right now. The Cavaliers cruised past the Hokies at JPJ a season ago.
Why Virginia should be worried: Virginia Tech is 8-10 but has shown some spunk this year. The Hokies played Michigan State and Syracuse tough for a half and is only a handful of points away from being 15-3. They lost seven games by single digits. If Tech gets hot from 3-point land, it could get interesting. The Hokies have nothing to lose and might end up coming out with no fear as a result. Plus, Tech has come into JPJ and beat a much more highly regarded UVa team before, during the 2011-12 season.

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