No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 4 Michigan State in New York, 9:57 p.m. TBS
UVa battles with lots of people's pre-NCAA tournament champion pick, Michigan State, tonight at Madison Square Garden in New York in the Sweet 16. The victor will face the winner of Iowa State-Connecticut on Sunday.
Let's take a closer look at the Spartans.
Record: 28-8, 12-6 Big Ten, won Big Ten tournament championship over Michigan
Scorers in double figures: Sophomore guard Gary Harris (16.9), senior forward Adreian Payne (16.6), senior guard Keith Appling (11.7), junior guard-forward Branden Dawson (11)
Leading rebounders: Dawson (8.3), Payne (7.3), sophomore guard Denzel Valentine (six), Harris (4.1)
Assist leaders: Appling (4.6), Valentine (3.9), Harris (2.7)
Other notable players: Junior guard Travis Trice scores 7.6 ppg off the bench and dishes out 2.4 apg. He shoots 44.8 percent from 3. Kenny Kaminski (6-foot-8) led the Big Ten in 3-point shooting this year at 49.3 percent (37 for 75). He plays 12.6 minutes per game off the bench and scores 5.1 ppg. Forward Matt
Costello is the final Spartan that plays more than 10 minutes per game and he averages 4.2 ppg and 3.5 rpg.
Best win: Over No. 8 and rival Michigan in the Big Ten tournament final, 69-55.
Other wins: McNeese State, Kentucky, Columbia, Portland, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Mount St. Mary's, Oakland, North Florida, Texas, New Orleans, Penn State (twice), Indiana (twice), Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern (three times), Illinois, Iowa (twice), Purdue, Wisconsin, Delaware (NCAA second round), Harvard (NCAA third round)
Best loss: The Spartans only lost by two at Wisconsin, a team that has been around the top 15 all year and is a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance and still advancing.
Worst loss: A tie between a 64-60 setback against Georgetown at Madison Square Garden and a 53-46 home loss to Illinois.
Other losses: North Carolina, Michigan (twice), Nebraska, Ohio State
What Michigan State does well: Plenty. The Spartans score 76.2 ppg (55th in the nation), grab 37 rpg (70th), record 17.1 apg (sixth), and shoot 47.4 percent from the field (31st). They shoot 70.4 percent from the free throw line and 39.3 percent from 3 (second in the Big Ten). Their field goal percentage defense is first in the Big Ten (40). They are third in the Big Ten in rebounding margin. They block the fourth-most shots per game in the Big Ten.
What Michigan State does poorly: The Spartans allow 66 ppg, which is neither poor nor great, but worth a mention. They are just in the middle of the Big Ten in the turnover ratio category.
Why Virginia should not be worried: Michigan State started the season 18-1, but went just 5-7 over its last 12 regular-season games. The Spartans lost at home to both Nebraska and Illinois and lost at MSG to Georgetown (Illinois and G'town ended up in the NIT while Nebraska was one-and-done in the Big Dance. Michigan State's swoon can partly be attributed to a plethora of injuries they sustained this season. Of the Spartans' main players, only Denzel Valentine has played in every game. The team is still in some pain but all the players are back and mostly healthy. However, it should be noted that even a healthy MSU squad lost at home by 14 to UNC back in December. Virginia Tech was also down just 31-30 to this team in November before MSU went on a run to go up 46-33 at the half. The Spartans also struggled with Columbia (won 62-53) and Oakland (won 67-63).
Why Virginia should be worried: That healthy team did play some good hoops early in the year as well, beating then-No. 1 Kentucky and spanking future NCAA tournament teams Oklahoma and Texas. Right now, that healthy team is back and playing as good as it has in awhile, running through the Big Ten tournament and now its first two games of the Big Dance with relative ease over Harvard and Delaware. MSU is a tough team that can bang inside, rebound, and also has capable scorers on the outside in Appling and Harris. Coach Tom Izzo is one of the best in the business and March runs are the norm for him.
This is a very difficult matchup for the Wahoos but they can win. But yes, this feels more like an Elite Eight or Final Four matchup than a Sweet 16 game. Lots of people picked MSU to win it all. I don't think that is necessarily disrespect toward UVa since they picked the Spartans to also beat teams like UConn, Iowa State, Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Wisconsin, etc. down the road to win the NCAA title. MSU was a trendy pick even at the beginning of the year to win the title and it held the top spot in the polls for awhile. Had it not been for a couple ugly losses with the injuries, say at home to Nebraska and in New York to Georgetown, I think this team could very well be a No. 1 seed instead of Virginia. It would have the same overall record as UVa and have come from a tougher conference.
Last week, I thought UVa coach Tony Bennett had the coaching edge over Memphis coach Josh Pastner. Well, Bennett might not have the edge this week. Izzo is a fine coach that has won a national title and has taken six teams to the Final Four since he took over prior to the 1995-96 season. In addition to just being a good coach in general, Izzo has played against UVa's type of defense before. Bennett's dad, Dick, of course invented the Pack-Line defense while coaching at Green Bay and Wisconsin. During the 1999-00 championship-winning season for Izzo, his Spartans beat Dick Bennett's Badgers four times. Izzo has also regularly played Wisconsin since then and current Badgers Bo Ryan implemented a version of the Pack-Line since he worked under Bennett. So Izzo is not only an experienced and good coach, but he is a veteran of playing against the Pack-Line and has had plenty of success against it. Not many teams have been able to crack it this season but if a team can, it would be MSU.
The Spartans have the players to score on the Cavaliers. They play a four-guard lineup that will put Payne, (6-foot-10, 245 pounds) on the smaller Akil Mitchell (6-foot-8, 235 pounds). That will be a monster matchup to watch. Mitchell did a good job on Duke's Jabari Parker in the ACC title game but Parker isn't as big or experienced. Payne can bang down low but can also step out and shoot the 3 (43.8 percent on the year). He's also a solid free throw shooter should UVa want to put him on the line (78 percent). He had a career-high 41 points vs. Delaware and made all 17 of his free throws. He came back down to Earth vs. Harvard with 12 points.
Virginia center Mike Tobey will thus likely be playing against Dawson, who is 6-foot-6. Dawson shoots 62 percent but does not shoot the 3 ball. Tobey could have some problems keeping up with him on offense but he could bother him with his length. And you would hope Tobey could score over Dawson, too, since Tobey is 6-foot-11. Dawson had 10 points vs. Delaware and then could not miss (12 of 15) vs. Harvard for 26 points. If Tobey has problems on 'D' and isn't having a good offensive game, I am guessing we could see Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson get a lot of minutes and one of them could draw the assignment on Dawson.
Harris is a very good sophomore guard for MSU and he has a big-time matchup with UVa's Malcolm Brogdon. Harris is able to shoot the 3 (35.2 percent) but not particularly well. However, he has taken the most 3-pointers on the whole team. The sophomore scored 10 points vs. Delaware and 18 vs. Harvard.
Appling can hit 3s at a more regular rate (37) than Harris but takes less. He is still bothered by a wrist injury and has only scored six points so far in the Big Dance. UVa will have to mark Kaminski closely when he comes into the game as he was near 50 percent on the year from beyond the arc.
I don't know how Valentine is on defense but he is only an inch shorter than Joe Harris, so I don't know if Harris is helped in any way on the offensive side against him. Harris will have to be steady on the defensive end against Valentine, who was second in the Big Ten this season in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Once again, I think Virginia can go deeper than the team it is playing. MSU has solid depth with Kaminski coming off the bench to shoot the 3 and Trice and Costello are good players, too, but MSU doesn't have a weapon like Gill it can bring off the bench and obviously Anderson brings superb defense and energy to the Cavaliers. Evan Nolte, forgotten for much of the regular season, has 14 points in the tournament and I think is capable of being a Kaminski like guy for UVa with shooting 3s. He is also tall like Kaminski (6-foot-8), rare for 3-point shooters. Even Darion Atkins -- though the team hasn't always needed him this year -- is capable of coming in and providing a six-point, four-rebound type of effort should UVa need it.
Michigan State has had a couple of distractions to deal with this week. The first one is minor in my mind. Izzo has been rumored to be a candidate for the NBA's Detroit Pistons head coaching job. Izzo has been a target of the NBA before and I think he is a college guy that could stick around for his entire career. Still, he has had to answer those annoying questions. The second thing puts a little more pressure on the Spartans. I have noticed this senior class storyline come up quite a bit. If MSU loses to UVa (or to the Connecticut-Iowa State winner should MSU beat UVa), these senior Spartans -- Payne and Appling -- would be the first class under Izzo to not reach the Final Four at least once. I think that puts some pressure on them. I know they are experienced veterans, really good players and stuff, but when it gets down to crunch time and the game is tied or MSU is down a little bit, will that pressure increase a little more? They probably don't want to be known as the first class under Izzo to fail to make it to the Final Four.
Certainly, this game represents a tall task for UVa. Michigan State is pretty healthy and sound in all aspects of the game. The Spartans' coach is good and seasoned against the Pack-Line defense. MSU likes to get out and run, but unlike Memphis, will be more effective in the half court than Memphis was when the Tigers were stymied on the fast break by the 'Hoos. Michigan State probably does represent the toughest team Virginia has faced this season and could even be a bigger challenge than UConn or Iowa State should Virginia advance to the Elite Eight. This team is beatable, though, if UVa plays one of its better games of the season. MSU lost at home to UNC earlier this year and was far from perfect throughout the season. The 'Hoos are able to beat anyone at this point with all the momentum they have built up and with how well they have been playing lately. I expect tonight's game to be a slugfest that comes down to the wire.
UVa battles with lots of people's pre-NCAA tournament champion pick, Michigan State, tonight at Madison Square Garden in New York in the Sweet 16. The victor will face the winner of Iowa State-Connecticut on Sunday.
Let's take a closer look at the Spartans.
Record: 28-8, 12-6 Big Ten, won Big Ten tournament championship over Michigan
Scorers in double figures: Sophomore guard Gary Harris (16.9), senior forward Adreian Payne (16.6), senior guard Keith Appling (11.7), junior guard-forward Branden Dawson (11)
Leading rebounders: Dawson (8.3), Payne (7.3), sophomore guard Denzel Valentine (six), Harris (4.1)
Assist leaders: Appling (4.6), Valentine (3.9), Harris (2.7)
Other notable players: Junior guard Travis Trice scores 7.6 ppg off the bench and dishes out 2.4 apg. He shoots 44.8 percent from 3. Kenny Kaminski (6-foot-8) led the Big Ten in 3-point shooting this year at 49.3 percent (37 for 75). He plays 12.6 minutes per game off the bench and scores 5.1 ppg. Forward Matt
Best win: Over No. 8 and rival Michigan in the Big Ten tournament final, 69-55.
Other wins: McNeese State, Kentucky, Columbia, Portland, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Mount St. Mary's, Oakland, North Florida, Texas, New Orleans, Penn State (twice), Indiana (twice), Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern (three times), Illinois, Iowa (twice), Purdue, Wisconsin, Delaware (NCAA second round), Harvard (NCAA third round)
Best loss: The Spartans only lost by two at Wisconsin, a team that has been around the top 15 all year and is a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance and still advancing.
Worst loss: A tie between a 64-60 setback against Georgetown at Madison Square Garden and a 53-46 home loss to Illinois.
Other losses: North Carolina, Michigan (twice), Nebraska, Ohio State
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| Gary Harris |
What Michigan State does poorly: The Spartans allow 66 ppg, which is neither poor nor great, but worth a mention. They are just in the middle of the Big Ten in the turnover ratio category.
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| Adreian Payne |
Why Virginia should be worried: That healthy team did play some good hoops early in the year as well, beating then-No. 1 Kentucky and spanking future NCAA tournament teams Oklahoma and Texas. Right now, that healthy team is back and playing as good as it has in awhile, running through the Big Ten tournament and now its first two games of the Big Dance with relative ease over Harvard and Delaware. MSU is a tough team that can bang inside, rebound, and also has capable scorers on the outside in Appling and Harris. Coach Tom Izzo is one of the best in the business and March runs are the norm for him.
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| Keith Appling |
This is a very difficult matchup for the Wahoos but they can win. But yes, this feels more like an Elite Eight or Final Four matchup than a Sweet 16 game. Lots of people picked MSU to win it all. I don't think that is necessarily disrespect toward UVa since they picked the Spartans to also beat teams like UConn, Iowa State, Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Wisconsin, etc. down the road to win the NCAA title. MSU was a trendy pick even at the beginning of the year to win the title and it held the top spot in the polls for awhile. Had it not been for a couple ugly losses with the injuries, say at home to Nebraska and in New York to Georgetown, I think this team could very well be a No. 1 seed instead of Virginia. It would have the same overall record as UVa and have come from a tougher conference.
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| Tom Izzo |
The Spartans have the players to score on the Cavaliers. They play a four-guard lineup that will put Payne, (6-foot-10, 245 pounds) on the smaller Akil Mitchell (6-foot-8, 235 pounds). That will be a monster matchup to watch. Mitchell did a good job on Duke's Jabari Parker in the ACC title game but Parker isn't as big or experienced. Payne can bang down low but can also step out and shoot the 3 (43.8 percent on the year). He's also a solid free throw shooter should UVa want to put him on the line (78 percent). He had a career-high 41 points vs. Delaware and made all 17 of his free throws. He came back down to Earth vs. Harvard with 12 points.
Virginia center Mike Tobey will thus likely be playing against Dawson, who is 6-foot-6. Dawson shoots 62 percent but does not shoot the 3 ball. Tobey could have some problems keeping up with him on offense but he could bother him with his length. And you would hope Tobey could score over Dawson, too, since Tobey is 6-foot-11. Dawson had 10 points vs. Delaware and then could not miss (12 of 15) vs. Harvard for 26 points. If Tobey has problems on 'D' and isn't having a good offensive game, I am guessing we could see Anthony Gill and Justin Anderson get a lot of minutes and one of them could draw the assignment on Dawson.
Harris is a very good sophomore guard for MSU and he has a big-time matchup with UVa's Malcolm Brogdon. Harris is able to shoot the 3 (35.2 percent) but not particularly well. However, he has taken the most 3-pointers on the whole team. The sophomore scored 10 points vs. Delaware and 18 vs. Harvard.
Appling can hit 3s at a more regular rate (37) than Harris but takes less. He is still bothered by a wrist injury and has only scored six points so far in the Big Dance. UVa will have to mark Kaminski closely when he comes into the game as he was near 50 percent on the year from beyond the arc.
I don't know how Valentine is on defense but he is only an inch shorter than Joe Harris, so I don't know if Harris is helped in any way on the offensive side against him. Harris will have to be steady on the defensive end against Valentine, who was second in the Big Ten this season in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Once again, I think Virginia can go deeper than the team it is playing. MSU has solid depth with Kaminski coming off the bench to shoot the 3 and Trice and Costello are good players, too, but MSU doesn't have a weapon like Gill it can bring off the bench and obviously Anderson brings superb defense and energy to the Cavaliers. Evan Nolte, forgotten for much of the regular season, has 14 points in the tournament and I think is capable of being a Kaminski like guy for UVa with shooting 3s. He is also tall like Kaminski (6-foot-8), rare for 3-point shooters. Even Darion Atkins -- though the team hasn't always needed him this year -- is capable of coming in and providing a six-point, four-rebound type of effort should UVa need it.
Michigan State has had a couple of distractions to deal with this week. The first one is minor in my mind. Izzo has been rumored to be a candidate for the NBA's Detroit Pistons head coaching job. Izzo has been a target of the NBA before and I think he is a college guy that could stick around for his entire career. Still, he has had to answer those annoying questions. The second thing puts a little more pressure on the Spartans. I have noticed this senior class storyline come up quite a bit. If MSU loses to UVa (or to the Connecticut-Iowa State winner should MSU beat UVa), these senior Spartans -- Payne and Appling -- would be the first class under Izzo to not reach the Final Four at least once. I think that puts some pressure on them. I know they are experienced veterans, really good players and stuff, but when it gets down to crunch time and the game is tied or MSU is down a little bit, will that pressure increase a little more? They probably don't want to be known as the first class under Izzo to fail to make it to the Final Four.
Certainly, this game represents a tall task for UVa. Michigan State is pretty healthy and sound in all aspects of the game. The Spartans' coach is good and seasoned against the Pack-Line defense. MSU likes to get out and run, but unlike Memphis, will be more effective in the half court than Memphis was when the Tigers were stymied on the fast break by the 'Hoos. Michigan State probably does represent the toughest team Virginia has faced this season and could even be a bigger challenge than UConn or Iowa State should Virginia advance to the Elite Eight. This team is beatable, though, if UVa plays one of its better games of the season. MSU lost at home to UNC earlier this year and was far from perfect throughout the season. The 'Hoos are able to beat anyone at this point with all the momentum they have built up and with how well they have been playing lately. I expect tonight's game to be a slugfest that comes down to the wire.
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