Virginia
Last year: Virginia went 2-10, 0-8 in the ACC in what was a disastrous year for coach Mike London, but he survived the offseason.
In a way, the Oregon game encapsulated the whole nightmare of a campaign. I remember the beginning of that game specifically. The Virginia defense stopped the Oregon offense on a couple of plays on the Ducks' first drive and I was like, "Alright! Here we go! New year of UVa football and we are putting last year's 4-8 campaign in the rearview (we were already 1-0 after a win over BYU). This team is looking tough and determined these first few plays. Maybe we can pull off this huge upset." If you remember, on 3rd-and-long, Oregon QB Marcus Mariota ran 71 yards for a touchdown.
The year started out positively enough with a tough, grind-it-out victory over BYU, 19-16, but it all went downhill after that, just like the start of the Oregon game. A fleeting moment of success followed by utter awfulness. Virginia ended up taking a beating from Oregon, 59-10. The Cavaliers must have had a hangover the next week, because against VMI, it was 0-0 after the first quarter and I thought I was going to hemorrhage. Losing to VMI in football would probably be the most embarrassing athletic failure in UVa history. UVa got it together, though, and beat the Keydets, 49-0. The defense didn't even allow 100 yards. It was terrific the next week, too, against Pittsburgh but the offense failed to show up. The defense forced three turnovers and allowed just 199 yards of offense but the team lost, 14-3.
The Cavs then hosted Ball State and this time, it was the defense's turn to let down the offense. Virginia took a 17-7 lead at the beginning of the second quarter but the Cardinals had tied it by halftime. The second half was pretty much all BSU as it won, 48-27. Virginia found a new way to lose the next week at Maryland in the teams' final ACC contest against each other. The Cavaliers played a pretty good game as evidenced by 505 yards of offense, 29 first downs, zero turnovers committed, three turnovers forced, and 38 minutes time of possession. I'll be honest. I watched most of that game and still can't remember how we lost with those numbers. I guess too many field goals. The next week, Virginia took a 22-0 lead on Duke but got outscored 28-0 in the second half of a 35-22 loss.
For Homecomings, UVa hosted Georgia Tech and played a pretty good first half. Virginia got down to the goal line though, down 14-10 at the end of the first half and I'm not sure what transpired. UVa had no timeouts left and it was second-and-goal at the one-yard line with six seconds left. We ran Kevin Parks. Anyone with even a smidge of football knowledge should see how this is a problem. If he doesn't make it to the end zone, the half is over and Virginia comes away with zero points. He didn't make it and Virginia came away with zero points. The team -- but probably mostly Mike London -- was booed as everyone headed to the locker room. If you don't want to pass the ball with six seconds left, ok, kick a field goal and make it 14-13. If you want to try for a touchdown, though, you're going to need to pass the ball. Six seconds would usually be plenty of time for a play but it has to be a pass. This is Football 101 people. Easily the most bone-headed play of the year. If London had input in the play, then I hope he was just being arrogant and wanting
to punch the ball in to send a message. That is dumb, but more excusable than not understanding that a failed run play will expire the clock and you will get no points. If London did not call the play, but heard the play call in his headset, and was not like, "Hey guys, that is not a very smart play. I know you want to send a message, but the more important thing is scoring points and trying to win the game and we do that by kicking a field goal or calling a pass play." Maybe he said something to that effect at halftime after it was too late but I doubt it. Either way, just a bad, bad play and one that was representative of the season.
What do we have next? Ah, another top-10 matchup. This one with Clemson. It ended the same way as the Oregon matchup. A 59-10 beatdown. Moving on. By this point of the season, I'm not remembering too many details in games. The Georgia Tech game was kind of the last one where I really invested a lot of time, energy, and emotion. I kind of tuned out the season after that, to be honest. The following two games produced 45-14 and 45-26 losses to UNC and Miami, respectively. I did go to the season finale against Virginia Tech. Neither team played well but I did see some fight from the team that had been missing most of the season. The 'Hoos even started some real on-field fights. I liked seeing that. At the end of a year like that one, that was almost like a win. The game ended in a loss, though, 16-6 to the rival Hokies, the 10th consecutive time Virginia Tech has ended Virginia's regular season with an 'L.' So there you have it. A 2-1 start followed by nine straight losses. Not a season to remember for the Wahoos.
The offense struggled mightily all year to score. The piling up of yards was not usually the hard part (368 per game -- not awesome, but not terrible by any means). Scoring was. Virginia notched only 19.8 points per game. I don't know if I remember a smaller figure in my time as a fan of the team. David Watford started every game at quarterback and underwhelmed to say the least. He completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 2,202 yards, eight touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. I thought, and hoped, that maybe Watford had turned the corner during the Georgia Tech game. He played very well, completing 43 of 61 passes for 376 yards, two TDs, and one pick. It was not to be, however, and he was back to his usual self the next week vs. Clemson. Greyson Lambert saw some time and completed 33 of 75 passes (44 percent) for 340 yards, one touchdown, and two INTs. Kevin Parks was a bright spot at tailback. He recorded 1,031 yards on 227 carries (4.5 yards per carry) and scored 11 touchdowns. It was the first 1,000-yard season for a Virginia running back since Alvin Pearman did that in 2004. Khalek Shepherd tallied 304 yards and a touchdown. Watford ran for 208 yards and three touchdowns. Much-balleyhooed freshman running Taquan Mizzell showed a couple flashes, but also dealt with injuries and totaled just 184 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Jake McGee led the team with 43 catches for 395 yards and two scores. WR Darius Jennings had 38 receptions for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Parks also had 38 catches for 329 yards and a touchdown. Mizzell recorded 29 catches, 164 yards, one touchdown and Tim Smith caught 26 balls for 389 yards and one TD.
The defense was great some games and in some stretches (BYU, VMI, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, first quarter vs. Ball State, first half vs. Duke, first half vs. Georgia Tech) but was mostly inconsistent and just not very good. It gave up 33.2 points and 403.6 yards per contest.
Offense: Six starters are back and the team appears to be moving on from Watford. Lambert has been in the QB No. 1 spot since after the spring game. I do believe he is a better passer than Watford. He was a
four-star recruit by some services when he committed in 2011 and was wooed by Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, LSU, and South Carolina, among others. I think he is ready and has shown some leadership characteristics over the past several months. He still has to show he is a good QB on the field. He completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes a year ago. But, I think he will be better this year and better than Watford. I don't know if that is the problem. My question: Is he good enough to overcome what appears to be a coaching deficiency? That's what I'm not sure about and am pessimistic about.
The running game comes back with all of its weapons. Parks is looking to become the first UVa running back to have consecutive 1,000 yards season since Thomas Jones in the 1999 and 2000 seasons. Shepherd is back as a senior and can contribute in the running and passing games. Mizzell is supposedly healthy and smarter and better than in 2013. Daniel Hamm is another player that had a good
moment last year -- 136 yards vs. VMI -- but suffered an injury the next week but is back this year.
In the receiving attack, McGee left after the spring game and decided to transfer to Florida, leaving the team with inexperience at tight end. Zachary Swanson (19 receptions) and Rob Burns are the top options there. Despite the loss of Tim Smith, the wide receiving cupboard appears to be stocked. Jennings is back and so are some other promising options such as Miles Gooch (two catches, 25 yards; listed as a starter along with Jennings), Keeon Johnson (20 catches, 282 yards, one TD; big target who showed promise last year and many fans thought he should have seen the field more), Kyle Dockins (eight catches, 96 yards), Andre Levrone (redshirted last year), and Canaan Severin (five catches, 43 yards). Senior Dominique Terrell (14 catches, 107 yards) has been hampered in the offseason by a hernia injury. He may see time eventually, but I doubt he will in the UCLA game. And he hasn't exactly lit up the field in past seasons. If several names I just listed perform well, it could be hard for Terrell to get out there. Another interesting prospect to watch is Jamil Kamara, a four-star true freshman. He is not listed on the depth chart for the UCLA game but most think he
will play this season.
The offensive line is where a lot of concern lies. It was criticized last year by some, but it did produce a 1,000-yard rusher and both Morgan Moses (Redskins) and Luke Bowanko (Jaguars) were drafted. There has been a lot of mixing and matching, especially in August, but the starting five for the UCLA game from left tackle to right tackle are sophomores Michael Mooney and Ryan Doull, junior Ross Burbank, senior Conner Davis, and sophomore Eric Smith. Quite the young first five. The second five listed only has one senior as well. If it performs solidly, that will bode well for next year. But London needs the offensive line to produce now because he won't be around after this year if the line doesn't do good things for the offense in the regular season.
The offense has weapons, it seems, but does it have a QB that is a capable upper-half-of-the-FBS level player and does it have an offensive line that will allow the QB and other weapons to operate in space?
Those questions remained unanswered.
Defense: Nine starters return to a defense that was wildly inconsistent last year. There was the good -- a big uptick in turnovers forced (21) and sacks (28) from 2012 and there was the bad -- I mentioned the yards and points given up and the games where the unit didn't seem to show up. But, the general feeling around this group is a good one with lots of returners and lots of players with experience in second-year coordinator Jon Tenuta's aggressive system. The two key losses are tackle Brent Urban (40 tackles, 11.5 for loss, one sack in only eight games played) and end Jake Snyder (55 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks).
The starters for the UCLA game along the line are defensive end Mike Moore (16 tackles, 1.5 for loss, one sack), tackles David Dean (49 tackles, 7.5 for loss, four sacks) and Donte Wilkins (12 tackles, two for loss, half a sack), and end Eli Harold (51 tackles, 15 for loss, 8.5 sacks), who has All-ACC potential. The
linebackers on the outside are Max Valles (23 tackles, 5.5 for loss, four sacks) and Daquan Romero (89 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks) and the middle linebacker is Henry Coley (91 tackles, 10 for loss, one sack), last season's tackles leader. Virginia returns its top three tacklers from last year in Coley, Romero, and strong safety Anthony Harris (80), who led the nation last year with eight interceptions. The rest of the starting secondary is cornerbacks Brandon Phelps (44 tackles, one for loss) and Maurice Canady (44 tackles, two for loss, two sacks) and free safety Quin Blanding, a five-star true freshman who is getting thrown right into the fire. Another five-star true freshman you might recall that committed to Virginia is tackle Andrew Brown. He dealt with a turf toe injury in the spring and then a shoulder injury in August. But he should be ready to contribute vs. UCLA. Senior cornerback Demetrious Nicholson (one INT) started 30 consecutive games in his career before suffering a turf toe injury last season and re-aggravated it in the spring. He should play this year but it might not be Saturday. Other key players you can expect to see in the secondary are cornerbacks Tim Harris (26 tackles, one for loss) and DreQuan Hoskey (43 tackles, three for
loss, one pick).
Several returners (two pretty impressive in Harris and Harold), a scheme that isn't new, and a pair of five-star recruits should make for a defense that is better than last season. It probably won't be elite but hopefully it is very solid.
Special teams: Kicker Ian Frye was having a good season in 2013 (3 of 4 with a long of 53 yards) when he hurt himself in warmups before the Pitt game -- it was that kind of year. Punter Alec Vozenilek filled in for him and is capable of being accurate, especially within 40 yards, where he made all 11 of his attempts. Frye returns healthy this season. Punting-wise, Vozenilek got 41.2 yards per punt. Shepherd is listed as the primary punt returner though he didn't return any last year and the main two kick returners listed are Mizzell and Jennings, and neither did that great of a job last season. The team as a whole returned kickoffs an average of just 18.6 yards. So in summation, the kicking and punting should be pretty good, but the return game leaves something
to be desired.
Schedule, notes, outlook: UCLA, Richmond, Louisville, at BYU, Kent State, Pittsburgh, at Duke, North Carolina, at Georgia Tech, at Florida State, Miami, at Virginia Tech. Ouch. That's all I have to say for a team that is fighting for its coach's job. London has a tall mountain to climb and the odds are stacked against him to get this done. There are only two games where I think you can say with over 50 percent certainty that Virginia will win: Richmond and Kent State, and they are far from very likely. Let's say, though, Virginia does win those games. Where are the other four victories coming from that would get the Cavaliers to six, probably helping London keep his job? BYU again (the Cougars killed Connecticut on Friday night in their opener)? Pittsburgh? Maybe Duke comes back to earth. Miami (Virginia seems to play Miami well at home for some reason)? Maybe the Hokies will continue to be mediocre and the Wahoos can snap the dreaded 10-game losing streak to their rivals. Point is, it is very difficult to find six wins on this schedule without cracking a laugh. Half of the FBS' teams would have a hard time getting to six wins with this schedule, probably.
As has been a theme throughout this preview, the main problems I have with the team are the coaches, the strategies, and the decisions. I will be rooting for the players and I think we have some good ones. But the coaches last year were unable to put together a cohesive team that played well and mistake-free football for a full four quarters. If London can't use his timeouts correctly or understand basic concepts of football, then that severely handicaps the team's talent. Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild has rarely produced a good to great offense in his many years of coaching. It doesn't matter if Lambert is better than Watford or if Parks is capable of 1,500 yards or if Johnson or Kamara are capable of breakout seasons at WR if Fairchild doesn't put them in position to succeed or doesn't call the right plays at the right times. Parks could be a great talent, but the talent is wasted if coach Scott Wachenheim can't get the offensive line to block properly. Harris could once again lead the nation in picks and Harold could continue his upward trend but it doesn't matter if, as a whole, Tenuta's defense gambles too much and leaves gaping holes for opposing QBs, RBs, and WRs. Talent, I think, is not the issue. Utilizing that talent, coaching that talent, and managing and calling a smart game are huge question marks that could spell doom this season. And there is that schedule.
I am pulling for the team and I hope it surprises me. But the 'Hoos could easily play better than last season and end up with four wins because of the strength of the teams they are playing. A nightmare scenario in my mind is the team ends up with five wins (better than last year but there would still be no tangible reward, ie, bowl game) and the administration decides to keep London because five victories would actually be pretty good against this schedule. I think the team would be better off in 2015 and beyond with less than five wins (London fired, new coaching staff comes in that can use the talent properly) or more than five wins (bowl game, uptick in recruiting, fans' mood improves, London can possibly continue to succeed and stay longer).
A popular offseason question has been, "How bad do you think it will have to be for London to be fired midseason?" Well, I don't think that Virginia has ever fired a coach in the middle of the season, but if the Cavaliers lose their first five to six games (including Richmond which, by the way, has two former UVa QBs at the top of the depth chart) and most in embarrassing fashion, we will probably see if it is possible. My one hope this year is that the team plays with effort and plays a clean game, meaning fewer penalties, fewer turnovers, and fewer bad decisions by the coaching staff. I will be watching and a team that at least plays like that -- even without winning -- is more enjoyable to root for. My final verdict is not a good one and this is not a rainbows-and-sunshine version of how this year will hopefully play out. I am trying to be optimistic but part of me can't help but to look ahead to November and basketball season. I'll be begging for the 'Hoos to prove me and all of the other doubters (there are a lot of us) wrong.
Win-loss prediction: 3-9 or 4-8
Last year: Virginia went 2-10, 0-8 in the ACC in what was a disastrous year for coach Mike London, but he survived the offseason.
In a way, the Oregon game encapsulated the whole nightmare of a campaign. I remember the beginning of that game specifically. The Virginia defense stopped the Oregon offense on a couple of plays on the Ducks' first drive and I was like, "Alright! Here we go! New year of UVa football and we are putting last year's 4-8 campaign in the rearview (we were already 1-0 after a win over BYU). This team is looking tough and determined these first few plays. Maybe we can pull off this huge upset." If you remember, on 3rd-and-long, Oregon QB Marcus Mariota ran 71 yards for a touchdown.
The year started out positively enough with a tough, grind-it-out victory over BYU, 19-16, but it all went downhill after that, just like the start of the Oregon game. A fleeting moment of success followed by utter awfulness. Virginia ended up taking a beating from Oregon, 59-10. The Cavaliers must have had a hangover the next week, because against VMI, it was 0-0 after the first quarter and I thought I was going to hemorrhage. Losing to VMI in football would probably be the most embarrassing athletic failure in UVa history. UVa got it together, though, and beat the Keydets, 49-0. The defense didn't even allow 100 yards. It was terrific the next week, too, against Pittsburgh but the offense failed to show up. The defense forced three turnovers and allowed just 199 yards of offense but the team lost, 14-3.
The Cavs then hosted Ball State and this time, it was the defense's turn to let down the offense. Virginia took a 17-7 lead at the beginning of the second quarter but the Cardinals had tied it by halftime. The second half was pretty much all BSU as it won, 48-27. Virginia found a new way to lose the next week at Maryland in the teams' final ACC contest against each other. The Cavaliers played a pretty good game as evidenced by 505 yards of offense, 29 first downs, zero turnovers committed, three turnovers forced, and 38 minutes time of possession. I'll be honest. I watched most of that game and still can't remember how we lost with those numbers. I guess too many field goals. The next week, Virginia took a 22-0 lead on Duke but got outscored 28-0 in the second half of a 35-22 loss.
For Homecomings, UVa hosted Georgia Tech and played a pretty good first half. Virginia got down to the goal line though, down 14-10 at the end of the first half and I'm not sure what transpired. UVa had no timeouts left and it was second-and-goal at the one-yard line with six seconds left. We ran Kevin Parks. Anyone with even a smidge of football knowledge should see how this is a problem. If he doesn't make it to the end zone, the half is over and Virginia comes away with zero points. He didn't make it and Virginia came away with zero points. The team -- but probably mostly Mike London -- was booed as everyone headed to the locker room. If you don't want to pass the ball with six seconds left, ok, kick a field goal and make it 14-13. If you want to try for a touchdown, though, you're going to need to pass the ball. Six seconds would usually be plenty of time for a play but it has to be a pass. This is Football 101 people. Easily the most bone-headed play of the year. If London had input in the play, then I hope he was just being arrogant and wanting
What do we have next? Ah, another top-10 matchup. This one with Clemson. It ended the same way as the Oregon matchup. A 59-10 beatdown. Moving on. By this point of the season, I'm not remembering too many details in games. The Georgia Tech game was kind of the last one where I really invested a lot of time, energy, and emotion. I kind of tuned out the season after that, to be honest. The following two games produced 45-14 and 45-26 losses to UNC and Miami, respectively. I did go to the season finale against Virginia Tech. Neither team played well but I did see some fight from the team that had been missing most of the season. The 'Hoos even started some real on-field fights. I liked seeing that. At the end of a year like that one, that was almost like a win. The game ended in a loss, though, 16-6 to the rival Hokies, the 10th consecutive time Virginia Tech has ended Virginia's regular season with an 'L.' So there you have it. A 2-1 start followed by nine straight losses. Not a season to remember for the Wahoos.
The offense struggled mightily all year to score. The piling up of yards was not usually the hard part (368 per game -- not awesome, but not terrible by any means). Scoring was. Virginia notched only 19.8 points per game. I don't know if I remember a smaller figure in my time as a fan of the team. David Watford started every game at quarterback and underwhelmed to say the least. He completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 2,202 yards, eight touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. I thought, and hoped, that maybe Watford had turned the corner during the Georgia Tech game. He played very well, completing 43 of 61 passes for 376 yards, two TDs, and one pick. It was not to be, however, and he was back to his usual self the next week vs. Clemson. Greyson Lambert saw some time and completed 33 of 75 passes (44 percent) for 340 yards, one touchdown, and two INTs. Kevin Parks was a bright spot at tailback. He recorded 1,031 yards on 227 carries (4.5 yards per carry) and scored 11 touchdowns. It was the first 1,000-yard season for a Virginia running back since Alvin Pearman did that in 2004. Khalek Shepherd tallied 304 yards and a touchdown. Watford ran for 208 yards and three touchdowns. Much-balleyhooed freshman running Taquan Mizzell showed a couple flashes, but also dealt with injuries and totaled just 184 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Jake McGee led the team with 43 catches for 395 yards and two scores. WR Darius Jennings had 38 receptions for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Parks also had 38 catches for 329 yards and a touchdown. Mizzell recorded 29 catches, 164 yards, one touchdown and Tim Smith caught 26 balls for 389 yards and one TD.
The defense was great some games and in some stretches (BYU, VMI, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, first quarter vs. Ball State, first half vs. Duke, first half vs. Georgia Tech) but was mostly inconsistent and just not very good. It gave up 33.2 points and 403.6 yards per contest.
Offense: Six starters are back and the team appears to be moving on from Watford. Lambert has been in the QB No. 1 spot since after the spring game. I do believe he is a better passer than Watford. He was a
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| QB Greyson Lambert |
The running game comes back with all of its weapons. Parks is looking to become the first UVa running back to have consecutive 1,000 yards season since Thomas Jones in the 1999 and 2000 seasons. Shepherd is back as a senior and can contribute in the running and passing games. Mizzell is supposedly healthy and smarter and better than in 2013. Daniel Hamm is another player that had a good
moment last year -- 136 yards vs. VMI -- but suffered an injury the next week but is back this year.
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| RB Kevin Parks |
In the receiving attack, McGee left after the spring game and decided to transfer to Florida, leaving the team with inexperience at tight end. Zachary Swanson (19 receptions) and Rob Burns are the top options there. Despite the loss of Tim Smith, the wide receiving cupboard appears to be stocked. Jennings is back and so are some other promising options such as Miles Gooch (two catches, 25 yards; listed as a starter along with Jennings), Keeon Johnson (20 catches, 282 yards, one TD; big target who showed promise last year and many fans thought he should have seen the field more), Kyle Dockins (eight catches, 96 yards), Andre Levrone (redshirted last year), and Canaan Severin (five catches, 43 yards). Senior Dominique Terrell (14 catches, 107 yards) has been hampered in the offseason by a hernia injury. He may see time eventually, but I doubt he will in the UCLA game. And he hasn't exactly lit up the field in past seasons. If several names I just listed perform well, it could be hard for Terrell to get out there. Another interesting prospect to watch is Jamil Kamara, a four-star true freshman. He is not listed on the depth chart for the UCLA game but most think he
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| WR Keeon Johnson |
The offensive line is where a lot of concern lies. It was criticized last year by some, but it did produce a 1,000-yard rusher and both Morgan Moses (Redskins) and Luke Bowanko (Jaguars) were drafted. There has been a lot of mixing and matching, especially in August, but the starting five for the UCLA game from left tackle to right tackle are sophomores Michael Mooney and Ryan Doull, junior Ross Burbank, senior Conner Davis, and sophomore Eric Smith. Quite the young first five. The second five listed only has one senior as well. If it performs solidly, that will bode well for next year. But London needs the offensive line to produce now because he won't be around after this year if the line doesn't do good things for the offense in the regular season.
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| OG Conner Davis |
Those questions remained unanswered.
Defense: Nine starters return to a defense that was wildly inconsistent last year. There was the good -- a big uptick in turnovers forced (21) and sacks (28) from 2012 and there was the bad -- I mentioned the yards and points given up and the games where the unit didn't seem to show up. But, the general feeling around this group is a good one with lots of returners and lots of players with experience in second-year coordinator Jon Tenuta's aggressive system. The two key losses are tackle Brent Urban (40 tackles, 11.5 for loss, one sack in only eight games played) and end Jake Snyder (55 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks).
The starters for the UCLA game along the line are defensive end Mike Moore (16 tackles, 1.5 for loss, one sack), tackles David Dean (49 tackles, 7.5 for loss, four sacks) and Donte Wilkins (12 tackles, two for loss, half a sack), and end Eli Harold (51 tackles, 15 for loss, 8.5 sacks), who has All-ACC potential. The
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| DE Eli Harold |
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| SS Anthony Harris |
Several returners (two pretty impressive in Harris and Harold), a scheme that isn't new, and a pair of five-star recruits should make for a defense that is better than last season. It probably won't be elite but hopefully it is very solid.
Special teams: Kicker Ian Frye was having a good season in 2013 (3 of 4 with a long of 53 yards) when he hurt himself in warmups before the Pitt game -- it was that kind of year. Punter Alec Vozenilek filled in for him and is capable of being accurate, especially within 40 yards, where he made all 11 of his attempts. Frye returns healthy this season. Punting-wise, Vozenilek got 41.2 yards per punt. Shepherd is listed as the primary punt returner though he didn't return any last year and the main two kick returners listed are Mizzell and Jennings, and neither did that great of a job last season. The team as a whole returned kickoffs an average of just 18.6 yards. So in summation, the kicking and punting should be pretty good, but the return game leaves something
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| K Ian Frye |
Schedule, notes, outlook: UCLA, Richmond, Louisville, at BYU, Kent State, Pittsburgh, at Duke, North Carolina, at Georgia Tech, at Florida State, Miami, at Virginia Tech. Ouch. That's all I have to say for a team that is fighting for its coach's job. London has a tall mountain to climb and the odds are stacked against him to get this done. There are only two games where I think you can say with over 50 percent certainty that Virginia will win: Richmond and Kent State, and they are far from very likely. Let's say, though, Virginia does win those games. Where are the other four victories coming from that would get the Cavaliers to six, probably helping London keep his job? BYU again (the Cougars killed Connecticut on Friday night in their opener)? Pittsburgh? Maybe Duke comes back to earth. Miami (Virginia seems to play Miami well at home for some reason)? Maybe the Hokies will continue to be mediocre and the Wahoos can snap the dreaded 10-game losing streak to their rivals. Point is, it is very difficult to find six wins on this schedule without cracking a laugh. Half of the FBS' teams would have a hard time getting to six wins with this schedule, probably.
As has been a theme throughout this preview, the main problems I have with the team are the coaches, the strategies, and the decisions. I will be rooting for the players and I think we have some good ones. But the coaches last year were unable to put together a cohesive team that played well and mistake-free football for a full four quarters. If London can't use his timeouts correctly or understand basic concepts of football, then that severely handicaps the team's talent. Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild has rarely produced a good to great offense in his many years of coaching. It doesn't matter if Lambert is better than Watford or if Parks is capable of 1,500 yards or if Johnson or Kamara are capable of breakout seasons at WR if Fairchild doesn't put them in position to succeed or doesn't call the right plays at the right times. Parks could be a great talent, but the talent is wasted if coach Scott Wachenheim can't get the offensive line to block properly. Harris could once again lead the nation in picks and Harold could continue his upward trend but it doesn't matter if, as a whole, Tenuta's defense gambles too much and leaves gaping holes for opposing QBs, RBs, and WRs. Talent, I think, is not the issue. Utilizing that talent, coaching that talent, and managing and calling a smart game are huge question marks that could spell doom this season. And there is that schedule.
I am pulling for the team and I hope it surprises me. But the 'Hoos could easily play better than last season and end up with four wins because of the strength of the teams they are playing. A nightmare scenario in my mind is the team ends up with five wins (better than last year but there would still be no tangible reward, ie, bowl game) and the administration decides to keep London because five victories would actually be pretty good against this schedule. I think the team would be better off in 2015 and beyond with less than five wins (London fired, new coaching staff comes in that can use the talent properly) or more than five wins (bowl game, uptick in recruiting, fans' mood improves, London can possibly continue to succeed and stay longer).
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| Head coach Mike London |
Win-loss prediction: 3-9 or 4-8
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