No. 9 Louisville at No. 3 Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN
Virginia played a dominant second half against North Carolina on Monday in Chapel Hill to come away with a 75-64 win, a nice rebound after dropping a heartbreaker at home against Duke only two days earlier.
Until there was 3:28 left in the game, North Carolina had managed just 15 second-half points. The Tar Heels ended with a little flourish to get to 64, but never really threatened after Virginia took off midway through the second half, eventually mounting an 18-point lead.
Virginia had four players in double figures led by Malcolm Brogdon with 17, Justin Anderson with 16 (and also seven assists, three rebounds, two steals, and two blocks), London Perrantes with 15, and Anthony Gill with 13. Anderson found his shooting stroke after struggling the past few games and made 3 of 5 3-pointers.
Now, Virginia returns to JPJ to face its third ranked team in as many games. Let's take a closer look at Louisville.
Record: 19-3, 7-2 ACC
Scorers in double figures: Sophomore guard Terry Rozier (18.5), junior forward Montrezl Harrell (15.4), senior guard Chris Jones (13.5), and senior guard/forward Wayne Blackshear (11.2)
Leading rebounders: Harrell (9.2), Rozier (5.5), sophomore forward/center Mangok Mathiang (5.3), freshman forward/center Chinau Onuaku (4.9), Blackshear (4.7), and Jones (4.1)
Assist leaders: Jones (four) and Rozier (2.4)
Notable: There is a noticeable drop off in scoring after those first four scorers. No other player averages more than 3.3 ppg. Five other players average between 6.5 and 17.4 minutes per game and those players all average between two and 3.3 ppg. The most dangerous of those would have to be Mathiang and Onuaku because of their rebounding abilities.
Best win: Last Saturday, Louisville overcame an 18-point deficit in the second half to beat North
Carolina in overtime, 78-68.
Other wins: Minnesota, Jacksonville State, Marshall, Savannah State, Cleveland State, Ohio State, Florida International, Indiana, UNC Wilmington, Western Kentucky, Cal State Northridge, Long Beach State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Miami
Best loss: Louisville, undefeated at the time, took on undefeated and No. 1 Kentucky on Dec. 27 at home but lost, 58-50.
Worst loss: At home vs. Duke, Louisville lost by 11 and was down by as many as 22 at one point.
Other loss: 72-71 at North Carolina
What Louisville does well: Besides having players that have hard-to-pronounce first and last names (check out the full roster), as you might have been able to tell from some of the stats, rebound. Louisville ranks 15th in the country on the boards. In general, the Cardinals are very physical. They play a matchup zone on 'D' and pressure out of that and also full-court press. The pressure is zone-based, however, unlike VCU's "Havoc," which is man-on-man-based pressure. Louisville ranks seventh in the country in steals per game (9.3, VCU is third in the nation), 10th in blocks (5.9), 10th in field-goal percentage defense (37.5), and 20th in points allowed (58.8).
What Louisville doesn't do well: Shooting is not a strength for the Cardinals. It ranks 59th in points per game (73.1), but 155th in field-goal percentage (43.9), 294th in 3-point shooting percentage (30.7), and 265th in free-throw percentage (66.4). The combination of these stats tells you that Louisville gets most of its points off rebounds and easy buckets off pressure defense.
Why Virginia shouldn't be worried: The Louisville offense plays into the hands of the Pack-Line defense. Louisville will get nothing easy in the lane and it isn't a good jump-shooting team. The chances of it getting hot from 3 are less likely than when UVa faced Duke, which is essentially how Duke pulled a win out after being down 11. Clean the boards effectively, and Virginia should pick up this win. On offense, the Cavaliers carved up VCU's pressure and should do the same against Louisville's aggressive defense. Expects some dunks around the rim.
Why Virginia should be worried: Louisville does have shooters that can get hot, though. Rozier, despite shooting 35.2 percent from 3, is leading the ACC in scoring and has averaged 23.3 ppg over the last three games on 33 of 68 shooting. Chris Jones is Louisville's best threat from beyond the arc (36.6). Harrell (a former Virginia Tech commit that changed his mind and went to Louisville after Seth Greenberg got fired) is an absolute beast on the boards and will be very difficult to deal with. He is not a huge threat offensively by himself, but will clean the glass. Louisville's zone pressure could create some problems for the Wahoos. It looks different than VCU's pressure and Louisville can also play some man-to-man. UVa has struggled at times this season when its opponent switches defenses. In particular, zones have given Virginia some struggles.
This game seems headed toward a slow-paced defensive slugfest. I was feeling pretty good when looking at Louisville's offensive stats, but its defense and pressure makes me wonder if Virginia can handle the heat. Virginia is a good rebounding team, but has had problems at times this year on the boards and the Cardinals can certainly take advantage if Virginia has lapses. If Louisville also has a rare good game on offense -- which seems unlikely against Virginia's 'D,' but is certainly possible -- UVa could be in some trouble. If Louisville gets hot shooting, hopefully UVa can match on its offensive end and/or clean the glass. If Louisville struggles shooting and Virginia cleans the glass, UVa could win by double digits. Louisville most likely will just be so-so on offense but stay in it by rebounding well.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
Virginia played a dominant second half against North Carolina on Monday in Chapel Hill to come away with a 75-64 win, a nice rebound after dropping a heartbreaker at home against Duke only two days earlier.
Until there was 3:28 left in the game, North Carolina had managed just 15 second-half points. The Tar Heels ended with a little flourish to get to 64, but never really threatened after Virginia took off midway through the second half, eventually mounting an 18-point lead.
Virginia had four players in double figures led by Malcolm Brogdon with 17, Justin Anderson with 16 (and also seven assists, three rebounds, two steals, and two blocks), London Perrantes with 15, and Anthony Gill with 13. Anderson found his shooting stroke after struggling the past few games and made 3 of 5 3-pointers.
Now, Virginia returns to JPJ to face its third ranked team in as many games. Let's take a closer look at Louisville.
Record: 19-3, 7-2 ACC
Scorers in double figures: Sophomore guard Terry Rozier (18.5), junior forward Montrezl Harrell (15.4), senior guard Chris Jones (13.5), and senior guard/forward Wayne Blackshear (11.2)
Leading rebounders: Harrell (9.2), Rozier (5.5), sophomore forward/center Mangok Mathiang (5.3), freshman forward/center Chinau Onuaku (4.9), Blackshear (4.7), and Jones (4.1)
Assist leaders: Jones (four) and Rozier (2.4)
Notable: There is a noticeable drop off in scoring after those first four scorers. No other player averages more than 3.3 ppg. Five other players average between 6.5 and 17.4 minutes per game and those players all average between two and 3.3 ppg. The most dangerous of those would have to be Mathiang and Onuaku because of their rebounding abilities.
Best win: Last Saturday, Louisville overcame an 18-point deficit in the second half to beat North
Other wins: Minnesota, Jacksonville State, Marshall, Savannah State, Cleveland State, Ohio State, Florida International, Indiana, UNC Wilmington, Western Kentucky, Cal State Northridge, Long Beach State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Miami
Best loss: Louisville, undefeated at the time, took on undefeated and No. 1 Kentucky on Dec. 27 at home but lost, 58-50.
Worst loss: At home vs. Duke, Louisville lost by 11 and was down by as many as 22 at one point.
Other loss: 72-71 at North Carolina
What Louisville does well: Besides having players that have hard-to-pronounce first and last names (check out the full roster), as you might have been able to tell from some of the stats, rebound. Louisville ranks 15th in the country on the boards. In general, the Cardinals are very physical. They play a matchup zone on 'D' and pressure out of that and also full-court press. The pressure is zone-based, however, unlike VCU's "Havoc," which is man-on-man-based pressure. Louisville ranks seventh in the country in steals per game (9.3, VCU is third in the nation), 10th in blocks (5.9), 10th in field-goal percentage defense (37.5), and 20th in points allowed (58.8).
What Louisville doesn't do well: Shooting is not a strength for the Cardinals. It ranks 59th in points per game (73.1), but 155th in field-goal percentage (43.9), 294th in 3-point shooting percentage (30.7), and 265th in free-throw percentage (66.4). The combination of these stats tells you that Louisville gets most of its points off rebounds and easy buckets off pressure defense.
Why Virginia shouldn't be worried: The Louisville offense plays into the hands of the Pack-Line defense. Louisville will get nothing easy in the lane and it isn't a good jump-shooting team. The chances of it getting hot from 3 are less likely than when UVa faced Duke, which is essentially how Duke pulled a win out after being down 11. Clean the boards effectively, and Virginia should pick up this win. On offense, the Cavaliers carved up VCU's pressure and should do the same against Louisville's aggressive defense. Expects some dunks around the rim.
Why Virginia should be worried: Louisville does have shooters that can get hot, though. Rozier, despite shooting 35.2 percent from 3, is leading the ACC in scoring and has averaged 23.3 ppg over the last three games on 33 of 68 shooting. Chris Jones is Louisville's best threat from beyond the arc (36.6). Harrell (a former Virginia Tech commit that changed his mind and went to Louisville after Seth Greenberg got fired) is an absolute beast on the boards and will be very difficult to deal with. He is not a huge threat offensively by himself, but will clean the glass. Louisville's zone pressure could create some problems for the Wahoos. It looks different than VCU's pressure and Louisville can also play some man-to-man. UVa has struggled at times this season when its opponent switches defenses. In particular, zones have given Virginia some struggles.
This game seems headed toward a slow-paced defensive slugfest. I was feeling pretty good when looking at Louisville's offensive stats, but its defense and pressure makes me wonder if Virginia can handle the heat. Virginia is a good rebounding team, but has had problems at times this year on the boards and the Cardinals can certainly take advantage if Virginia has lapses. If Louisville also has a rare good game on offense -- which seems unlikely against Virginia's 'D,' but is certainly possible -- UVa could be in some trouble. If Louisville gets hot shooting, hopefully UVa can match on its offensive end and/or clean the glass. If Louisville struggles shooting and Virginia cleans the glass, UVa could win by double digits. Louisville most likely will just be so-so on offense but stay in it by rebounding well.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
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