No. 3 Virginia at No. 12 North Carolina, 7 p.m. ESPN
Not a lot of time before the game and I had a busy weekend so let's get to the brass tacks.
The Cavaliers dropped a heartbreaker to Duke on Saturday, 69-63, as Duke ended the game on a 22-7 run over the last five minutes to steal a much-needed victory out of JPJ. With a loss, Duke would have had four losses in the ACC and been tied for seventh in the league. Instead, the standings are more bunched up now, though UVa is out in front with one loss while everyone else has at least two losses. Duke is tied with Syracuse at 5-3 in fifth place. The win snapped a 21-game winning streak in Charlottesville for the Wahoos and of course gave them their first loss of the season. The 19-0 mark ends as the second-best undefeated run in school history as the 1980-81 team retains the title at 23-0.
Duke shot very poorly from 3-point land most of the game but stayed in it and never got down by more than 11. When Virginia failed to put the game solidly out of reach, the Blue Devils finally made some long shots down the stretch to take the lead and eventually seal the win. They ended up with six 3s.
North Carolina lost in similar fashion to Louisville on Saturday, giving up an 18-point lead on the road and lost in overtime, 78-68.
The game plan is familiar for the Cavaliers tonight. As usual, pack the lane and get back on defense. Virginia did not do a good job of transition defense against Duke, allowing the Blue Devils 10 fast break points in the first half alone, eight more than the Cavs allow on average per game. That is how Duke got out to a 22-13 lead before the 'Hoos stormed back Saturday. Virginia did a better job in the second half on transition 'D' and was stifling the Devils' second-half offensive attack until a few minutes remained.
North Carolina will try to get out in transition as well. It is probably even more important for the Tar Heels to do that because their shooting stats aren't as good as Duke's. Duke came into the game
Saturday with a top-10 field-goal percentage. North Carolina shoots pretty well, too (49th in the country), but is even less reliable from 3 than Duke (33 percent vs. 37.6 percent). UVa must make UNC work for its shots and make them take shots from around 18 feet or more.
The Tar Heels have two capable post players that can pound it inside that UVa will have to deal with in Kennedy Meeks (12.8 points, 8.1 rebounds per game) and Brice Johnson (11.8 ppg, eight rpg).
UVa did a very good job against Duke star big man, Jahlil Okafor. He still ended up with 10 points and nine boards, but was held greatly below his season average.
UNC's leading scorer is ACC preseason player of the year Marcus Paige at 14.2 ppg. He only shoots 39.6 percent, though, and 39 percent beyond the arc, which leads the Heels. Justin Jackson (10 ppg) and J.P. Tokoto (nine ppg) are other dangerous scorers for the Heels. Isaiah Hicks and Nate Britt average about 15 minutes per game and just a tad over six ppg each. UNC shoots 69.1 percent from the line but Paige is the only consistent player from there at 84 percent. Almost every other major contributor is at or below 70 percent.
Overall, there are reasons to feel good and bad about this game. Virginia had defensive breakdowns Saturday, especially in the first half, and was still on the verge of winning by more than 10 before Duke's barrage from 3 late in the game. Shore up the transition defense, and Virginia should come out ahead in this one. However, the quick turnaround from Saturday is a tough one and although North Carolina did play Saturday, too, the Heels are at home and in the favorable position for playing two games in three days.
UNC shoots worse than Duke from 3-point land, but has two good post players as opposed to the one Duke had. UNC should try to pound it inside even more than Duke. Hopefully, Virginia makes the Heels work on both ends to try their patience and tire them out.
Virginia beat North Carolina, 76-61, last year at JPJ in the only meeting all season. I feel good about this matchup, but don't feel very good about this one game for the 'Hoos, which comes amid a particularly tough stretch in the schedule. Maybe the guys can prove me wrong and pick up what would be a very nice ACC road win in Chapel Hill.
Gut feeling: North Carolina wins by 5-10.
Not a lot of time before the game and I had a busy weekend so let's get to the brass tacks.
The Cavaliers dropped a heartbreaker to Duke on Saturday, 69-63, as Duke ended the game on a 22-7 run over the last five minutes to steal a much-needed victory out of JPJ. With a loss, Duke would have had four losses in the ACC and been tied for seventh in the league. Instead, the standings are more bunched up now, though UVa is out in front with one loss while everyone else has at least two losses. Duke is tied with Syracuse at 5-3 in fifth place. The win snapped a 21-game winning streak in Charlottesville for the Wahoos and of course gave them their first loss of the season. The 19-0 mark ends as the second-best undefeated run in school history as the 1980-81 team retains the title at 23-0.
Duke shot very poorly from 3-point land most of the game but stayed in it and never got down by more than 11. When Virginia failed to put the game solidly out of reach, the Blue Devils finally made some long shots down the stretch to take the lead and eventually seal the win. They ended up with six 3s.
North Carolina lost in similar fashion to Louisville on Saturday, giving up an 18-point lead on the road and lost in overtime, 78-68.
The game plan is familiar for the Cavaliers tonight. As usual, pack the lane and get back on defense. Virginia did not do a good job of transition defense against Duke, allowing the Blue Devils 10 fast break points in the first half alone, eight more than the Cavs allow on average per game. That is how Duke got out to a 22-13 lead before the 'Hoos stormed back Saturday. Virginia did a better job in the second half on transition 'D' and was stifling the Devils' second-half offensive attack until a few minutes remained.
North Carolina will try to get out in transition as well. It is probably even more important for the Tar Heels to do that because their shooting stats aren't as good as Duke's. Duke came into the game
The Tar Heels have two capable post players that can pound it inside that UVa will have to deal with in Kennedy Meeks (12.8 points, 8.1 rebounds per game) and Brice Johnson (11.8 ppg, eight rpg).
UVa did a very good job against Duke star big man, Jahlil Okafor. He still ended up with 10 points and nine boards, but was held greatly below his season average.
UNC's leading scorer is ACC preseason player of the year Marcus Paige at 14.2 ppg. He only shoots 39.6 percent, though, and 39 percent beyond the arc, which leads the Heels. Justin Jackson (10 ppg) and J.P. Tokoto (nine ppg) are other dangerous scorers for the Heels. Isaiah Hicks and Nate Britt average about 15 minutes per game and just a tad over six ppg each. UNC shoots 69.1 percent from the line but Paige is the only consistent player from there at 84 percent. Almost every other major contributor is at or below 70 percent.
Overall, there are reasons to feel good and bad about this game. Virginia had defensive breakdowns Saturday, especially in the first half, and was still on the verge of winning by more than 10 before Duke's barrage from 3 late in the game. Shore up the transition defense, and Virginia should come out ahead in this one. However, the quick turnaround from Saturday is a tough one and although North Carolina did play Saturday, too, the Heels are at home and in the favorable position for playing two games in three days.
UNC shoots worse than Duke from 3-point land, but has two good post players as opposed to the one Duke had. UNC should try to pound it inside even more than Duke. Hopefully, Virginia makes the Heels work on both ends to try their patience and tire them out.
Virginia beat North Carolina, 76-61, last year at JPJ in the only meeting all season. I feel good about this matchup, but don't feel very good about this one game for the 'Hoos, which comes amid a particularly tough stretch in the schedule. Maybe the guys can prove me wrong and pick up what would be a very nice ACC road win in Chapel Hill.
Gut feeling: North Carolina wins by 5-10.
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