Florida State at No. 2 Virginia, 6:30 p.m. Sunday ESPNU
The Cavaliers host another middling ACC squad Sunday in Florida State, a team that has done some good things and some not-as-good things this season.
The Seminoles sit at 15-12 overall and 7-7 in the ACC, well out of NCAA tournament conversation. However, the 7-7 mark places them around fellow conference members Miami, Clemson, Pittsburgh, and N.C. State, all teams that have generated bubble talk at points this season, suggesting maybe that Florida State is better than its record.
Virginia has taken care of all of those teams (N.C. State twice and Pittsburgh most recently Monday with a 61-49 win) and now hopes to do the same against the Seminoles.
The Cavs had another great defensive game against the Panthers but struggled a bit on offense. Like the second half against Wake, though, the offense started to get going finally in the final 20 minutes and Virginia got to the 61-point mark for the second straight game. Interestingly, Virginia scored 52 points against Louisville and then 51 against N.C. State and now 61 twice in a row. Hopefully the upward progression continues. I feel like Virginia got a lot of good looks against Pittsburgh but the iron was a little unkind at times. A few more baskets and UVa wins by 15-20.
Malcolm Brogdon led the Cavs with 18 points against the Panthers, getting back on track with his shooting a bit. He made 50 percent of his field-goal attempts and both of his 3s and all six of his free throws. Anthony Gill had 12 points and London Perrantes had his second consecutive game with double digit points with 10. Marial Shayok made both of his field goals (one was a 3) and one of two free throws for six points, his first time scoring in a game since the 'Hoos faced Georgia Tech on Jan.
22 and Shayok had six then, too.
Taking a closer look at the Seminoles, they have three players averaging double digits in points and have nine players who average at least 10 minutes per game, so they go pretty deep. Looking ahead, they have only one senior, Kiel Turpin, and he averages 5.2 ppg, which means the 'Noles should be much better next season. But let's worry about Sunday first.
The team is led in scoring by Xavier Rathan-Mayes (13.6), Montay Brandon (12.2), and Devon Bookert (11). Aaron Thomas was scoring 14.8 ppg to lead the team but was declared ineligible in December. Brandon (5.5) and Jarquez Smith (4.9) are the team's leading rebounders. Despite considerable length, like a normal FSU team under coach Leonard Hamilton, FSU ranks just 178th in the country in rebounding.
The Seminoles put up 68.2 ppg (161st), dish out just 12.1 assists per game (226th), and shoot 46.4 percent from the field (56th). They shoot 66.8 percent from the line. Depending on if you are looking at ncaa.com or espn.com, the 'Noles shoot either 29 percent or 31 percent from 3. Either way, not good. Crazy things can happen during games, but Bookert is the team's only legitimate threat from 3. And he is a really good one at 43.6 percent on the year. But nobody else on the team that shoots 3s consistently has made more than 30.5 percent. FSU averages about 14 turnovers per game, also not a great figure. I recall the Seminoles being sloppy and turning the ball over quite a bit against UVa last year. That helped the Wahoos beat the 'Noles three times -- by 12 at FSU and at UVa, and by 13 in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.
Defensively, the Seminoles are tough, though perhaps not as tough as normal, allowing 67.2 ppg (198th) and letting teams shoot 41.7 percent (125th). They block a lot of shots but don't make many steals.
FSU has been in a lot of close ACC games. Only three of its 14 ACC games have been decided by double digits -- 20-point loss to Notre Dame, 11-point win over Virginia Tech, and 11-point loss to Syracuse. Those were all at the beginning of the schedule, too. The last 11 have all been decided by nine or fewer points and FSU is 6-5 in those contests. Its best win was by one point over Miami at home and FSU also owns a road win over Clemson. Notably, FSU put a real scare into Duke in Tallahassee on Feb. 9, but fell, 73-70. Since then, the 'Noles are on a two-game winning streak with a four-point win over Georgia Tech and a nine-point victory over BC.
Obviously, with a lot of close scores, a fair offense and a grinding-type defense, FSU likes to muck up games like UVa. Expect this one to be a bit of a plodder. However, FSU's sloppiness and just so-so offensive numbers, paired with a good but not great 'D,' UVa should win fairly comfortably if it plays one of its better games. Lately, it looks like that could come to fruition as the team seems to be looking better and better without injured guard Justin Anderson.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10.
The Cavaliers host another middling ACC squad Sunday in Florida State, a team that has done some good things and some not-as-good things this season.
The Seminoles sit at 15-12 overall and 7-7 in the ACC, well out of NCAA tournament conversation. However, the 7-7 mark places them around fellow conference members Miami, Clemson, Pittsburgh, and N.C. State, all teams that have generated bubble talk at points this season, suggesting maybe that Florida State is better than its record.
Virginia has taken care of all of those teams (N.C. State twice and Pittsburgh most recently Monday with a 61-49 win) and now hopes to do the same against the Seminoles.
The Cavs had another great defensive game against the Panthers but struggled a bit on offense. Like the second half against Wake, though, the offense started to get going finally in the final 20 minutes and Virginia got to the 61-point mark for the second straight game. Interestingly, Virginia scored 52 points against Louisville and then 51 against N.C. State and now 61 twice in a row. Hopefully the upward progression continues. I feel like Virginia got a lot of good looks against Pittsburgh but the iron was a little unkind at times. A few more baskets and UVa wins by 15-20.
Malcolm Brogdon led the Cavs with 18 points against the Panthers, getting back on track with his shooting a bit. He made 50 percent of his field-goal attempts and both of his 3s and all six of his free throws. Anthony Gill had 12 points and London Perrantes had his second consecutive game with double digit points with 10. Marial Shayok made both of his field goals (one was a 3) and one of two free throws for six points, his first time scoring in a game since the 'Hoos faced Georgia Tech on Jan.
Taking a closer look at the Seminoles, they have three players averaging double digits in points and have nine players who average at least 10 minutes per game, so they go pretty deep. Looking ahead, they have only one senior, Kiel Turpin, and he averages 5.2 ppg, which means the 'Noles should be much better next season. But let's worry about Sunday first.
The team is led in scoring by Xavier Rathan-Mayes (13.6), Montay Brandon (12.2), and Devon Bookert (11). Aaron Thomas was scoring 14.8 ppg to lead the team but was declared ineligible in December. Brandon (5.5) and Jarquez Smith (4.9) are the team's leading rebounders. Despite considerable length, like a normal FSU team under coach Leonard Hamilton, FSU ranks just 178th in the country in rebounding.
The Seminoles put up 68.2 ppg (161st), dish out just 12.1 assists per game (226th), and shoot 46.4 percent from the field (56th). They shoot 66.8 percent from the line. Depending on if you are looking at ncaa.com or espn.com, the 'Noles shoot either 29 percent or 31 percent from 3. Either way, not good. Crazy things can happen during games, but Bookert is the team's only legitimate threat from 3. And he is a really good one at 43.6 percent on the year. But nobody else on the team that shoots 3s consistently has made more than 30.5 percent. FSU averages about 14 turnovers per game, also not a great figure. I recall the Seminoles being sloppy and turning the ball over quite a bit against UVa last year. That helped the Wahoos beat the 'Noles three times -- by 12 at FSU and at UVa, and by 13 in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.
Defensively, the Seminoles are tough, though perhaps not as tough as normal, allowing 67.2 ppg (198th) and letting teams shoot 41.7 percent (125th). They block a lot of shots but don't make many steals.
FSU has been in a lot of close ACC games. Only three of its 14 ACC games have been decided by double digits -- 20-point loss to Notre Dame, 11-point win over Virginia Tech, and 11-point loss to Syracuse. Those were all at the beginning of the schedule, too. The last 11 have all been decided by nine or fewer points and FSU is 6-5 in those contests. Its best win was by one point over Miami at home and FSU also owns a road win over Clemson. Notably, FSU put a real scare into Duke in Tallahassee on Feb. 9, but fell, 73-70. Since then, the 'Noles are on a two-game winning streak with a four-point win over Georgia Tech and a nine-point victory over BC.
Obviously, with a lot of close scores, a fair offense and a grinding-type defense, FSU likes to muck up games like UVa. Expect this one to be a bit of a plodder. However, FSU's sloppiness and just so-so offensive numbers, paired with a good but not great 'D,' UVa should win fairly comfortably if it plays one of its better games. Lately, it looks like that could come to fruition as the team seems to be looking better and better without injured guard Justin Anderson.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10.
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