No. 2 Virginia at N.C. State, 8 p.m. NBC29 (not confirmed by TV guide but should be on somewhere local)
As you probably know by now, Virginia junior guard Justin Anderson fractured his pinky finger on his left (shooting) hand against Louisville on Saturday.
He had successful surgery Sunday and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Four weeks from Sunday would have him back March 8, one day after the final regular-season game against Louisville, which means Anderson would play in every ACC tournament game Virginia is in. Five weeks would be March 15, one day after the ACC tournament finals. And six weeks would be March 22, which would be after the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. If Anderson is out six weeks, he would only be back if Virginia advances to the Sweet 16.
Anderson appears to be a quick healer. He sprained his ankle against Maryland on Dec. 3 this year and then played just three days later at VCU, having one of his best games of the season with 21 points on 6 of 7 shooting, 3 of 4 from 3-point land. It would therefore not surprise me at all for Anderson's recovery to be closer to the four-week time frame than the six-week time frame.
When he comes back, it is difficult to know how on point he will be with his shooting, given rust and also because the injury was on his shooting hand. His 3-point percentage had already dropped from just below 60 percent in the non-conference part of the schedule to just under 50 percent in ACC
play. That is his overall percentage, though. In ACC play, Anderson is shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Though his shot accuracy has decreased recently, Anderson will be missed mostly for his versatility. He can penetrate the lane and get to the rack if his shot isn't falling and is a weapon against zone defenses especially with the alley-oop play, such as the one the Cavaliers ran against Virginia Tech near the end of that contest. He is also a fine defender and can get up for rebounds and block shots.
So I am actually less concerned about the team making up Anderson's point total (13.4 ppg), and more concerned about the team picking up the slack in those other categories on defense, the boards, and athleticism.
Points-wise, this team is balanced like last year and is built to withstand missing one player, even if he scores as much as Anderson. The margin for error does go down some. Now Virginia has one less player capable of going off on any one night. But plenty of players can score just a few more points here and there to make up the slack, including Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill, London Perrantes (who has a nice-looking shot and should definitely score more than 5.7 ppg but is comfortable passing the ball), and guys off the bench who will likely get more minutes now with Anderson out, including Marial Shayok, Evan Nolte, and Devon Hall. Nolte has not been shooting the ball well this year (21.6 percent from 3) but made a 3 against Louisville. Shayok has not made a 3 since the Boston College game Jan. 17 but is capable, having made 40 percent on the year. Hall has only shot 10 3s on the year, but has made four, showing he might be ready to shoot more as well.
UVa played the whole second half against Louisville without Anderson and fared well enough. Louisville did outscore the Wahoos by six in the second half, but it was a pretty poor offensive game all-around for Virginia, which shot just 33.3 percent from the field. So I don't expect/think Virginia will shoot that poorly again in a game and it still beat No. 9-ranked Louisville without Anderson playing for a whole half.
Virginia's first test for an entire 40 minutes without Anderson is a road game at N.C. State, a team which will surely be desperate for a resume-building win. The Wolfpack have fallen to 14-10 and 5-6 in the ACC and to an RPI of 58. After Virginia beat the Wolfpack 61-51 on Jan. 7, N.C. State turned around and beat Duke by 12 at home. Since then, though, State has gone just 2-5 with wins over Georgia Tech (by one point in OT) and Florida State by nine and losses against North Carolina by two, Miami by five, Notre Dame by three, Clemson by 11, and Wake Forest by four. Chances are the game will be close.
In the first meeting in Charlottesville, N.C. State had a hard time scoring, especially in the second half, getting just 20 points. Ralston Turner got hot from 3 in the first half and made four 3s overall, scoring 14 points. Kyle Washington had 13 points, and Trevor Lacey had three 3s and nine points. Anderson led Virginia with 16 points (four 3s), Brogdon had 14, Gill had 12, and Mike Tobey had 11. Darion Atkins had four, Perrantes had two, and Shayok had two. Looking at where Anderson's scoring could come from in this game, Perrantes is an obvious choice. He is capable. He had 26 points against Miami and 15 against North Carolina. Atkins can put up four to six more points fairly easily and Shayok can put in more than two points. Hall did not play and Nolte did not score.
N.C. State made nine 3s in that first meeting. It might need to find other ways to generate offense this time if the shots aren't falling like they were at JPJ. That will be State's main challenge. Virginia's main task will of course be finding away to fill in the gaps where Anderson will be missed. I think the Cavs can do it but this will certainly be one of the tougher games Virginia has without Anderson given the caliber of opponent, the desperation of the opponent, and the fact that Virginia has yet to find a rhythm without Anderson in the lineup.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
As you probably know by now, Virginia junior guard Justin Anderson fractured his pinky finger on his left (shooting) hand against Louisville on Saturday.
He had successful surgery Sunday and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Four weeks from Sunday would have him back March 8, one day after the final regular-season game against Louisville, which means Anderson would play in every ACC tournament game Virginia is in. Five weeks would be March 15, one day after the ACC tournament finals. And six weeks would be March 22, which would be after the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. If Anderson is out six weeks, he would only be back if Virginia advances to the Sweet 16.
Anderson appears to be a quick healer. He sprained his ankle against Maryland on Dec. 3 this year and then played just three days later at VCU, having one of his best games of the season with 21 points on 6 of 7 shooting, 3 of 4 from 3-point land. It would therefore not surprise me at all for Anderson's recovery to be closer to the four-week time frame than the six-week time frame.
When he comes back, it is difficult to know how on point he will be with his shooting, given rust and also because the injury was on his shooting hand. His 3-point percentage had already dropped from just below 60 percent in the non-conference part of the schedule to just under 50 percent in ACC
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| Justin Anderson's 13.4 ppg will be missed, but Virginia has the balance to overcome the deficit. |
Though his shot accuracy has decreased recently, Anderson will be missed mostly for his versatility. He can penetrate the lane and get to the rack if his shot isn't falling and is a weapon against zone defenses especially with the alley-oop play, such as the one the Cavaliers ran against Virginia Tech near the end of that contest. He is also a fine defender and can get up for rebounds and block shots.
So I am actually less concerned about the team making up Anderson's point total (13.4 ppg), and more concerned about the team picking up the slack in those other categories on defense, the boards, and athleticism.
Points-wise, this team is balanced like last year and is built to withstand missing one player, even if he scores as much as Anderson. The margin for error does go down some. Now Virginia has one less player capable of going off on any one night. But plenty of players can score just a few more points here and there to make up the slack, including Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill, London Perrantes (who has a nice-looking shot and should definitely score more than 5.7 ppg but is comfortable passing the ball), and guys off the bench who will likely get more minutes now with Anderson out, including Marial Shayok, Evan Nolte, and Devon Hall. Nolte has not been shooting the ball well this year (21.6 percent from 3) but made a 3 against Louisville. Shayok has not made a 3 since the Boston College game Jan. 17 but is capable, having made 40 percent on the year. Hall has only shot 10 3s on the year, but has made four, showing he might be ready to shoot more as well.
UVa played the whole second half against Louisville without Anderson and fared well enough. Louisville did outscore the Wahoos by six in the second half, but it was a pretty poor offensive game all-around for Virginia, which shot just 33.3 percent from the field. So I don't expect/think Virginia will shoot that poorly again in a game and it still beat No. 9-ranked Louisville without Anderson playing for a whole half.
Virginia's first test for an entire 40 minutes without Anderson is a road game at N.C. State, a team which will surely be desperate for a resume-building win. The Wolfpack have fallen to 14-10 and 5-6 in the ACC and to an RPI of 58. After Virginia beat the Wolfpack 61-51 on Jan. 7, N.C. State turned around and beat Duke by 12 at home. Since then, though, State has gone just 2-5 with wins over Georgia Tech (by one point in OT) and Florida State by nine and losses against North Carolina by two, Miami by five, Notre Dame by three, Clemson by 11, and Wake Forest by four. Chances are the game will be close.
In the first meeting in Charlottesville, N.C. State had a hard time scoring, especially in the second half, getting just 20 points. Ralston Turner got hot from 3 in the first half and made four 3s overall, scoring 14 points. Kyle Washington had 13 points, and Trevor Lacey had three 3s and nine points. Anderson led Virginia with 16 points (four 3s), Brogdon had 14, Gill had 12, and Mike Tobey had 11. Darion Atkins had four, Perrantes had two, and Shayok had two. Looking at where Anderson's scoring could come from in this game, Perrantes is an obvious choice. He is capable. He had 26 points against Miami and 15 against North Carolina. Atkins can put up four to six more points fairly easily and Shayok can put in more than two points. Hall did not play and Nolte did not score.
N.C. State made nine 3s in that first meeting. It might need to find other ways to generate offense this time if the shots aren't falling like they were at JPJ. That will be State's main challenge. Virginia's main task will of course be finding away to fill in the gaps where Anderson will be missed. I think the Cavs can do it but this will certainly be one of the tougher games Virginia has without Anderson given the caliber of opponent, the desperation of the opponent, and the fact that Virginia has yet to find a rhythm without Anderson in the lineup.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
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