Miami at No. 18 Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN
If there was ever a gut-check time, it is now for the Virginia men's basketball team. The Cavaliers have lost three in a row for the first time since the 2010-2011 season and haven't had a four-game losing streak since Tony Bennett's first year, 2009-10. North Carolina overwhelmed Virginia on Saturday, 65-41. The Cavaliers' offense was abysmal, as they shot 27.8 percent from the field and just 10 percent (2 of 20) from beyond the arc. Unsurprisingly, the Tar Heels won the battle of the boards, 44-26. It was always going to take a great shooting night for the Wahoos to steal a victory at Chapel Hill, and it was clear it wasn't going to be their night after Justin Jackson sunk 3-pointer after 3-pointer in the first half, Virginia did not, and UNC slowly pulled away. The score was a manageable 34-22 at the half, but the Cavaliers gained no ground in the second half. Jackson finished with 20 points but had 18 of those in the decisive first half and made 4 of his 8 3-pointers. Marial Shayok had 13 for UVa and London Perrantes followed with 12. They were the only two to make a 3-pointer.
Virginia isn't in danger of not making the NCAA tournament -- yet -- but is definitely in danger of just going through the motions in the final part of the season and regrouping for 2017-18 when everyone except Perrantes should return, unless there is a transfer or two. The Cavaliers have a solid set of wins and a strong strength of schedule, and is thought to be a lock for March Madness. However, should the unthinkable happen and UVa lose out, including in its first ACC tournament game, it would be 18-13 and losers of several games in a row. I wouldn't want the committee deciding my fate at that point. At least one more win could guarantee Virginia a .500 ACC record and a 19-11 overall record, which would almost assuredly lock it into the bracket.
That's the worst case scenario. On the flip side, maybe UVa just had a bad week. The Wahoos might have let the Virginia Tech loss linger a bit too long, affecting their performances against Duke and UNC, who also probably happen to be the best teams on the schedule, except for maybe Villanova. Or maybe the Blue Devils and Tar Heels are just that much better than the Cavaliers right now. And let's not forget, the Duke game was 48-44 with a few minutes left. Make a few shots and have a couple bounces go their way, and we are singing a different tune right now having split the past two games. And in the UNC game, Virginia just needed to make shots. The Heels played solid defense, but the Cavaliers missed several open looks. It is rare for almost an entire team to go cold, but that seems to be what happened in that game.
If UVa can put this past week behind it, and focus on getting back to playing good basketball, a strong finish to the season can be salvaged with an upcoming schedule of vs. Miami, at N.C. State, vs. UNC, vs. Pittsburgh.
First up are the Hurricanes, who have the same record as Virginia but are projected by ESPN's Joe Lunardi as a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. He has Virginia as a 5 seed, which has been updated. Miami will be without second-leading scorer Ja'Quan Newton, who is missing his third straight game while suspended for violating a team rule. This is the final game of his suspension. Here's more on the Hurricanes:
Record: 18-8, 8-6 ACC
Leading scorers: Senior guard Davon Reed (15.7), junior guard Ja'Quan Newton (15, suspended), freshman guard Bruce Brown (11.4)
Leading rebounders: Senior forward Kamari Murphy (7.6), Brown (6.2), Reed (4.5)
Assist leaders: Newton (3.6, suspended), Brown (3.5), Reed (2.5)
Notable: Anthony Lawrence Jr. averages 7.2 points, Murphy 6.8, Dewan Huell 6.5, and Dejan Vasiljevic 5.7. With Newton suspended for the third and final game in a row, Miami has just seven players it plays for double-figure minutes. All of them have been listed above except for center Ebuka Izundu, who has started the past two games -- and six this season -- but he only played 13 minutes against Georgia Tech and 25 against Clemson. Brown, Lawrence, and Reed all average one steal each. Izundu gets a block per game.
Best win: then-No. 9 North Carolina at home, 77-62
Worst win: at home over Columbia, 78-67. The Lions, from the Ivy League, are 10-13.
Other wins: Western Carolina, North Florida, Penn, Stanford, Rutgers, Wofford, South Carolina State, Florida Atlantic, George Washington, N.C. State (twice), Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Best loss: at then-No. 4 Louisville, 71-66
Worst loss: at Wake Forest, 96-79
Other losses: Iowa State, Florida, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Duke, Florida State
What Miami does well: Defense. The Hurricanes hold teams to 64.3 points per game (32nd), 41.4 percent shooting (61st), and 33.1 percent from 3 (91st). They pick up 6.5 steals per game (145th) and outrebound opponents by a +5.9 margin per game (30th).
What Miami does not do well: Miami is not great at taking care of the ball. The Hurricanes turn the ball over 13 times per game (146th), own a -.8 turnover margin (228th), and a +.95 assist-turnover ratio (239th). They only have 11.7 assists per game (tied-286th). As such, the Hurricanes struggle a bit on the offensive end, scoring 72.2 points per game (208th). However, their shooting numbers are decent: 46.5 percent from the field (81st), 37 percent from 3 (91st), and 71.4 percent from the charity stripe (134th). The decent shooting numbers but low points per game and good defense tell me Miami is a bit like Virginia and is comfortable playing at a slower pace. Sure enough, Miami is 317th in possessions per game. Virginia is 350th (out of 351; Saint Mary's is last).
I think Virginia really needs to get off to a hot start in this game. Sure, a low-scoring early few minutes won't mean much, and UVa can certainly put together a good second half to pull out the win. But seeing a few buckets drop early would probably do wonders for the Cavaliers' confidence on offense, which has to be at a low point right now. That would, in turn, loosen up what is likely to be a tense crowd, which would then feed back to the team and fuel the defense and offense. It all works together, but the 'Hoos definitely need to step up and just make some shots eventually. Period.
The game will probably be fairly low scoring given both teams' struggles on offense, the loss of Newton for Miami, and the solid defenses. This could be a first-one-to-60 type contest. Miami has won four of five, though, with the only loss coming by five at Louisville. So the Hurricanes come in maybe playing their best ball of the year. The victories, however, weren't that crazy impressive: by five at N.C. State, which has now fired coach Mark Gottfried, by six at home over Virginia Tech, by nine over Georgia Tech at home, and by six over Clemson at home. This stretch for the 'Canes has not come against a who's who of strong ACC teams. All of those teams, except for the Hokies and Wolfpack, are NCAA bubble teams at best. And Virginia Tech, while a projected No. 10 seed right now, appears to be a different team on the road.
These teams played three times last year, with Virginia winning at home, Miami winning at home, and then UVa taking the rubber match in the ACC tournament semifinals. In the first game, UVa was coming in having lost three of four, and Miami was No. 8 in the country and had won eight times in a row, so this situation with Virginia struggling and Miami riding high, feels a little familiar. Hopefully it turns out the same.
Over the course of the season, Virginia has been better than Miami. Right now, Miami has the edge. Can Virginia get back to its potential? Or will the rut deepen? It's tough for me to get a gauge on how the guys will respond, but if they stick to the one-game-at-a-time mentality and focus on this game, they can get back to winning.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
If there was ever a gut-check time, it is now for the Virginia men's basketball team. The Cavaliers have lost three in a row for the first time since the 2010-2011 season and haven't had a four-game losing streak since Tony Bennett's first year, 2009-10. North Carolina overwhelmed Virginia on Saturday, 65-41. The Cavaliers' offense was abysmal, as they shot 27.8 percent from the field and just 10 percent (2 of 20) from beyond the arc. Unsurprisingly, the Tar Heels won the battle of the boards, 44-26. It was always going to take a great shooting night for the Wahoos to steal a victory at Chapel Hill, and it was clear it wasn't going to be their night after Justin Jackson sunk 3-pointer after 3-pointer in the first half, Virginia did not, and UNC slowly pulled away. The score was a manageable 34-22 at the half, but the Cavaliers gained no ground in the second half. Jackson finished with 20 points but had 18 of those in the decisive first half and made 4 of his 8 3-pointers. Marial Shayok had 13 for UVa and London Perrantes followed with 12. They were the only two to make a 3-pointer.
Virginia isn't in danger of not making the NCAA tournament -- yet -- but is definitely in danger of just going through the motions in the final part of the season and regrouping for 2017-18 when everyone except Perrantes should return, unless there is a transfer or two. The Cavaliers have a solid set of wins and a strong strength of schedule, and is thought to be a lock for March Madness. However, should the unthinkable happen and UVa lose out, including in its first ACC tournament game, it would be 18-13 and losers of several games in a row. I wouldn't want the committee deciding my fate at that point. At least one more win could guarantee Virginia a .500 ACC record and a 19-11 overall record, which would almost assuredly lock it into the bracket.
That's the worst case scenario. On the flip side, maybe UVa just had a bad week. The Wahoos might have let the Virginia Tech loss linger a bit too long, affecting their performances against Duke and UNC, who also probably happen to be the best teams on the schedule, except for maybe Villanova. Or maybe the Blue Devils and Tar Heels are just that much better than the Cavaliers right now. And let's not forget, the Duke game was 48-44 with a few minutes left. Make a few shots and have a couple bounces go their way, and we are singing a different tune right now having split the past two games. And in the UNC game, Virginia just needed to make shots. The Heels played solid defense, but the Cavaliers missed several open looks. It is rare for almost an entire team to go cold, but that seems to be what happened in that game.
If UVa can put this past week behind it, and focus on getting back to playing good basketball, a strong finish to the season can be salvaged with an upcoming schedule of vs. Miami, at N.C. State, vs. UNC, vs. Pittsburgh.
First up are the Hurricanes, who have the same record as Virginia but are projected by ESPN's Joe Lunardi as a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. He has Virginia as a 5 seed, which has been updated. Miami will be without second-leading scorer Ja'Quan Newton, who is missing his third straight game while suspended for violating a team rule. This is the final game of his suspension. Here's more on the Hurricanes:
Record: 18-8, 8-6 ACC
Leading scorers: Senior guard Davon Reed (15.7), junior guard Ja'Quan Newton (15, suspended), freshman guard Bruce Brown (11.4)
Leading rebounders: Senior forward Kamari Murphy (7.6), Brown (6.2), Reed (4.5)
Notable: Anthony Lawrence Jr. averages 7.2 points, Murphy 6.8, Dewan Huell 6.5, and Dejan Vasiljevic 5.7. With Newton suspended for the third and final game in a row, Miami has just seven players it plays for double-figure minutes. All of them have been listed above except for center Ebuka Izundu, who has started the past two games -- and six this season -- but he only played 13 minutes against Georgia Tech and 25 against Clemson. Brown, Lawrence, and Reed all average one steal each. Izundu gets a block per game.
Best win: then-No. 9 North Carolina at home, 77-62
Worst win: at home over Columbia, 78-67. The Lions, from the Ivy League, are 10-13.
Other wins: Western Carolina, North Florida, Penn, Stanford, Rutgers, Wofford, South Carolina State, Florida Atlantic, George Washington, N.C. State (twice), Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Best loss: at then-No. 4 Louisville, 71-66
Worst loss: at Wake Forest, 96-79
Other losses: Iowa State, Florida, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Duke, Florida State
What Miami does well: Defense. The Hurricanes hold teams to 64.3 points per game (32nd), 41.4 percent shooting (61st), and 33.1 percent from 3 (91st). They pick up 6.5 steals per game (145th) and outrebound opponents by a +5.9 margin per game (30th).
What Miami does not do well: Miami is not great at taking care of the ball. The Hurricanes turn the ball over 13 times per game (146th), own a -.8 turnover margin (228th), and a +.95 assist-turnover ratio (239th). They only have 11.7 assists per game (tied-286th). As such, the Hurricanes struggle a bit on the offensive end, scoring 72.2 points per game (208th). However, their shooting numbers are decent: 46.5 percent from the field (81st), 37 percent from 3 (91st), and 71.4 percent from the charity stripe (134th). The decent shooting numbers but low points per game and good defense tell me Miami is a bit like Virginia and is comfortable playing at a slower pace. Sure enough, Miami is 317th in possessions per game. Virginia is 350th (out of 351; Saint Mary's is last).
I think Virginia really needs to get off to a hot start in this game. Sure, a low-scoring early few minutes won't mean much, and UVa can certainly put together a good second half to pull out the win. But seeing a few buckets drop early would probably do wonders for the Cavaliers' confidence on offense, which has to be at a low point right now. That would, in turn, loosen up what is likely to be a tense crowd, which would then feed back to the team and fuel the defense and offense. It all works together, but the 'Hoos definitely need to step up and just make some shots eventually. Period.
The game will probably be fairly low scoring given both teams' struggles on offense, the loss of Newton for Miami, and the solid defenses. This could be a first-one-to-60 type contest. Miami has won four of five, though, with the only loss coming by five at Louisville. So the Hurricanes come in maybe playing their best ball of the year. The victories, however, weren't that crazy impressive: by five at N.C. State, which has now fired coach Mark Gottfried, by six at home over Virginia Tech, by nine over Georgia Tech at home, and by six over Clemson at home. This stretch for the 'Canes has not come against a who's who of strong ACC teams. All of those teams, except for the Hokies and Wolfpack, are NCAA bubble teams at best. And Virginia Tech, while a projected No. 10 seed right now, appears to be a different team on the road.
These teams played three times last year, with Virginia winning at home, Miami winning at home, and then UVa taking the rubber match in the ACC tournament semifinals. In the first game, UVa was coming in having lost three of four, and Miami was No. 8 in the country and had won eight times in a row, so this situation with Virginia struggling and Miami riding high, feels a little familiar. Hopefully it turns out the same.
Over the course of the season, Virginia has been better than Miami. Right now, Miami has the edge. Can Virginia get back to its potential? Or will the rut deepen? It's tough for me to get a gauge on how the guys will respond, but if they stick to the one-game-at-a-time mentality and focus on this game, they can get back to winning.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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