No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UNC Wilmington in Orlando, 12:40 p.m. truTV
The Cavaliers bowed out of the ACC tournament in the quarterfinals last Thursday, losing to Notre Dame, 71-58. It was the first time since the 2013 ACC tournament the 'Hoos had not made the semifinals. Kyle Guy and London Perrantes shot a combined 1 for 17 from the field. The team was led by 12 points each from Darius Thompson and Devon Hall. Marial Shayok and Ty Jerome each had 10. Virginia made 7 of its 19 3-pointers but only 38.6 percent of its field goals overall. The Fighting Irish went 5 for 17 beyond the arc but shot 52.2 percent overall. They were led by 21 points and 10 rebounds from Bonzie Colson, 14 points from Matt Farrell, and 12 each from V.J. Beachem and Steve Vasturia. Notre Dame beat Florida State in the ACC semifinals and then fell to Duke in the championship game.
Now, one week later, hopefully the 'Hoos, who earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament Sunday, are right for a challenging first-round game against the upstart Seahawks of UNC Wilmington, a team known for a quick pace and pressing on defense. Here's more on the Colonial Athletic Conference member:
Record: 29-5, 15-3 CAA
Coach: Kevin Keatts, third year, 72-27
Scoring leaders: Sophomore guard C.J. Bryce (17.6), senior guard Chris Flemmings (15.8), senior guard Denzel Ingram (14.5), sophomore forward Devontae Cacok (12.3)
Rebounding leaders: Cacok (9.6), Flemmings (5.5), Bryce (5.5)
Assist leaders: Ingram (5.4), Bryce (3), junior guard Jordon Talley (2.6)
Notable: Seven players average in double-figure minutes. Senior guard Ambrose Mosley averages 8.1
points. Talley records 7.8 points per game. Bryce, Flemmings, Ingram, and Cacok all average one steal per game, and Cacok averages one block.
Best win: vs. East Tennessee State, 68-59, at the beginning of the season; the Buccaneers went 27-7 and are a No. 13 seed in the tournament playing No. 4 seed Florida in Orlando. The winner of their game faces UVa or UNCW.
Worst win: at Northeastern, 66-65; the Huskies went 15-16 and 8-10 in the CAA.
Other wins: Eastern Kentucky, Evansville, Toledo, Western Michigan, Pfeiffer University (Div. II), St. Bonaventure, Radford, Campbell, East Carolina, Towson (twice), Elon, Drexel, Delaware (three times), Hofstra (twice), College of Charleston (twice), James Madison (twice), Northeastern (one other time), William & Mary (twice - once in CAA tournament), Drexel (twice)
Best loss: in Nashville early in the season to Middle Tennessee State, 68-63; The Blue Raiders went 30-4 and are a No. 12 seed as well opposite No. 5 seed Minnesota. As a No. 15 seed last year, they beat No. 2 seed Michigan State in the first round.
Worst loss: at William & Mary, 96-78; The Tribe went 17-14 and 10-8 in the CAA.
Other losses: at Clemson, vs. Charleston, at Elon
Common opponents: Clemson (Tigers won, 87-73; UVa beat Tigers, 77-73); East Carolina (Seahawks beat Pirates, 81-71; UVa beat Pirates, 76-53)
What UNCW does well: The Seahawks can score. They put up 85.2 points per game, 10th in the country. They shoot 48.2 percent, 21st best. Cacok leads the nation with a 79.9 shooting percentage. For someone that shoots enough to get to 12.3 points per game, that is absurd. It will be interesting today to see how he works around the rim that has gotten him that percentage. The Seahawks dish out 16.1 assists per game (29th). On defense, they pick up 6.8 steals per game (95th), force 14.7 turnovers per game (59th) and own a +4.2 turnover margin (sixth). It helps that they take care of the ball as well, just turning it over 10.4 times per game (tied-12th). They also have a +2.1 rebound margin (118th), not bad for a team with no one in the rotation taller than 6-foot-7.
What UNCW doesn't do so well: The Seahawks are pretty good from beyond the arc at 36.6 percent (103rd), but not quite as good as their overall shooting. Mosley is their best bomber, hitting 40.5 percent of his 3-pointers. Jaylen Fornes is at 45 percent, but has only made 18 of 40 all season. Ingram (36.6), Flemmings (35.8), Talley (34.1), and Bryce (33.6) follow as above 30 percent shooters. From the line, they can really struggle, hitting 69.2 percent on free throws (209th). They are pretty good at getting to the line, not great, attempting 691 (tied-127th). They've been pretty good pick-pockets and have forced turnovers, but have fouled a lot as well, 679 times (tied-312th). And despite the positive turnover margin, UNCW gives up a lot of points, 74.9 per game (241st). They've also given up one of the worst field goal percentages in the country, 47.7 (333rd), no doubt a by-product of pressing teams and thus, giving up some easy baskets at the rim. They are better at defending 3-pointers at 33.6 percent (104th).
Why Virginia shouldn't be worried: Keatts is a a former Rick Pitino assistant at Louisville who asked him for advice on how to beat Virginia. The Cavaliers have done infamously well against the Cardinals since they joined the ACC. Pitino said he told Keatts he better ask someone else. The Seahawks do bring a little bit of the Cardinals' style into the game. UNCW does shoot better from beyond the arc, though, than Louisville. A couple games Virginia should look back on the past two seasons to prepare for this one is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have one of the most aggressive presses in the land, aggressive enough to earn the moniker, "Press Virginia." Virginia beat WVU last year but lost this year in a close game at home. The Cavaliers have handled the Mountaineers' press well at times and at other times, not so well. The point is that UVa has seen one of the best presses college basketball has to offer, so that is great preparation. In last season's unfortunate collapse against Syracuse in the Elite Eight, the Orange used a press to get back in the game. I think that surprised Virginia. This one shouldn't surprise the Cavaliers as much since they have known for a few days that UNCW would be their opponent, and the press is something for which it is known. As I mentioned earlier, Virginia has a height advantage at certain spots and overall, so they might be able to pass over the top of the press effectively, and they should also be able to disrupt shorter players' shots. If Virginia can finish at the rim on offense, that will go a long way toward winning. UNCW puts teams on the line a lot, so Virginia will have to convert on its chances. Breaking the press and crisp execution in the half court can lead to a high field goal percentage as well. Sometimes, Virginia can go on scoring droughts, and hopefully playing a spotty defense will help those dry spells be fewer and farther between. UVa played pretty well on offense against some of the teams on its schedule not known for defense: Virginia Tech (71, 78 points in OT), Wake Forest (79), Clemson (77), Boston College (71), Pitt (76 points in OT, 67). Generally, under coach Tony Bennett, UVa wins when it reaches the 70-point barrier.
Why Virginia should be worried: Isaiah Wilkins, who has been getting over a bout with step throat for a couple weeks, has not practiced this week, and he said he is a game-time decision. Virginia could really use Wilkins' height, rebounding, and energy. Some of the Cavaliers' best games come when Wilkins is on point. We know UNCW, as an underdog, will bring great energy and a fighting mentality. Unfortunately, UVa does not have those types of players in spades, and Wilkins is one of them. Keatts is a darn good coach, seen as an up-and-comer in the mid-major ranks. Just 44 years old, he was an assistant on Louisville's 2013 team that won the championship before leaving for UNCW the next year, where he has improved the Seahawks each year. They frightened Duke in the first round last season as a No. 13 seed, falling 93-85. UNCW led, 43-40, at halftime. Keatts is from Lynchburg -- graduated from Heritage High -- and coached at Hargrave Military Academy in Chatham from 2003-11, compiling a 262-17 record and won two national titles. Shorter teams with guards that can penetrate can give UVa problems, and this one can pretty shoot well, too. The Seahawks foul a lot, so if this game is called fairly, Virginia should get to the line a lot as I mentioned. Can the Cavaliers knock down some free throws? That has been a problem in some losses this season. As we know, UVa has given up three double-digit leads this year -- Villanova, Syracuse, Virginia Tech -- and poor free throw shooting or not getting to the line has contributed to those losses, and it also was a major factor in losing to Miami at home in overtime.
Ah, the 12-5 matchup. Not a place high seeds usually want to be. The pairing has become known for upsets through the years, and Virginia was a victim in 2001 when Gonzaga, still very much just getting its program going then, took down the Cavaliers.
As I laid out, there are reasons to feel good, and some reasons to not feel good about this matchup. One thing you can always look at is: How would this team have done playing in a tougher conference? Clemson handled UNCW this season fairly easily. The Tigers, as we know, were a good team that could not win close ACC games. We could probably slot UNCW below Clemson in the ACC standings if the Seahawks were in the conference. The 29-5 record is shiny and gaudy, but UNCW was not particularly challenged with a daunting schedule. Out of conference, its best win was probably 81-80 at St. Bonaventure, a team that went 20-12 and 11-7 in the Atlantic 10. Virginia went 22-10, 11-7 in the rugged ACC, and we know could've been even better, having lost some close games and given up some leads. On the other hand, all but the Clemson loss for UNCW was by single digits, and two were by one point. So you could say UNCW is closer to a 31-3-type squad. There's no doubt it is among the best mid-majors this year, and now the Seahawks get a chance to show their stuff on the big stage. There's also no doubt they will come out gunning for the Wahoos, who need to be ready. Virginia needs to not be lackadaisical and take this team very seriously. Hopefully, what UNCW has done the past couple seasons should be enough to get the players' attention.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
The Cavaliers bowed out of the ACC tournament in the quarterfinals last Thursday, losing to Notre Dame, 71-58. It was the first time since the 2013 ACC tournament the 'Hoos had not made the semifinals. Kyle Guy and London Perrantes shot a combined 1 for 17 from the field. The team was led by 12 points each from Darius Thompson and Devon Hall. Marial Shayok and Ty Jerome each had 10. Virginia made 7 of its 19 3-pointers but only 38.6 percent of its field goals overall. The Fighting Irish went 5 for 17 beyond the arc but shot 52.2 percent overall. They were led by 21 points and 10 rebounds from Bonzie Colson, 14 points from Matt Farrell, and 12 each from V.J. Beachem and Steve Vasturia. Notre Dame beat Florida State in the ACC semifinals and then fell to Duke in the championship game.
Now, one week later, hopefully the 'Hoos, who earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament Sunday, are right for a challenging first-round game against the upstart Seahawks of UNC Wilmington, a team known for a quick pace and pressing on defense. Here's more on the Colonial Athletic Conference member:
Record: 29-5, 15-3 CAA
Coach: Kevin Keatts, third year, 72-27
Scoring leaders: Sophomore guard C.J. Bryce (17.6), senior guard Chris Flemmings (15.8), senior guard Denzel Ingram (14.5), sophomore forward Devontae Cacok (12.3)
Rebounding leaders: Cacok (9.6), Flemmings (5.5), Bryce (5.5)
Assist leaders: Ingram (5.4), Bryce (3), junior guard Jordon Talley (2.6)
Notable: Seven players average in double-figure minutes. Senior guard Ambrose Mosley averages 8.1
Best win: vs. East Tennessee State, 68-59, at the beginning of the season; the Buccaneers went 27-7 and are a No. 13 seed in the tournament playing No. 4 seed Florida in Orlando. The winner of their game faces UVa or UNCW.
Worst win: at Northeastern, 66-65; the Huskies went 15-16 and 8-10 in the CAA.
Other wins: Eastern Kentucky, Evansville, Toledo, Western Michigan, Pfeiffer University (Div. II), St. Bonaventure, Radford, Campbell, East Carolina, Towson (twice), Elon, Drexel, Delaware (three times), Hofstra (twice), College of Charleston (twice), James Madison (twice), Northeastern (one other time), William & Mary (twice - once in CAA tournament), Drexel (twice)
Best loss: in Nashville early in the season to Middle Tennessee State, 68-63; The Blue Raiders went 30-4 and are a No. 12 seed as well opposite No. 5 seed Minnesota. As a No. 15 seed last year, they beat No. 2 seed Michigan State in the first round.
Worst loss: at William & Mary, 96-78; The Tribe went 17-14 and 10-8 in the CAA.
Other losses: at Clemson, vs. Charleston, at Elon
Common opponents: Clemson (Tigers won, 87-73; UVa beat Tigers, 77-73); East Carolina (Seahawks beat Pirates, 81-71; UVa beat Pirates, 76-53)
What UNCW does well: The Seahawks can score. They put up 85.2 points per game, 10th in the country. They shoot 48.2 percent, 21st best. Cacok leads the nation with a 79.9 shooting percentage. For someone that shoots enough to get to 12.3 points per game, that is absurd. It will be interesting today to see how he works around the rim that has gotten him that percentage. The Seahawks dish out 16.1 assists per game (29th). On defense, they pick up 6.8 steals per game (95th), force 14.7 turnovers per game (59th) and own a +4.2 turnover margin (sixth). It helps that they take care of the ball as well, just turning it over 10.4 times per game (tied-12th). They also have a +2.1 rebound margin (118th), not bad for a team with no one in the rotation taller than 6-foot-7.
What UNCW doesn't do so well: The Seahawks are pretty good from beyond the arc at 36.6 percent (103rd), but not quite as good as their overall shooting. Mosley is their best bomber, hitting 40.5 percent of his 3-pointers. Jaylen Fornes is at 45 percent, but has only made 18 of 40 all season. Ingram (36.6), Flemmings (35.8), Talley (34.1), and Bryce (33.6) follow as above 30 percent shooters. From the line, they can really struggle, hitting 69.2 percent on free throws (209th). They are pretty good at getting to the line, not great, attempting 691 (tied-127th). They've been pretty good pick-pockets and have forced turnovers, but have fouled a lot as well, 679 times (tied-312th). And despite the positive turnover margin, UNCW gives up a lot of points, 74.9 per game (241st). They've also given up one of the worst field goal percentages in the country, 47.7 (333rd), no doubt a by-product of pressing teams and thus, giving up some easy baskets at the rim. They are better at defending 3-pointers at 33.6 percent (104th).
Why Virginia shouldn't be worried: Keatts is a a former Rick Pitino assistant at Louisville who asked him for advice on how to beat Virginia. The Cavaliers have done infamously well against the Cardinals since they joined the ACC. Pitino said he told Keatts he better ask someone else. The Seahawks do bring a little bit of the Cardinals' style into the game. UNCW does shoot better from beyond the arc, though, than Louisville. A couple games Virginia should look back on the past two seasons to prepare for this one is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have one of the most aggressive presses in the land, aggressive enough to earn the moniker, "Press Virginia." Virginia beat WVU last year but lost this year in a close game at home. The Cavaliers have handled the Mountaineers' press well at times and at other times, not so well. The point is that UVa has seen one of the best presses college basketball has to offer, so that is great preparation. In last season's unfortunate collapse against Syracuse in the Elite Eight, the Orange used a press to get back in the game. I think that surprised Virginia. This one shouldn't surprise the Cavaliers as much since they have known for a few days that UNCW would be their opponent, and the press is something for which it is known. As I mentioned earlier, Virginia has a height advantage at certain spots and overall, so they might be able to pass over the top of the press effectively, and they should also be able to disrupt shorter players' shots. If Virginia can finish at the rim on offense, that will go a long way toward winning. UNCW puts teams on the line a lot, so Virginia will have to convert on its chances. Breaking the press and crisp execution in the half court can lead to a high field goal percentage as well. Sometimes, Virginia can go on scoring droughts, and hopefully playing a spotty defense will help those dry spells be fewer and farther between. UVa played pretty well on offense against some of the teams on its schedule not known for defense: Virginia Tech (71, 78 points in OT), Wake Forest (79), Clemson (77), Boston College (71), Pitt (76 points in OT, 67). Generally, under coach Tony Bennett, UVa wins when it reaches the 70-point barrier.
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| Isaiah Wilkins hasn't been feeling well for a couple weeks. Virginia will really miss his rebounding, effort, and energy if he can't go today. |
Ah, the 12-5 matchup. Not a place high seeds usually want to be. The pairing has become known for upsets through the years, and Virginia was a victim in 2001 when Gonzaga, still very much just getting its program going then, took down the Cavaliers.
As I laid out, there are reasons to feel good, and some reasons to not feel good about this matchup. One thing you can always look at is: How would this team have done playing in a tougher conference? Clemson handled UNCW this season fairly easily. The Tigers, as we know, were a good team that could not win close ACC games. We could probably slot UNCW below Clemson in the ACC standings if the Seahawks were in the conference. The 29-5 record is shiny and gaudy, but UNCW was not particularly challenged with a daunting schedule. Out of conference, its best win was probably 81-80 at St. Bonaventure, a team that went 20-12 and 11-7 in the Atlantic 10. Virginia went 22-10, 11-7 in the rugged ACC, and we know could've been even better, having lost some close games and given up some leads. On the other hand, all but the Clemson loss for UNCW was by single digits, and two were by one point. So you could say UNCW is closer to a 31-3-type squad. There's no doubt it is among the best mid-majors this year, and now the Seahawks get a chance to show their stuff on the big stage. There's also no doubt they will come out gunning for the Wahoos, who need to be ready. Virginia needs to not be lackadaisical and take this team very seriously. Hopefully, what UNCW has done the past couple seasons should be enough to get the players' attention.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
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