No. 4 Virginia vs. Middle Tennessee in Battle 4 Atlantis
Nassau, Bahamas, 9:30 p.m. Wednesday ESPN2
It's time for my annual tradition of predicting each Virginia men's basketball game's result. I'm generally pretty good at this, but Tony Bennett and the Wahoos consistently outperform my expectations, especially last season. Only one team, 2015-16, underperformed according to my expectations, but that ended up being the best team under Bennett in postseason play, the 2015-16 squad. My guesses only take into account regular-season games. Here's how I've done in past seasons:
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9): +2
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7): +1
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7): +4
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2): +1
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +4
My 2015-16 prediction: 25-5 (14-4); actual record: 24-6 (13-5): -1
My 2016-17 prediction: 20-10 (10-8); actual record: 21-9 (11-7): +1
My 2017-18 prediction: 20-10 (11-7); actual record: 28-2 (17-1): +8
So, on average, I underestimate the Cavaliers by 2.5 wins.
Virginia is 3-0 after absolutely mauling an overmatched Coppin State team Friday. The Cavaliers put up 97 points, the most in the Tony Bennett era. But the Eagles, coached by former Maryland standout Juan Dixon, won five games last season, and this is likely going to be a tough year, too. It was another win that doesn't mean anything about the outlook of this season. Ok, here's the schedule:
vs. Towson - W (73-42)
vs. GW - W (76-57)
vs. Coppin St. - W (97-40)
vs. Middle Tennessee in Bahamas - W
vs. Butler or Dayton in Bahamas - W
vs. Stanford, Wisconsin, Florida, or Oklahoma in Bahamas - W
at Maryland - W
vs. Morgan State - W
vs. VCU - W
at South Carolina - W
vs. William & Mary - W
vs. Marshall - W
vs. Florida State - W
at Boston College - W
at Clemson - L
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Duke - L
vs. Wake Forest - W
at Notre Dame - W
at N.C. State - L
vs. Miami - W
vs. Duke - W
at North Carolina - W
vs. Notre Dame - W
at Virginia Tech - L
at Louisville - W
vs. Georgia Tech - W
vs. Pittsburgh - W
at Syracuse - W
vs. Louisville - W
Prediction: 26-4 (14-4 ACC)
The South Carolina road game, possibly the Maryland road game, Boston College away (almost won at UVa last year), and Virginia Tech at home (just seems to be that way) will be tough games I've marked down as wins. UNC is, to me, overrated, but Virginia could certainly lose in Chapel Hill if it receives an unfavorable whistle.
A result such as this should put UVa in solid No. 1 seed range for the NCAA tournament. Whether UVa wins more than 26 or fewer than 26, it'll come down to March. Virginia has to start performing better in the Big Dance.
Nassau, Bahamas, 9:30 p.m. Wednesday ESPN2
It's time for my annual tradition of predicting each Virginia men's basketball game's result. I'm generally pretty good at this, but Tony Bennett and the Wahoos consistently outperform my expectations, especially last season. Only one team, 2015-16, underperformed according to my expectations, but that ended up being the best team under Bennett in postseason play, the 2015-16 squad. My guesses only take into account regular-season games. Here's how I've done in past seasons:
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9): +2
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7): +1
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7): +4
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2): +1
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +4
My 2015-16 prediction: 25-5 (14-4); actual record: 24-6 (13-5): -1
My 2016-17 prediction: 20-10 (10-8); actual record: 21-9 (11-7): +1
My 2017-18 prediction: 20-10 (11-7); actual record: 28-2 (17-1): +8
 |
| Tony Bennett is smiling because I tend to underestimate his team, just a little. |
So, on average, I underestimate the Cavaliers by 2.5 wins.
Virginia is 3-0 after absolutely mauling an overmatched Coppin State team Friday. The Cavaliers put up 97 points, the most in the Tony Bennett era. But the Eagles, coached by former Maryland standout Juan Dixon, won five games last season, and this is likely going to be a tough year, too. It was another win that doesn't mean anything about the outlook of this season. Ok, here's the schedule:
vs. Towson - W (73-42)
vs. GW - W (76-57)
vs. Coppin St. - W (97-40)
vs. Middle Tennessee in Bahamas - W
vs. Butler or Dayton in Bahamas - W
vs. Stanford, Wisconsin, Florida, or Oklahoma in Bahamas - W
at Maryland - W
vs. Morgan State - W
vs. VCU - W
at South Carolina - W
vs. William & Mary - W
vs. Marshall - W
vs. Florida State - W
at Boston College - W
at Clemson - L
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Duke - L
vs. Wake Forest - W
at Notre Dame - W
at N.C. State - L
vs. Miami - W
vs. Duke - W
at North Carolina - W
vs. Notre Dame - W
at Virginia Tech - L
at Louisville - W
vs. Georgia Tech - W
vs. Pittsburgh - W
at Syracuse - W
vs. Louisville - W
Prediction: 26-4 (14-4 ACC)
The South Carolina road game, possibly the Maryland road game, Boston College away (almost won at UVa last year), and Virginia Tech at home (just seems to be that way) will be tough games I've marked down as wins. UNC is, to me, overrated, but Virginia could certainly lose in Chapel Hill if it receives an unfavorable whistle.
A result such as this should put UVa in solid No. 1 seed range for the NCAA tournament. Whether UVa wins more than 26 or fewer than 26, it'll come down to March. Virginia has to start performing better in the Big Dance.
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