At the beginning of May, I promised a post looking ahead to the next UVa basketball season, and it's been a while, but that's what I am getting to now, right before we close out June. I'm not sure of the last time I didn't have at least one post in a month, and June 2018 won't be the end of that streak.
First, let's recap what happened so far in the offseason.
- In early April, guard Casey Morsell committed to the Cavaliers. He arrives on Grounds in 2019, not this upcoming season. Also, Virginia lost associate coach Ron Sanchez to Charlotte, where he became the 49ers' head coach.
- On April 24, I delivered my 2017-18 season awards/evaluations. MVP: Devon Hall; most improved: De'Andre Hunter; most disappointing: Jay Huff; best freshman: Marco Anthony; best win: Duke; worst loss: UMBC.
- In early May, UVa picked up a commitment from post player Francisco Caffaro and also added Alabama transfer Braxton Key. Caffaro is eligible this upcoming season. Key might be. More on that in a bit.
- The NBA draft was held June 21, and Hall was rewarded for all his hard work the past five years by being selected with the 53rd pick by the Oklahoma City Thunder. Big props to him.
- Isaiah Wilkins was not picked in the draft but is on the Houston Rockets summer league team, plus that link contains news on London Perrantes and Jack Salt.
Ok, let's get to next year.
How will Virginia respond to the loss to UMBC? It's not fun to talk about, but it is a storyline that will follow the Cavaliers all year, and especially hound them once the NCAA tournament starts (and Virginia will likely make it again), so we might as well address it (and I know the team will). Virginia made the wrong kind of history by becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in tournament history. The thing is, coach Tony Bennett has built a very good program at Virginia. That's something Virginia fans and opponents need to realize. This team is one to be reckoned with
year after year. This has been one of the best, if not the best, team in the ACC since 2013-14 (in that time, though, Duke and UNC have won national titles, and UVa has not). With that comes great respect, which is getting earned throughout the ACC and by coaches all over the country, who often gush about Bennett, but respect has come a little more slowly from some analysts and opposing fans who dislike Virginia's style of play. But teams know the Cavaliers are good, and that puts targets on their backs.
Virginia is probably going to have another very good regular season, and it is certainly possible it will earn another NCAA tournament No. 1 seed. So the pressure will be there once again. Virginia must rise above it. This is all part of becoming the program fans want in Charlottesville. UVa's style is great for the grind of the regular season, and that has been proven time and time again. But it is time to win in March. Bennett and UVa need to figure out how to do that more regularly. Certainly, the players have already decided to use the UMBC loss as motivation, and they are saying the right things. Kyle Guy wrote an emotional Facebook post after the loss (and he actually had also written one before the game) detailing what he went through in the weeks after helping make history. But he said he now has a "profound hate against losing" he didn't have before. Hopefully, the players learned from the loss and won't take that position for granted again. That was one of the more shocking things about the defeat, that UVa let its guard down. Bennett prides himself on running a humble program. But that night, Virginia came in unprepared (not all the team's fault, because of Hunter's injury), but also a little big-headed.
Who will be the team leaders? Hall and Wilkins have graduated, the former the quiet leader, the latter the vocal one. Virginia shouldn't have many problems filling the leadership void, because Salt will be a senior, and Guy and Ty Jerome are juniors now who have gotten lots of court time. And Hunter is on the more reserved side, but will command respect as possibly Virginia's best player.
How good will Hunter be? He will be a redshirt sophomore, and he was possibly going to be a first-round pick in this year's NBA draft before getting hurt and then returning to Charlottesville. He's already being touted as one of the best players in the country ahead of next season and as a possible 2019 lottery pick. He's very versatile and can play in the post and on the outside, guard multiple
positions with superior length and some quickness, and his 3-point shot is getting better. Malcolm Brogdon didn't even garner this much attention heading into his senior season. Hunter was arguably Virginia's best player in ACC play this past season, and unless Guy or Jerome take unexpected jumps, Hunter will probably be Virginia's best overall player. I could see a situation in which Guy might score more than Hunter based on volume of shots and the fact that he will take more 3s than Hunter, but Hunter's all-around game will likely make him the Cavaliers' most valuable player.
Can Guy and Jerome develop even further? I asked basically the same question in last year's post about the 2017-18 season, and they did both get better overall, though both shot somewhat worse from beyond the arc. Jerome went from 39.7 to 37.9 percent, and Guy, after starting out the year strong, finished at 39.2 percent, down from 49.5. But Jerome continued to look mature beyond his years running the point, and Guy started to get more creative in how he scored with teams keying on his 3-point shooting. He was able to drive the lane more, and Jerome has developed a craftiness inside the paint as well. Both must continue to develop on the offensive end, whether it is picking their spots better and getting more efficient shots or getting teammates involved, and they need to get better on defense, too.
The emergence of Hunter could help both settle into more complementary roles where maybe the target won't be on them as much. With all three playing well and feeding off each other, the offense
has the chance to be very good. Just think about some of the great things Guy and Jerome did last year -- 29 points for Guy at VCU, 31 for Jerome vs. BC, plus his cold-blooded 3 at Duke -- and then imagine: Neither is expected to be the team's best player next season. Wow.
Will scoring in the post be better? This has been a problem the past couple of seasons. Virginia went cold shooting jumpers against UMBC, and there was no true post threat to turn to. It's been this way since Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey graduated, and Austin Nichols was kicked off the team after two games the following season. Salt and Wilkins had their moments, but weren't consistent. This is Salt's last season coming up, and I don't expect him to take a huge jump. Hunter is capable of scoring in the post, but he is not a true post player, and he can be used in so many different ways, so he's not going to be limited in the way he gets utilized. Mamadi Diakite is still very promising, and he took a nice jump last season from 3.8 points and 2.6 rebounds to 5.4 points and 3 rebounds per game. This will be his fourth year in the program and third playing. I've harped on it before, but he just needs to harness his athleticism, and then unleash it on foes in a controlled and unrelenting way. He's getting closer, but the light still hasn't fully turned on yet. But we all saw how Hunter took off last season after a slow start, so it's possible for the light to switch fully on in the middle of the season. Jay Huff was disappointing, but maybe he could step up and surprise us. Glimpses from him, however, indicated he likes outside shooting just as much if not more than being in the post, plus his defense needs work. Francesco Badocchi is coming off a redshirt year and has been described as a pogo stick in the past. He looks longer than Wilkins, but is still expected to be raw. Any skills he shows on offense in his first season on the court will be an added bonus. Then there's the addition of two new guys who could help down low ...
Can Braxton Key and Francisco Caffaro help the team? For Key, the question is availability. For Caffaro, it is development. Both players can help some in the post, but Key is more of a forward in the mold of Hunter, while Caffaro is a 7-footer who is a true post player. When Key transferred to Virginia, it was believed he would sit out this upcoming season and then be eligible next year. But it turns out Key is asking the NCAA to grant him eligibility this coming season. The reason such a wish gets granted is usually because a player moves to a school closer to where an ill family member lives (this is how former UVa QB Phillips Sims got eligible right away for the Cavaliers). I'm not sure if that is true for Key, but apparently the "immediate family" rule the NCAA had has been relaxed. Key is a significant player who dropped off some last season, but two years ago as a freshman, he averaged 12 points and 5.7 rebounds. He would bring depth and another offensive weapon to the floor for the Cavaliers. The immediate thought on Caffaro was he would redshirt in order for his body to develop. But it looks like Caffaro could be ahead of schedule and ready to contribute this coming season. If one or both of Key and Caffaro can produce in a meaningful way, watch out.
What will Marco Anthony's role be? Anthony, who will be a true sophomore, didn't get a ton of
time last season but did fill in admirably against Louisville at home when Nigel Johnson was suspended, scoring 10 points in 18 minutes of action, making 2 of 3 from beyond the arc. With a step up in his game and Hall having graduated, he could certainly have a spot in the rotation, but I suppose the eligibility or ineligibility of Key could play into that. Again, though, Key is someone who could spend time in the post, while Anthony is definitely a perimeter player. Anthony is strong and built well like Brogdon, but he's just 6-foot-4 or so. It's kind of hard to know at this point how much Anthony will contribute, but I think he has the capability to be a solid role player. Once Morsell arrives in 2019, it could be difficult for Anthony to find time on the floor if he doesn't develop much. But we are often surprised by how much players improve under Bennett, so let's see what happens with Anthony.
How much will Kihei Clark and Kody Stattmann contribute? These two, along with Caffaro, are the true freshmen who will be on the roster for this upcoming season. I think I actually neglected to write about their commitments in 2017 because it was football season. Stattmann pledged in late
August, and Clark signed on in early October. Like Caffaro, it is unknown if they will redshirt or play. Unless there's a late graduate transfer addition at point guard, it seems as if Clark, who is just 5-9 and about 150 pounds, will play. He would be the backup to Jerome, though Anthony and Guy can also handle the ball. Clark would have the role that Johnson did a season ago. Clark, who is from California, is very undersized and needs to get stronger, but he's quick and crafty, can knock down a shot, is a solid passer, and is said to have no fear despite his size.
Stattmann, a wing from Australia, is 6-7 and 178 pounds, which is pretty skinny. For comparison, Hunter is 6-7 but listed at 222. Guy is 6-2, but is 175. I think it is more likely that Stattmann redshirts than Clark, because he won't be needed as much, with Hunter, Anthony, and possibly Key ahead of him on the depth chart. Stattmann is known as a very good 3-point shooter. I don't know much about his rebounding ability and if he could possibly play in the post as he develops. It seems like he could be slotted in a few spots, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get redshirted so that he can develop his game and body, and so that the coaches can watch him closely and figure out how he will fit into the team in coming seasons.
Who is Virginia playing? In April, the ACC announced the conference opponents for each team. The ACC is playing an 18-game schedule again. At home and on the road, Virginia will face Duke,
Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Notre Dame. At home only, UVa draws Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest. On the road only, the Cavaliers go to Boston College, Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, and Syracuse.
What about nonconference opponents? We don't know all of those matchups, but Virginia is slated to host VCU, Marshall, George Washington, and William & Mary. The Cavaliers will travel to South Carolina and also Maryland for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Virginia will also participate in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas from Nov. 21-23. There's no bracket yet, but the other teams in the event are Butler, Florida, Wisconsin, Dayton, Stanford, Oklahoma, and Middle Tennessee State.
Next year's team has a chance to be very good and possibly one of the best in the nation again. Eclipsing the regular-season success of the 2017-18 team might be asking too much, but we are looking for more success in March anyway. The 2014-15 team went 28-2 in the regular season, but lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The next team in 2015-16 went 24-6 in the regular season but made the Elite Eight, so that is deemed the more successful squad. Hopefully the 2018-19 Cavaliers can follow a similar pattern. We know what we are getting, for the most part, out of Guy, Jerome, Hunter, Salt and perhaps Diakite. What we don't know, and what can take the team from very good to excellent, is what Huff, Anthony, Badocchi, Clark, Stattmann, and Key, if eligible, bring to the table as they develop and in some cases, fans see them for the first time. Despite how last season ended, it is still an exciting time to be a Wahoo.
First, let's recap what happened so far in the offseason.
- In early April, guard Casey Morsell committed to the Cavaliers. He arrives on Grounds in 2019, not this upcoming season. Also, Virginia lost associate coach Ron Sanchez to Charlotte, where he became the 49ers' head coach.
- On April 24, I delivered my 2017-18 season awards/evaluations. MVP: Devon Hall; most improved: De'Andre Hunter; most disappointing: Jay Huff; best freshman: Marco Anthony; best win: Duke; worst loss: UMBC.
- In early May, UVa picked up a commitment from post player Francisco Caffaro and also added Alabama transfer Braxton Key. Caffaro is eligible this upcoming season. Key might be. More on that in a bit.
- The NBA draft was held June 21, and Hall was rewarded for all his hard work the past five years by being selected with the 53rd pick by the Oklahoma City Thunder. Big props to him.
- Isaiah Wilkins was not picked in the draft but is on the Houston Rockets summer league team, plus that link contains news on London Perrantes and Jack Salt.
Ok, let's get to next year.
How will Virginia respond to the loss to UMBC? It's not fun to talk about, but it is a storyline that will follow the Cavaliers all year, and especially hound them once the NCAA tournament starts (and Virginia will likely make it again), so we might as well address it (and I know the team will). Virginia made the wrong kind of history by becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in tournament history. The thing is, coach Tony Bennett has built a very good program at Virginia. That's something Virginia fans and opponents need to realize. This team is one to be reckoned with
 |
| Kyle Guy slumps over in agony as UMBC begins to celebrate its monumental March upset in earnest. Guy was not afraid to talk about the loss and wrote a poignant Facebook post weeks later about the experience. |
Virginia is probably going to have another very good regular season, and it is certainly possible it will earn another NCAA tournament No. 1 seed. So the pressure will be there once again. Virginia must rise above it. This is all part of becoming the program fans want in Charlottesville. UVa's style is great for the grind of the regular season, and that has been proven time and time again. But it is time to win in March. Bennett and UVa need to figure out how to do that more regularly. Certainly, the players have already decided to use the UMBC loss as motivation, and they are saying the right things. Kyle Guy wrote an emotional Facebook post after the loss (and he actually had also written one before the game) detailing what he went through in the weeks after helping make history. But he said he now has a "profound hate against losing" he didn't have before. Hopefully, the players learned from the loss and won't take that position for granted again. That was one of the more shocking things about the defeat, that UVa let its guard down. Bennett prides himself on running a humble program. But that night, Virginia came in unprepared (not all the team's fault, because of Hunter's injury), but also a little big-headed.
Who will be the team leaders? Hall and Wilkins have graduated, the former the quiet leader, the latter the vocal one. Virginia shouldn't have many problems filling the leadership void, because Salt will be a senior, and Guy and Ty Jerome are juniors now who have gotten lots of court time. And Hunter is on the more reserved side, but will command respect as possibly Virginia's best player.
How good will Hunter be? He will be a redshirt sophomore, and he was possibly going to be a first-round pick in this year's NBA draft before getting hurt and then returning to Charlottesville. He's already being touted as one of the best players in the country ahead of next season and as a possible 2019 lottery pick. He's very versatile and can play in the post and on the outside, guard multiple
 |
| A broken wrist sidelined De'Andre Hunter at the end of last season, right as he was beginning to get national attention. He's expected to be the team's best player in 2018-19. |
Can Guy and Jerome develop even further? I asked basically the same question in last year's post about the 2017-18 season, and they did both get better overall, though both shot somewhat worse from beyond the arc. Jerome went from 39.7 to 37.9 percent, and Guy, after starting out the year strong, finished at 39.2 percent, down from 49.5. But Jerome continued to look mature beyond his years running the point, and Guy started to get more creative in how he scored with teams keying on his 3-point shooting. He was able to drive the lane more, and Jerome has developed a craftiness inside the paint as well. Both must continue to develop on the offensive end, whether it is picking their spots better and getting more efficient shots or getting teammates involved, and they need to get better on defense, too.
The emergence of Hunter could help both settle into more complementary roles where maybe the target won't be on them as much. With all three playing well and feeding off each other, the offense
 |
| All grown up: Kyle Guy (5) and Ty Jerome aren't young bucks anymore. They'll be taking over in major leadership roles as Devon Hall (0) and Isaiah Wilkins move on. |
Will scoring in the post be better? This has been a problem the past couple of seasons. Virginia went cold shooting jumpers against UMBC, and there was no true post threat to turn to. It's been this way since Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey graduated, and Austin Nichols was kicked off the team after two games the following season. Salt and Wilkins had their moments, but weren't consistent. This is Salt's last season coming up, and I don't expect him to take a huge jump. Hunter is capable of scoring in the post, but he is not a true post player, and he can be used in so many different ways, so he's not going to be limited in the way he gets utilized. Mamadi Diakite is still very promising, and he took a nice jump last season from 3.8 points and 2.6 rebounds to 5.4 points and 3 rebounds per game. This will be his fourth year in the program and third playing. I've harped on it before, but he just needs to harness his athleticism, and then unleash it on foes in a controlled and unrelenting way. He's getting closer, but the light still hasn't fully turned on yet. But we all saw how Hunter took off last season after a slow start, so it's possible for the light to switch fully on in the middle of the season. Jay Huff was disappointing, but maybe he could step up and surprise us. Glimpses from him, however, indicated he likes outside shooting just as much if not more than being in the post, plus his defense needs work. Francesco Badocchi is coming off a redshirt year and has been described as a pogo stick in the past. He looks longer than Wilkins, but is still expected to be raw. Any skills he shows on offense in his first season on the court will be an added bonus. Then there's the addition of two new guys who could help down low ...
Can Braxton Key and Francisco Caffaro help the team? For Key, the question is availability. For Caffaro, it is development. Both players can help some in the post, but Key is more of a forward in the mold of Hunter, while Caffaro is a 7-footer who is a true post player. When Key transferred to Virginia, it was believed he would sit out this upcoming season and then be eligible next year. But it turns out Key is asking the NCAA to grant him eligibility this coming season. The reason such a wish gets granted is usually because a player moves to a school closer to where an ill family member lives (this is how former UVa QB Phillips Sims got eligible right away for the Cavaliers). I'm not sure if that is true for Key, but apparently the "immediate family" rule the NCAA had has been relaxed. Key is a significant player who dropped off some last season, but two years ago as a freshman, he averaged 12 points and 5.7 rebounds. He would bring depth and another offensive weapon to the floor for the Cavaliers. The immediate thought on Caffaro was he would redshirt in order for his body to develop. But it looks like Caffaro could be ahead of schedule and ready to contribute this coming season. If one or both of Key and Caffaro can produce in a meaningful way, watch out.
What will Marco Anthony's role be? Anthony, who will be a true sophomore, didn't get a ton of
 |
| Marco Anthony turned some heads with his performance vs. Louisville at JPJ last season, but it is still too early to know if he can be a significant contributor next season. |
How much will Kihei Clark and Kody Stattmann contribute? These two, along with Caffaro, are the true freshmen who will be on the roster for this upcoming season. I think I actually neglected to write about their commitments in 2017 because it was football season. Stattmann pledged in late
 |
| Kihei Clark |
Stattmann, a wing from Australia, is 6-7 and 178 pounds, which is pretty skinny. For comparison, Hunter is 6-7 but listed at 222. Guy is 6-2, but is 175. I think it is more likely that Stattmann redshirts than Clark, because he won't be needed as much, with Hunter, Anthony, and possibly Key ahead of him on the depth chart. Stattmann is known as a very good 3-point shooter. I don't know much about his rebounding ability and if he could possibly play in the post as he develops. It seems like he could be slotted in a few spots, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get redshirted so that he can develop his game and body, and so that the coaches can watch him closely and figure out how he will fit into the team in coming seasons.
Who is Virginia playing? In April, the ACC announced the conference opponents for each team. The ACC is playing an 18-game schedule again. At home and on the road, Virginia will face Duke,
 |
| Kody Stattmann |
What about nonconference opponents? We don't know all of those matchups, but Virginia is slated to host VCU, Marshall, George Washington, and William & Mary. The Cavaliers will travel to South Carolina and also Maryland for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Virginia will also participate in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas from Nov. 21-23. There's no bracket yet, but the other teams in the event are Butler, Florida, Wisconsin, Dayton, Stanford, Oklahoma, and Middle Tennessee State.
Next year's team has a chance to be very good and possibly one of the best in the nation again. Eclipsing the regular-season success of the 2017-18 team might be asking too much, but we are looking for more success in March anyway. The 2014-15 team went 28-2 in the regular season, but lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The next team in 2015-16 went 24-6 in the regular season but made the Elite Eight, so that is deemed the more successful squad. Hopefully the 2018-19 Cavaliers can follow a similar pattern. We know what we are getting, for the most part, out of Guy, Jerome, Hunter, Salt and perhaps Diakite. What we don't know, and what can take the team from very good to excellent, is what Huff, Anthony, Badocchi, Clark, Stattmann, and Key, if eligible, bring to the table as they develop and in some cases, fans see them for the first time. Despite how last season ended, it is still an exciting time to be a Wahoo.
Great in-depth analysis. I can see why this one is getting so many clicks.
ReplyDeleteBtw, a perusal of your archives indicates that the last month you went without a post was July 2013.
Thank you! And, there ya go, in case anyone was wondering lol.
ReplyDelete