FYI, my final tally in picking college football games this season after calling Clemson's upset of Alabama in the national championship was 121-53 (.695), beating last season's record of 94-47 (.667). I went 6-6 in predicting the bowls.
NFL: 2-2 over wild card weekend
Saturday
Colts (11-6) at Chiefs (12-4), 4:35 p.m. NBC
The Colts are red hot, having won 10 of 11, and have really improved in every facet of the game since the beginning of the season when they started 1-5. They took it right to the Texans last week in cruising to a 21-7 road win. This week, the challenge is second-year QB phenom Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs offense, which led the league in scoring by more than 2 ppg with a 35.3-point average. Plus, Kansas City is always one of the loudest venues and toughest places to win in the league, and the Chiefs went 7-1 there this year, with just a one-point loss to the Chargers on the ledger. That's why it is so amazing that they have not won a home playoff game since January 1994. That's six straight playoff losses at Arrowhead for the hosts. The past two have been brutal. Last season, the Chiefs led the Titans, 21-3, at halftime, and lost, 22-21. Two seasons ago, the Steelers edged the Chiefs, 18-16. Overall, Kansas City is just 1-10 in its past 11 playoff games. This one should be a barnburner. Mahomes led the league with 50 TD passes, and Luck was No. 2 at 41. These teams have somewhat recent playoff history, and it is heartbreaking as well for the Chiefs. At Indianapolis in the wild card round in January 2014, the Chiefs led, 38-10, early in the third quarter, but the Colts came back to win, 45-44, in one of the most incredible playoff games in history. I like the Chiefs in a close game, but wouldn't be surprised if the Colts pull it off.
Chiefs 38, Colts 35
Sunday
Chargers (13-4) at Patriots (11-5), 1:05 p.m. CBS
It feels like I and others have been overlooking New England all season. Is that because we are just so used to its greatness we take it for granted? Or is it because there are legitimately a handful of teams that have been better this season? We are about to find out the answer to that latter question as the Patriots begin their postseason run at home. New England has won 16 of the past 18 AFC East championships -- just an incredible run of consistency when you think about all the other teams that have been up and down in that time frame. But the division is normally below average and indeed, the Patriots' opponent came into the playoffs as a wild card at 12-4, surely one of the best wild card teams in the history of the league. Los Angeles got some revenge last week by beating Baltimore, 23-17, on the road after losing to the Ravens at home during the regular season. Rookie Michael Badgley made 5 of his 6 field goals, and the defense took it from there, limiting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to three points through three quarters before a late flurry made it close. L.A. sacked Jackson seven times. That might not bode well for the Patriots, because Tom Brady does not move like Jackson. But we know, of course, that Brady is a master at getting rid of the ball quickly, and even though he just played 12 games, Julian Edelman was his favorite target with 74 catches for 850 yards and six TDs. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has been banged up and not as productive this season. But Brady has been solid through it all, completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,355 yards, 29 TDs, and 11 picks. New England's defense had its good moments and bad moments, but finished 21st in yards per game allowed but seventh in points allowed, perhaps buoyed by finishing fifth in the league with a +10 turnover margin. There are lots of reasons to pick the Chargers. They are the more complete team. But can they go to the East Coast two weeks in a row and win? Brady is 7-0 all time against Philip Rivers as well. Do the Patriots have more magic, or is the dynasty ending? The last time they lost at home in the divisional round was January 2011 to the Jets. I'll take the Patriots, barely.
Patriots 26, Chargers 23
Eagles (10-7) at Saints (13-3), 4:40 p.m. Fox
Back on Nov. 18, the Saints walloped the Eagles, 48-7, in New Orleans. Now, almost two months later, they meet again at the Superdome. Not much has changed for the Saints, but a lot has for Philadelphia. The Eagles have lost just once since, at Dallas in overtime, and last week got help from Treyvon Hester's fingertips and the field goal post to pull out a crazy victory in Chicago. Nick Foles certainly wasn't great -- 25 of 40 for 266 yards, two touchdowns and two picks -- but he was great when it counted, which is making him the hottest postseason QB right now and one of the best in history. On third and fourth down, he went 8 for 11 for 79 yards and a score. And get this: Over his past five playoff games, Foles is 40 of 52 for 522 yards, six TDs, and zero picks on third and fourth down. Incredible. After Week 1's surprising loss to the Buccaneers, the Saints have lost just once when their starters have played, also at Dallas. For all their domination, though, some games have been close. New Orleans has won four games by three points, another one by six, and two by 10. But it does win games by an average score of 31-22 with an offense that scores the third-most points in the league. Drew Brees didn't hit 4,000 yards passing (3,992), but was incredibly accurate at 74.4 percent, the best mark for a single season in history, breaking his own record from last season by more than 2 percent, and finished with 32 scores to only five interceptions. It should be very easy for this game to be closer than the regular-season meeting, but I still think it will be asking a lot for Philly to go to New Orleans and win this game. The defending champions go down.
Saints 27, Eagles 20
Saturday
Cowboys (11-6) at Rams (13-3), 8:15 p.m. Fox
Dallas' win last week over Seattle followed a familiar script: The defense set the tone and kept the game close until the offense eventually did enough to pull away. It is mostly how the Cowboys have won eight of their past nine games since their 3-5 start. Ezekiel Elliott chewed up 137 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries (5.3 ypc), and Dak Prescott was good, but not great (22 of 33 for 226 yards, one TD, and one improbable pick), but did have one awesome play, when he rushed for a first down on third-and-15 late in the game, seemingly dodging or running through defenders the entire time. Prescott dove toward the goal line but was upended in midair. His topsy-turvy landing placed him on the half-yard line, and then he snuck into the end zone to make the score 23-14 pending the extra point, essentially putting the game away. Dallas had to hold on as Seattle scored and then tried an onside kick, but it settled softly in the arms of Cole Beasley. At the end of the first half, Seattle tried a long field goal and missed, and even worse, Sebastian Janikowski pulled his hamstring on the attempt and could not re-enter the game. That meant that rookie punter Michael Dickson was the kicker for the rest of the game, and it affected the Seahawks' plan. They had to be more aggressive, which worked in their favor in the third quarter, when they were able to make it 14-10, but then it hindered them as they tried to come back late in the game. Instead of attempting a short field goal to just get down seven and then try an onside kick, which wasn't even close to being successful, they had to go all the way down and score a TD first, which took time.
Dallas shut down Seattle's top ranked rushing offense, but it has another strong challenge this week in
Rams star Todd Gurley, who was No. 2 in rushing behind Elliott. Gurley finished with 1,251 yards (4.9 ypc) and 17 scores, and he added 59 catches for 580 yards and four scores. The Rams lost two games in December, but Gurley was out with a knee injury then, and he's good to go now. Third-year QB Jared Goff completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 4,688 yards, 32 TDs, and 12 picks. Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks each had at least 80 catches. L.A. finished second to the Chiefs in points per game, averaging 32.9. The Rams' defense, coordinated by former Dallas coach Wade Phillips, took a step back this season, finishing 19th in yards allowed and 20th in points. It was better against the pass (14th) than the run (23rd), so that plays into the Cowboys' hands. L.A. was good at forcing turnovers, finishing +11 (fourth), so Dallas needs to be careful. It doesn't want to be falling behind by more than a score. That plays into the Rams' hands. Despite a couple of subpar numbers on that side of the ball as a unit, everyone should know about the Rams' superlative defensive tackle, Aaron Donald, who has an incredible 30 tackles for losses and 20.5 sacks, plus four forced fumbles. He is a beast that the Cowboys have to account for. And Dallas struggled in protecting Prescott this season -- all the more reason to give Elliott a ton of carries.
The Eagles having to deal with the Saints in New Orleans probably works in Dallas' favor. The Cowboys already beat the Saints once, and doing it twice with the second time having to be down there would be tough. And Dallas will have many more fans in Los Angeles. The Rams also won't have the revenge factor against the Cowboys like the Saints would. In fact, Dallas is the one that should feel a little vengeful. Last season, Dallas led the Rams at home, 24-13, but Los Angeles won, 35-30.
The formula for Dallas to win seems pretty simple. Control the ball and the clock with Elliott, which in turn should help neutralize Donald and the pass rush. Don't put Prescott in harm's way more than he has to be. On defense, the Cowboys need to limit Gurley as much as possible to put the game in Goff's hands. He's not as mobile as Russell Wilson, and Dallas needs to pressure him up the middle, like it did Drew Brees, to force him to make quicker decisions than he'd like. Goff wasn't good in the playoffs last year, when the Rams were one and done in a 26-13 home loss to the Falcons. He's improved, and he will probably play better than in his playoff debut, but DeMarcus Lawrence, Jaylon Smith, and the rest of the 'D' will look to make things difficult for him. The Seahawks did find some success passing the ball, and probably should have more, so that worries me a bit. I think the Cowboys have about as good a chance as any road team this weekend, but the Rams' extra year of experience with this crew will pay off, as I think coach Sean McVay draws up a couple of plays that will allow his team to not look the Saints looked at Dallas. The Cowboys lose for the first time this season when scoring more than 20 points.
Rams 27, Cowboys 24
NFL: 2-2 over wild card weekend
Saturday
Colts (11-6) at Chiefs (12-4), 4:35 p.m. NBC
The Colts are red hot, having won 10 of 11, and have really improved in every facet of the game since the beginning of the season when they started 1-5. They took it right to the Texans last week in cruising to a 21-7 road win. This week, the challenge is second-year QB phenom Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs offense, which led the league in scoring by more than 2 ppg with a 35.3-point average. Plus, Kansas City is always one of the loudest venues and toughest places to win in the league, and the Chiefs went 7-1 there this year, with just a one-point loss to the Chargers on the ledger. That's why it is so amazing that they have not won a home playoff game since January 1994. That's six straight playoff losses at Arrowhead for the hosts. The past two have been brutal. Last season, the Chiefs led the Titans, 21-3, at halftime, and lost, 22-21. Two seasons ago, the Steelers edged the Chiefs, 18-16. Overall, Kansas City is just 1-10 in its past 11 playoff games. This one should be a barnburner. Mahomes led the league with 50 TD passes, and Luck was No. 2 at 41. These teams have somewhat recent playoff history, and it is heartbreaking as well for the Chiefs. At Indianapolis in the wild card round in January 2014, the Chiefs led, 38-10, early in the third quarter, but the Colts came back to win, 45-44, in one of the most incredible playoff games in history. I like the Chiefs in a close game, but wouldn't be surprised if the Colts pull it off.
Chiefs 38, Colts 35
Sunday
Chargers (13-4) at Patriots (11-5), 1:05 p.m. CBS
It feels like I and others have been overlooking New England all season. Is that because we are just so used to its greatness we take it for granted? Or is it because there are legitimately a handful of teams that have been better this season? We are about to find out the answer to that latter question as the Patriots begin their postseason run at home. New England has won 16 of the past 18 AFC East championships -- just an incredible run of consistency when you think about all the other teams that have been up and down in that time frame. But the division is normally below average and indeed, the Patriots' opponent came into the playoffs as a wild card at 12-4, surely one of the best wild card teams in the history of the league. Los Angeles got some revenge last week by beating Baltimore, 23-17, on the road after losing to the Ravens at home during the regular season. Rookie Michael Badgley made 5 of his 6 field goals, and the defense took it from there, limiting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to three points through three quarters before a late flurry made it close. L.A. sacked Jackson seven times. That might not bode well for the Patriots, because Tom Brady does not move like Jackson. But we know, of course, that Brady is a master at getting rid of the ball quickly, and even though he just played 12 games, Julian Edelman was his favorite target with 74 catches for 850 yards and six TDs. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has been banged up and not as productive this season. But Brady has been solid through it all, completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,355 yards, 29 TDs, and 11 picks. New England's defense had its good moments and bad moments, but finished 21st in yards per game allowed but seventh in points allowed, perhaps buoyed by finishing fifth in the league with a +10 turnover margin. There are lots of reasons to pick the Chargers. They are the more complete team. But can they go to the East Coast two weeks in a row and win? Brady is 7-0 all time against Philip Rivers as well. Do the Patriots have more magic, or is the dynasty ending? The last time they lost at home in the divisional round was January 2011 to the Jets. I'll take the Patriots, barely.
Patriots 26, Chargers 23
Eagles (10-7) at Saints (13-3), 4:40 p.m. Fox
Back on Nov. 18, the Saints walloped the Eagles, 48-7, in New Orleans. Now, almost two months later, they meet again at the Superdome. Not much has changed for the Saints, but a lot has for Philadelphia. The Eagles have lost just once since, at Dallas in overtime, and last week got help from Treyvon Hester's fingertips and the field goal post to pull out a crazy victory in Chicago. Nick Foles certainly wasn't great -- 25 of 40 for 266 yards, two touchdowns and two picks -- but he was great when it counted, which is making him the hottest postseason QB right now and one of the best in history. On third and fourth down, he went 8 for 11 for 79 yards and a score. And get this: Over his past five playoff games, Foles is 40 of 52 for 522 yards, six TDs, and zero picks on third and fourth down. Incredible. After Week 1's surprising loss to the Buccaneers, the Saints have lost just once when their starters have played, also at Dallas. For all their domination, though, some games have been close. New Orleans has won four games by three points, another one by six, and two by 10. But it does win games by an average score of 31-22 with an offense that scores the third-most points in the league. Drew Brees didn't hit 4,000 yards passing (3,992), but was incredibly accurate at 74.4 percent, the best mark for a single season in history, breaking his own record from last season by more than 2 percent, and finished with 32 scores to only five interceptions. It should be very easy for this game to be closer than the regular-season meeting, but I still think it will be asking a lot for Philly to go to New Orleans and win this game. The defending champions go down.
Saints 27, Eagles 20
Saturday
Cowboys (11-6) at Rams (13-3), 8:15 p.m. Fox
Dallas' win last week over Seattle followed a familiar script: The defense set the tone and kept the game close until the offense eventually did enough to pull away. It is mostly how the Cowboys have won eight of their past nine games since their 3-5 start. Ezekiel Elliott chewed up 137 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries (5.3 ypc), and Dak Prescott was good, but not great (22 of 33 for 226 yards, one TD, and one improbable pick), but did have one awesome play, when he rushed for a first down on third-and-15 late in the game, seemingly dodging or running through defenders the entire time. Prescott dove toward the goal line but was upended in midair. His topsy-turvy landing placed him on the half-yard line, and then he snuck into the end zone to make the score 23-14 pending the extra point, essentially putting the game away. Dallas had to hold on as Seattle scored and then tried an onside kick, but it settled softly in the arms of Cole Beasley. At the end of the first half, Seattle tried a long field goal and missed, and even worse, Sebastian Janikowski pulled his hamstring on the attempt and could not re-enter the game. That meant that rookie punter Michael Dickson was the kicker for the rest of the game, and it affected the Seahawks' plan. They had to be more aggressive, which worked in their favor in the third quarter, when they were able to make it 14-10, but then it hindered them as they tried to come back late in the game. Instead of attempting a short field goal to just get down seven and then try an onside kick, which wasn't even close to being successful, they had to go all the way down and score a TD first, which took time.
Dallas shut down Seattle's top ranked rushing offense, but it has another strong challenge this week in
The Eagles having to deal with the Saints in New Orleans probably works in Dallas' favor. The Cowboys already beat the Saints once, and doing it twice with the second time having to be down there would be tough. And Dallas will have many more fans in Los Angeles. The Rams also won't have the revenge factor against the Cowboys like the Saints would. In fact, Dallas is the one that should feel a little vengeful. Last season, Dallas led the Rams at home, 24-13, but Los Angeles won, 35-30.
The formula for Dallas to win seems pretty simple. Control the ball and the clock with Elliott, which in turn should help neutralize Donald and the pass rush. Don't put Prescott in harm's way more than he has to be. On defense, the Cowboys need to limit Gurley as much as possible to put the game in Goff's hands. He's not as mobile as Russell Wilson, and Dallas needs to pressure him up the middle, like it did Drew Brees, to force him to make quicker decisions than he'd like. Goff wasn't good in the playoffs last year, when the Rams were one and done in a 26-13 home loss to the Falcons. He's improved, and he will probably play better than in his playoff debut, but DeMarcus Lawrence, Jaylon Smith, and the rest of the 'D' will look to make things difficult for him. The Seahawks did find some success passing the ball, and probably should have more, so that worries me a bit. I think the Cowboys have about as good a chance as any road team this weekend, but the Rams' extra year of experience with this crew will pay off, as I think coach Sean McVay draws up a couple of plays that will allow his team to not look the Saints looked at Dallas. The Cowboys lose for the first time this season when scoring more than 20 points.
Rams 27, Cowboys 24
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