Offense scores, just not as expected at Duke; UVa set for another road game, this time at Notre Dame
No. 3 Virginia (17-1, 5-1) at Notre Dame (11-8, 1-5), 1 p.m. CBS
I sort of promised a little commentary on the 72-70 loss to Duke, so here it is: That went pretty well, actually, when you look at the stats.
Had I told you before the game that Virginia was going to be 3 of 17 on 3-pointers, 11 of 17 at the line (more than 10 percent below its season average), let Duke shoot better than 50 percent from the field, and send the Blue Devils to the line for 31 free throws, you'd probably be shocked to learn that the Wahoos lost by just two at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
When putting it all in perspective, that's not too bad.
Seventy points with those numbers is pretty solid. That means that Virginia did a good job of finding
other ways to score, despite the subpar outings from beyond the arc and at the stripe. Indeed, the Cavaliers ended up shooting 52.8 percent on field goals, which means they were very good anywhere inside the 3-point line. They had four players in double figures: De'Andre Hunter (18), Kyle Guy (14), Ty Jerome (14), and Braxton Key (11), but it wasn't quite enough to combat Duke's dynamic freshman duo of R.J. Barrett (30) and Zion Williamson (27), who accounted for 79.2 percent of Duke's scoring.
The referees certainly did put Duke on the line a lot. Seemingly every time Williamson drove into the paint, he got a favorable whistle. But that was to be expected. Tony Bennett certainly wasn't completely happy with Virginia's defense. It was the first time the 'Hoos gave up 70 points since the loss to you-know-who.
Yes, Duke missed a lot of its free throws, going 18 of 31, and Virginia can't expect it to miss that many in the rematch, but Bennett is going to make some adjustments on how to guard the Blue Devils as well. Tighten the screws up on defense, get a couple fewer calls for Duke, shoot just a bit better on 3s and free throws, and feed off the JPJ crowd, and UVa can have the recipe to capture a victory when Duke makes the trip to Charlottesville on Feb. 9.
But for now, after coming off a rather easy and lazy-looking win over Wake Forest at home Tuesday,
it is on to Notre Dame for Virginia. Here's more on the Fighting Irish, another ACC team that is struggling:
Scorers in double figures: Junior forward John Mooney (14.4), junior guard TJ Gibbs (13.7), sophomore guard D.J. Harvey (11.2)
Leading rebounders: Mooney (10.8), senior guard Rex Pflueger (4.7), Harvey (4.5), junior forward Juwan Durham (4.3), freshman forward Nate Laszewski (4.2)
Assist leaders: Pflueger (4.3), Gibbs (4.1), freshman guard Prentiss Hubb (3.6)
Notable: Eight players average double-figure minutes. Pflueger, Hubb, Laszewski, and freshman guard Dane goodwin all average each at least 7 ppg. Pflueger averages 1.7 steals, and Gibbs, Hubb, and Mooney average about a steal each. Durham averages 3.2 blocks, which leads the ACC. Mooney averages 1.2.
Best win: Dec. 15 over Purdue, 88-80, in Indianapolis
Worst win: 63-56 over Coppin State at home in their final nonconference game. The Eagles are 3-18, with their three wins coming in MEAC play (they lost all their games before their conference schedule, including 97-40 to Virginia)
Other wins: Illinois-Chicago, Chicago State, Illinois, Duquesne, William & Mary, DePaul, Binghamton, Jacksonville, Boston College
Best loss: At No. 13 North Carolina, 75-69
Worst loss: Radford is 15-7 overall and 7-0 in the Big South, but Notre Dame, an ACC team, shouldn't lose to a Big South team at home, 63-60
Other losses: Oklahoma, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, N.C. State
What Notre Dame does well: The Fighting Irish are strong at the line, shooting 74.3 percent (56th)
and get there a decent number of times, with 382 attempts (tied, 165th). They take pretty good care of the ball, with 14.3 assists per game (tied, 128th), just 9.7 turnovers per game (fifth) and an assist-turnover margin of +1.46 (16th). Defensively, Notre Dame averages 5.8 blocks (fifth), owns a +2.1 turnover margin (tied, 78th), and allows foes to score 68.7 ppg (113th). The Irish give up 41.6 percent field goal shooting (84th) and 33.9 percent 3-point shooting (171st). They also do a good job of not putting teams at the line, with opponents having taken 261 free throws (tied, fourth).
What Notre Dame doesn't do well: Offense has been a struggle at times. The Irish score 74 ppg (tied, 167th) and shoot 41 percent from the field (316th) and 33.1 percent from beyond the arc (238th). Notre Dame's rebounding margin is nothing to write home about, but isn't awful (+.4, 187th).
Notre Dame hasn't shot well from the field or rebounded well, but stays out of foul trouble and shoots well from the line. It could be a quick game since UVa doesn't foul much either, and if Notre Dame can stick around, it could be one of those first-to-60 games with both teams playing pretty good defense. The Cavaliers met the Irish once last year, at home in a competitive affair that UVa won, 62-57. Devon Hall was Virginia's top scorer with 17 points, and he's not around anymore, but do-everything Bonzie Colson had 24 points and 15 rebounds for the Irish, and he's gone, too (and was often a thorn in the Cavaliers' sides). It seems like Notre Dame and coach Mike Brey sorely miss him this season, and why wouldn't they? Colson averaged 19.7 points and 10.7 boards during his senior season. It's worth noting that the Irish have been close in a number of their losses, with six of their eight defeats coming by single digits, and five by five or fewer points.
Notre Dame struggles on 3-point shooting, but its top marksmen Virginia should be aware of are Mooney (42.5 percent), Pflueger (38.9), Gibbs (35.5), Laszewski (35.4), and Goodwin (34.8). So the Irish seem to have several good 3-point shooters, but not many great ones. That tells me they just aren't consistent, but a good 3-point shooting game isn't a far-out possibility. Mooney has only 40 attempts on the season and should probably shoot from back there more. Gibbs (124 attempts) has taken the most.
After consecutive trips to the Elite Eight in 2014-16, Brey's teams have taken a step back each season, going 26-10 in 2016-17 and 21-15 last season (even the second Elite Eight year was a surprise, as the Irish went 24-12 overall). So far, though, this is looking like the roughest year, with Notre Dame off to a 1-5 league start. And after Virginia, the Irish host Duke, so a 1-7 start looks somewhat likely. I think this game could be close if Virginia plays sloppily and Notre Dame catches fire a bit, but I'll say the 'Hoos will pull away down the stretch and finish with a victory that is close to the line for the game, 11.5.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15 points.
I sort of promised a little commentary on the 72-70 loss to Duke, so here it is: That went pretty well, actually, when you look at the stats.
Had I told you before the game that Virginia was going to be 3 of 17 on 3-pointers, 11 of 17 at the line (more than 10 percent below its season average), let Duke shoot better than 50 percent from the field, and send the Blue Devils to the line for 31 free throws, you'd probably be shocked to learn that the Wahoos lost by just two at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
When putting it all in perspective, that's not too bad.
Seventy points with those numbers is pretty solid. That means that Virginia did a good job of finding
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| Zion Williamson proved tough for Virginia to stop. |
The referees certainly did put Duke on the line a lot. Seemingly every time Williamson drove into the paint, he got a favorable whistle. But that was to be expected. Tony Bennett certainly wasn't completely happy with Virginia's defense. It was the first time the 'Hoos gave up 70 points since the loss to you-know-who.
Yes, Duke missed a lot of its free throws, going 18 of 31, and Virginia can't expect it to miss that many in the rematch, but Bennett is going to make some adjustments on how to guard the Blue Devils as well. Tighten the screws up on defense, get a couple fewer calls for Duke, shoot just a bit better on 3s and free throws, and feed off the JPJ crowd, and UVa can have the recipe to capture a victory when Duke makes the trip to Charlottesville on Feb. 9.
But for now, after coming off a rather easy and lazy-looking win over Wake Forest at home Tuesday,
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| Jay Huff tied with Kyle Guy for the team lead in points against Wake Forest with 12. The 'Hoos had five players in double figures. |
Scorers in double figures: Junior forward John Mooney (14.4), junior guard TJ Gibbs (13.7), sophomore guard D.J. Harvey (11.2)
Leading rebounders: Mooney (10.8), senior guard Rex Pflueger (4.7), Harvey (4.5), junior forward Juwan Durham (4.3), freshman forward Nate Laszewski (4.2)
Assist leaders: Pflueger (4.3), Gibbs (4.1), freshman guard Prentiss Hubb (3.6)
Notable: Eight players average double-figure minutes. Pflueger, Hubb, Laszewski, and freshman guard Dane goodwin all average each at least 7 ppg. Pflueger averages 1.7 steals, and Gibbs, Hubb, and Mooney average about a steal each. Durham averages 3.2 blocks, which leads the ACC. Mooney averages 1.2.
Best win: Dec. 15 over Purdue, 88-80, in Indianapolis
Worst win: 63-56 over Coppin State at home in their final nonconference game. The Eagles are 3-18, with their three wins coming in MEAC play (they lost all their games before their conference schedule, including 97-40 to Virginia)
Other wins: Illinois-Chicago, Chicago State, Illinois, Duquesne, William & Mary, DePaul, Binghamton, Jacksonville, Boston College
Best loss: At No. 13 North Carolina, 75-69
Worst loss: Radford is 15-7 overall and 7-0 in the Big South, but Notre Dame, an ACC team, shouldn't lose to a Big South team at home, 63-60
Other losses: Oklahoma, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, N.C. State
What Notre Dame does well: The Fighting Irish are strong at the line, shooting 74.3 percent (56th)
What Notre Dame doesn't do well: Offense has been a struggle at times. The Irish score 74 ppg (tied, 167th) and shoot 41 percent from the field (316th) and 33.1 percent from beyond the arc (238th). Notre Dame's rebounding margin is nothing to write home about, but isn't awful (+.4, 187th).
Notre Dame hasn't shot well from the field or rebounded well, but stays out of foul trouble and shoots well from the line. It could be a quick game since UVa doesn't foul much either, and if Notre Dame can stick around, it could be one of those first-to-60 games with both teams playing pretty good defense. The Cavaliers met the Irish once last year, at home in a competitive affair that UVa won, 62-57. Devon Hall was Virginia's top scorer with 17 points, and he's not around anymore, but do-everything Bonzie Colson had 24 points and 15 rebounds for the Irish, and he's gone, too (and was often a thorn in the Cavaliers' sides). It seems like Notre Dame and coach Mike Brey sorely miss him this season, and why wouldn't they? Colson averaged 19.7 points and 10.7 boards during his senior season. It's worth noting that the Irish have been close in a number of their losses, with six of their eight defeats coming by single digits, and five by five or fewer points.
Notre Dame struggles on 3-point shooting, but its top marksmen Virginia should be aware of are Mooney (42.5 percent), Pflueger (38.9), Gibbs (35.5), Laszewski (35.4), and Goodwin (34.8). So the Irish seem to have several good 3-point shooters, but not many great ones. That tells me they just aren't consistent, but a good 3-point shooting game isn't a far-out possibility. Mooney has only 40 attempts on the season and should probably shoot from back there more. Gibbs (124 attempts) has taken the most.
After consecutive trips to the Elite Eight in 2014-16, Brey's teams have taken a step back each season, going 26-10 in 2016-17 and 21-15 last season (even the second Elite Eight year was a surprise, as the Irish went 24-12 overall). So far, though, this is looking like the roughest year, with Notre Dame off to a 1-5 league start. And after Virginia, the Irish host Duke, so a 1-7 start looks somewhat likely. I think this game could be close if Virginia plays sloppily and Notre Dame catches fire a bit, but I'll say the 'Hoos will pull away down the stretch and finish with a victory that is close to the line for the game, 11.5.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15 points.
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