Last week: 3-4 Season: 52-17
This weekend has a nice slate of games, and there's already been one tight ACC contest, with N.C. State downing Syracuse in Raleigh, 16-10, on Thursday. Oklahoma-Texas, Penn State-Iowa, Alabama-Texas A&M (maybe) and of course Florida-LSU are very intriguing matchups, and Florida State has a chance, I think, to at least make things interesting against Clemson, and it will also be fun to see if Wake Forest can stay perfect with an improving Louisville team coming to town.
Saturday's games
Red River Rivalry
No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. No. 11 Texas (4-1) in Dallas, Noon, Fox
These classic rivals met twice last year, with the Longhorns winning the regular-season meeting 48-45, their first victory in the series since 2015. But the two met again in the Big 12 championship, and the Sooners captured that one, 39-27. This is one of the best current rivalries in the sport, with five of the past six meetings being decided by single digits. Texas may have been looking ahead to this matchup a bit last week as it struggled at West Virginia. Otherwise, it has only lost to LSU in a high-scoring competitive game. Oklahoma, with Alabama transfer QB Jalen Hurts, hasn’t been challenged yet, beating Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Kansas by an average of 34.4 points. I’m taking Oklahoma, but I think this will be closer than the 10.5-point spread.
Oklahoma 42, Texas 35
Georgia Tech (1-4) at Duke (3-2), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
The Blue Devils rallied from a 26-3 deficit against Pittsburgh last week at home and took the lead, but ultimately fell to the Panthers, 33-30. This should be a fairly easy bounceback game, though the Yellow Jackets did show small signs of life last week in losing to North Carolina, 38-22. However, it was 24-7 before Tech made it closer. The Blue Devils have won four of the past five in the series, three by at least 13 points. I expect that to continue.
Duke 38, Georgia Tech 14
No. 1 Alabama (5-0) at No. 24 Texas A&M (3-2), 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Tide have beaten Duke, New Mexico State, South Carolina, Southern Miss, and Ole Miss by an average of 37 points. The Aggies have been solid, challenging Clemson and Auburn in losses, but you can add UNC to the list of teams that challenged Clemson, and the Heels did a better job pushing the Tigers than A&M, so not sure what that says about A&M. The Aggies also had to scrape by Arkansas last week. Alabama has won six in a row in the series, four by at least 19 points. The last Aggies team to knock off ‘Bama was led by Johnny Manziel in 2012.
Alabama 45, Texas A&M 17
Florida State (3-2) at No. 2 Clemson (5-0), 3:30 ABC
It will be interesting to see if the Tigers come back better than ever after a week off following their escape in Chapel Hill with a 21-20 win. The Seminoles seem to be improving, with double-digit victories over Louisville and N.C. State at home since losing at Virginia. They just had a week off, too, but it would be a lot to ask the ‘Noles to go into Death Valley and get the upset. But I do think the spread of 27 points is too high.
Clemson 38, Florida State 17
Michigan State (4-2) at No. 8 Wisconsin (5-0), 3:30 p.m. Big Ten Network
The Badgers have three shutouts this season. That’s absurd, even if they did come against South Florida, Central Michigan, and Kent State. They are led on offense by running back Jonathan Taylor, a Heisman candidate, and quarterback Jack Coan. The Spartans seem to be solid and even beat Northwestern by a bigger margin than Wisconsin did, but I like the Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium, and I’m expecting the game to look similar to when Wisconsin downed Michigan, 35-14, but a bit closer.
Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 17
Texas Tech (3-2) at No. 22 Baylor (5-0), 4 p.m. FS1
The Bears, in their third year under coach Matt Rhule, are undefeated. Two seasons ago, Baylor finished 1-11, including a loss to Liberty when the Flames were still an FCS school, and last year, it improved to 7-6 with a bowl win. The competition hasn’t been too stiff yet: Stephen F. Austin, Texas-San Antonio, and Rice, with a step up in wins over Iowa State and Kansas State. The Red Raiders have losses to Arizona and Texas Tech, but upended No. 21 Oklahoma State last week, 45-35. The Bears are favored by 11.
Baylor 37, Texas Tech 27
Rhode Island (1-4) at Virginia Tech (3-2), 4 p.m. ACC Network
The Hokies got their offense moving last week with new QB Hendon Hooker and took down Miami on the road in a wild one, 42-35, but not before giving up a 28-point lead. This team still has issues that need to be addressed, but for now, what it found last week should be enough to get past the Rams pretty easily. Rhode Island has one close win over Brown and two closes losses to New Hampshire and Stony Brook among its five games.
Virginia Tech 45, Rhode Island 17
No. 10 Penn State (5-0) at No. 17 Iowa (4-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Both teams come into this game with very good defenses, with the Nittany Lions No. 2 and the Hawkeyes No. 3 in the nation in scoring defense. Both have played their share of easy foes. PSU has had Idaho and Buffalo, and Iowa has had Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, and Middle Tennessee. And both have had games against tougher opponents, with the Lions beating Pitt 17-10 and, while Maryland hasn’t been especially tough after its hot start, Penn State did win at the Terrapins, 59-0. Iowa held on over rival Iowa State on the road, and lost at Michigan last week, 10-3. PSU has won the past five in the series dating to 2011 (they don’t face each other every year). The past two meetings have been close, with the scores being 30-24 and 21-19. Penn State’s offense will have enough, I think, to win in the tough night environment at Kinnick Stadium.
Penn State 23, Iowa 17
Louisville (3-2) at No. 19 Wake Forest (5-0), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Cardinals are clearly making strides in coach Scott Satterfield's first season, having already topped last season's overall and ACC win totals. Last week, they squeaked by Boston College, 41-39. They also played Notre Dame tough for a half and had a chance to win at Florida State in the fourth quarter. The Demon Deacons are undefeated with victories over Utah State, Rice, UNC, Elon, and Boston College, though none of those wins is particularly surprising. Two weeks ago, Wake slipped by BC just like Louisville did, 27-24. Wake has won the past two meetings by an average score of 49-33.5. Though Wake is undefeated, it has rarely been dominating, and with Louisville having improved, this should be a fairly close game throughout.
Wake Forest 30, Louisville 24
No. 7 Florida (6-0) at No. 5 LSU (5-0), 8 p.m. ESPN
Of all the nation's teams, LSU is the highest-scoring, which is funny, since just a few years ago, it always seemed as if the Tigers were just a competent offense away from being, well, Alabama. LSU has only been challenged in its win at Texas. The Gators are a bit of a surprise at 6-0, and they had to rally against Miami and Kentucky, but they picked up a nice win last week over Auburn in which they led throughout. Florida has a great defense that has yet to allow more than 21 points, while LSU has yet to score fewer than 42, so something's gotta give.
LSU 34, Florida 23
Friday's game
No. 20 Virginia (4-1) at Miami (2-3), 8 p.m. ESPN
The Cavaliers come off their bye week set to face an inconsistent Miami team in a pivotal road conference contest.
The Hurricanes opened the year with a defensive slugfest that they lost to Florida, 24-20. The Gators are still undefeated, but Miami hasn't been able to carry all the momentum forward from that positive showing. After a week off, Miami suffered a second straight close loss, this one in ACC play to North Carolina, 28-25, a more questionable defeat, though the Heels have since proven to at least be a competitive team and not the 2-9 version from a year ago. Miami finally got a reprieve the next week, blasting Bethune-Cookman, 63-0. The struggles returned the next week in beating Central Michigan, 17-12. The Chippewas are 3-3 but don't have impressive wins, and Miami probably should have won the game by more. And last week, Miami continued its inconsistency by falling behind previously unimpressive
Virginia Tech, 28-0, with true freshman Jarren Willims throwing his first three interceptions of the season. First-year coach Manny Diaz decided to pull Williams and put in N'Kosi Perry, who brought the Hurricanes all the way back and tied the game at 35. But the Hokies had one final drive in them and pulled off the 42-35 upset. Miami was favored by two touchdowns.
Got all that? It's going to be about which Miami team shows up. The one that challenged Florida, or the one that barely beat CMU and fell four TDs behind a Virginia Tech team that struggled to defeat Furman? And of course, Virginia also has shown a couple of its sides, too. Will the Cavaliers more resemble the team that looked like it could win at Notre Dame in the first half? Or will they look more like the team that fell behind Old Dominion 17-0?
Miami announced this week that Perry will start the game, and that Williams is doubtful to be available with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Hokies. Perry played pretty well in the rally last week, completing 28 of 47 passes for 422 yards, four TDs, and one INT. He was the starter last season at Scott Stadium when Virginia knocked off No. 16 Miami, 16-13. UVa's defense perplexed Perry into two picks in the first half, and he was pulled for Malik Rosier, who also threw a pick. Bryce Perkins had a poor night with three interceptions as well, but it didn't matter because Jordan Ellis had a nice night running, with 86 yards and UVa's only TD, the defense was lights out, and kicker Brian Delaney had his best collegiate game, including making a 46-yarder right before halftime.
The key to that sentence is Ellis, who is now in the NFL. It would be fantastic if Virginia could find a rushing attack at Miami and not have to rely on Perkins' running and passing. Bronco Mendenhall indicated improving the running game would be a big focus of the bye week, so we will see what develops. Mendenhall said he expected true freshman tailback Mike Hollins' role to expand. The only extended action Hollins has seen in the backfield so far was in the William & Mary victory, when he led the Wahoos in rushing with 78 yards and a pair of scores on 11 carries, mostly in the second half. Otherwise, Wayne Taulapapa has been UVa's leading rusher each game, but his totals have gone down each week: 66 at Pitt, 53 vs. FSU, 33 vs. ODU, and 31 at Notre Dame.
Statistically, the Hurricanes rank 11th in passing offense (Virginia 52nd) and 96th in rushing offense (Virginia 116th). Miami ranks seventh in rushing defense (Virginia 15th) and 49th in passing defense (Virginia 21st). Virginia is 110th in sacks allowed, Miami 130th, which is last, as the 'Canes give up five sacks per game. Virginia is second in sacks, and Miami is tied for 37th. So, expect the quarterbacks to be under a lot of pressure. That was an issue for UVa at Notre Dame, and the Irish came into that contest with just four sacks. With lacking running games and QBs that get sacked a lot, I'd expect plenty of quick passes for both teams. But Miami does have a good threat in the backfield in DeeJay Dallas, who averages 81.8 yards per game and 7.2 yards per carry. He only gets 11 carries per game. UVa's rushing defense was surprisingly porous at Notre Dame. Miami also possesses three nice receiving threats in tight end Brevin Jordan (23 catches, 369 yards, two TDs), wideout Jeff Thomas (21, 256, two), and wideout K.J. Osborn (19, 225, three), who has been a great transfer addition from Buffalo.
Miami 20, Virginia 17
This weekend has a nice slate of games, and there's already been one tight ACC contest, with N.C. State downing Syracuse in Raleigh, 16-10, on Thursday. Oklahoma-Texas, Penn State-Iowa, Alabama-Texas A&M (maybe) and of course Florida-LSU are very intriguing matchups, and Florida State has a chance, I think, to at least make things interesting against Clemson, and it will also be fun to see if Wake Forest can stay perfect with an improving Louisville team coming to town.
Saturday's games
Red River Rivalry
No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. No. 11 Texas (4-1) in Dallas, Noon, Fox
These classic rivals met twice last year, with the Longhorns winning the regular-season meeting 48-45, their first victory in the series since 2015. But the two met again in the Big 12 championship, and the Sooners captured that one, 39-27. This is one of the best current rivalries in the sport, with five of the past six meetings being decided by single digits. Texas may have been looking ahead to this matchup a bit last week as it struggled at West Virginia. Otherwise, it has only lost to LSU in a high-scoring competitive game. Oklahoma, with Alabama transfer QB Jalen Hurts, hasn’t been challenged yet, beating Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Kansas by an average of 34.4 points. I’m taking Oklahoma, but I think this will be closer than the 10.5-point spread.
Oklahoma 42, Texas 35
Georgia Tech (1-4) at Duke (3-2), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
The Blue Devils rallied from a 26-3 deficit against Pittsburgh last week at home and took the lead, but ultimately fell to the Panthers, 33-30. This should be a fairly easy bounceback game, though the Yellow Jackets did show small signs of life last week in losing to North Carolina, 38-22. However, it was 24-7 before Tech made it closer. The Blue Devils have won four of the past five in the series, three by at least 13 points. I expect that to continue.
Duke 38, Georgia Tech 14
No. 1 Alabama (5-0) at No. 24 Texas A&M (3-2), 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Tide have beaten Duke, New Mexico State, South Carolina, Southern Miss, and Ole Miss by an average of 37 points. The Aggies have been solid, challenging Clemson and Auburn in losses, but you can add UNC to the list of teams that challenged Clemson, and the Heels did a better job pushing the Tigers than A&M, so not sure what that says about A&M. The Aggies also had to scrape by Arkansas last week. Alabama has won six in a row in the series, four by at least 19 points. The last Aggies team to knock off ‘Bama was led by Johnny Manziel in 2012.
Alabama 45, Texas A&M 17
Florida State (3-2) at No. 2 Clemson (5-0), 3:30 ABC
It will be interesting to see if the Tigers come back better than ever after a week off following their escape in Chapel Hill with a 21-20 win. The Seminoles seem to be improving, with double-digit victories over Louisville and N.C. State at home since losing at Virginia. They just had a week off, too, but it would be a lot to ask the ‘Noles to go into Death Valley and get the upset. But I do think the spread of 27 points is too high.
Clemson 38, Florida State 17
Michigan State (4-2) at No. 8 Wisconsin (5-0), 3:30 p.m. Big Ten Network
The Badgers have three shutouts this season. That’s absurd, even if they did come against South Florida, Central Michigan, and Kent State. They are led on offense by running back Jonathan Taylor, a Heisman candidate, and quarterback Jack Coan. The Spartans seem to be solid and even beat Northwestern by a bigger margin than Wisconsin did, but I like the Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium, and I’m expecting the game to look similar to when Wisconsin downed Michigan, 35-14, but a bit closer.
Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 17
Texas Tech (3-2) at No. 22 Baylor (5-0), 4 p.m. FS1
The Bears, in their third year under coach Matt Rhule, are undefeated. Two seasons ago, Baylor finished 1-11, including a loss to Liberty when the Flames were still an FCS school, and last year, it improved to 7-6 with a bowl win. The competition hasn’t been too stiff yet: Stephen F. Austin, Texas-San Antonio, and Rice, with a step up in wins over Iowa State and Kansas State. The Red Raiders have losses to Arizona and Texas Tech, but upended No. 21 Oklahoma State last week, 45-35. The Bears are favored by 11.
Baylor 37, Texas Tech 27
Rhode Island (1-4) at Virginia Tech (3-2), 4 p.m. ACC Network
The Hokies got their offense moving last week with new QB Hendon Hooker and took down Miami on the road in a wild one, 42-35, but not before giving up a 28-point lead. This team still has issues that need to be addressed, but for now, what it found last week should be enough to get past the Rams pretty easily. Rhode Island has one close win over Brown and two closes losses to New Hampshire and Stony Brook among its five games.
Virginia Tech 45, Rhode Island 17
No. 10 Penn State (5-0) at No. 17 Iowa (4-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Both teams come into this game with very good defenses, with the Nittany Lions No. 2 and the Hawkeyes No. 3 in the nation in scoring defense. Both have played their share of easy foes. PSU has had Idaho and Buffalo, and Iowa has had Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, and Middle Tennessee. And both have had games against tougher opponents, with the Lions beating Pitt 17-10 and, while Maryland hasn’t been especially tough after its hot start, Penn State did win at the Terrapins, 59-0. Iowa held on over rival Iowa State on the road, and lost at Michigan last week, 10-3. PSU has won the past five in the series dating to 2011 (they don’t face each other every year). The past two meetings have been close, with the scores being 30-24 and 21-19. Penn State’s offense will have enough, I think, to win in the tough night environment at Kinnick Stadium.
Penn State 23, Iowa 17
Louisville (3-2) at No. 19 Wake Forest (5-0), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Cardinals are clearly making strides in coach Scott Satterfield's first season, having already topped last season's overall and ACC win totals. Last week, they squeaked by Boston College, 41-39. They also played Notre Dame tough for a half and had a chance to win at Florida State in the fourth quarter. The Demon Deacons are undefeated with victories over Utah State, Rice, UNC, Elon, and Boston College, though none of those wins is particularly surprising. Two weeks ago, Wake slipped by BC just like Louisville did, 27-24. Wake has won the past two meetings by an average score of 49-33.5. Though Wake is undefeated, it has rarely been dominating, and with Louisville having improved, this should be a fairly close game throughout.
Wake Forest 30, Louisville 24
No. 7 Florida (6-0) at No. 5 LSU (5-0), 8 p.m. ESPN
Of all the nation's teams, LSU is the highest-scoring, which is funny, since just a few years ago, it always seemed as if the Tigers were just a competent offense away from being, well, Alabama. LSU has only been challenged in its win at Texas. The Gators are a bit of a surprise at 6-0, and they had to rally against Miami and Kentucky, but they picked up a nice win last week over Auburn in which they led throughout. Florida has a great defense that has yet to allow more than 21 points, while LSU has yet to score fewer than 42, so something's gotta give.
LSU 34, Florida 23
Friday's game
No. 20 Virginia (4-1) at Miami (2-3), 8 p.m. ESPN
The Cavaliers come off their bye week set to face an inconsistent Miami team in a pivotal road conference contest.
The Hurricanes opened the year with a defensive slugfest that they lost to Florida, 24-20. The Gators are still undefeated, but Miami hasn't been able to carry all the momentum forward from that positive showing. After a week off, Miami suffered a second straight close loss, this one in ACC play to North Carolina, 28-25, a more questionable defeat, though the Heels have since proven to at least be a competitive team and not the 2-9 version from a year ago. Miami finally got a reprieve the next week, blasting Bethune-Cookman, 63-0. The struggles returned the next week in beating Central Michigan, 17-12. The Chippewas are 3-3 but don't have impressive wins, and Miami probably should have won the game by more. And last week, Miami continued its inconsistency by falling behind previously unimpressive
Got all that? It's going to be about which Miami team shows up. The one that challenged Florida, or the one that barely beat CMU and fell four TDs behind a Virginia Tech team that struggled to defeat Furman? And of course, Virginia also has shown a couple of its sides, too. Will the Cavaliers more resemble the team that looked like it could win at Notre Dame in the first half? Or will they look more like the team that fell behind Old Dominion 17-0?
Miami announced this week that Perry will start the game, and that Williams is doubtful to be available with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Hokies. Perry played pretty well in the rally last week, completing 28 of 47 passes for 422 yards, four TDs, and one INT. He was the starter last season at Scott Stadium when Virginia knocked off No. 16 Miami, 16-13. UVa's defense perplexed Perry into two picks in the first half, and he was pulled for Malik Rosier, who also threw a pick. Bryce Perkins had a poor night with three interceptions as well, but it didn't matter because Jordan Ellis had a nice night running, with 86 yards and UVa's only TD, the defense was lights out, and kicker Brian Delaney had his best collegiate game, including making a 46-yarder right before halftime.
The key to that sentence is Ellis, who is now in the NFL. It would be fantastic if Virginia could find a rushing attack at Miami and not have to rely on Perkins' running and passing. Bronco Mendenhall indicated improving the running game would be a big focus of the bye week, so we will see what develops. Mendenhall said he expected true freshman tailback Mike Hollins' role to expand. The only extended action Hollins has seen in the backfield so far was in the William & Mary victory, when he led the Wahoos in rushing with 78 yards and a pair of scores on 11 carries, mostly in the second half. Otherwise, Wayne Taulapapa has been UVa's leading rusher each game, but his totals have gone down each week: 66 at Pitt, 53 vs. FSU, 33 vs. ODU, and 31 at Notre Dame.
#UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said he anticipates expanding the role of true freshman RB Mike Hollins.— Mike Barber (@RTD_MikeBarber) October 7, 2019
Statistically, the Hurricanes rank 11th in passing offense (Virginia 52nd) and 96th in rushing offense (Virginia 116th). Miami ranks seventh in rushing defense (Virginia 15th) and 49th in passing defense (Virginia 21st). Virginia is 110th in sacks allowed, Miami 130th, which is last, as the 'Canes give up five sacks per game. Virginia is second in sacks, and Miami is tied for 37th. So, expect the quarterbacks to be under a lot of pressure. That was an issue for UVa at Notre Dame, and the Irish came into that contest with just four sacks. With lacking running games and QBs that get sacked a lot, I'd expect plenty of quick passes for both teams. But Miami does have a good threat in the backfield in DeeJay Dallas, who averages 81.8 yards per game and 7.2 yards per carry. He only gets 11 carries per game. UVa's rushing defense was surprisingly porous at Notre Dame. Miami also possesses three nice receiving threats in tight end Brevin Jordan (23 catches, 369 yards, two TDs), wideout Jeff Thomas (21, 256, two), and wideout K.J. Osborn (19, 225, three), who has been a great transfer addition from Buffalo.
This is a tough game to pick. Miami will probably come out hungry, feeling like it must win at 0-2 in the ACC, while Virginia can really put an early vice grip on the rest of the Coastal Division if it can get out to a 3-0 league start. The Hurricanes have some momentum after last week's near comeback vs. Tech. They are better than their 2-3 record, I think, even if one of those wins was by a few points over a bad MAC team. Both teams are fairly inconsistent, but Virginia made big plays when it needed to down the stretch against ODU and FSU and is 4-1 as a result. But we've seen what can happen when UVa isn't playing well, too. As Tony Bennett has been fond of saying, especially in his early years at UVa, the margin for error is slim. Virginia can be beating Notre Dame one half, and be losing to almost anyone in another. I think the defenses will dominate the game, and it'll look a lot like 2018's matchup in Charlottesville. But the game is in Miami, the Hurricanes will be desperate, and despite the week off, I don't think UVa will be able to improve its run game and protection of Perkins enough to make a major difference. The Hurricanes come up with a couple more big plays on offense and/or a turnover or two on defense, and come away with the close victory.Some big advantages for #UVA over Miami:— Danny Neckel (@DNeckel19) October 9, 2019
UVA rushing defense: #15
Miami rushing offense: #96
UVA 3rd down defense: #45
Miami 3rd down offense: #125
UVA penalties per game : #31
Miami penalties per game: #98
UVA sacks per game : #2
Miami sacks allowed per game: #130
Miami 20, Virginia 17
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