Last week: 7-3 Season: 69-21
This week's slate is solid, but not "OMG" quality. Wisconsin at Ohio State lost a lot of luster with the Badgers falling flat last week, LSU shouldn't have an issue with Auburn at home, and Notre Dame at Michigan is one of those games where it FEELS big, but you know deep down neither team is in the top tier. In the ACC, Duke at North Carolina will further shape the Coastal Division, Miami is desperate at Pitt, and Syracuse at Florida State could be quite important for Seminoles coach Willie Taggart.
No. 13 Wisconsin (5-1) at No. 3 Ohio State (7-0), Noon, Fox
The Badgers and Buckeyes are supposed to be playing in a top-five matchup in Columbus. But Wisconsin might have been caught looking ahead, because it was stunned by Illinois last week, 24-23. The Illini are still just 3-4. It was a bad, bad loss. If the Badgers thought that was bad, they aren't going to like what the Buckeyes are probably going to do to them. OSU has been crushing everyone, though this will be its toughest game so far.
Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 21
Miami (3-4) at Pittsburgh (5-2), Noon, ESPN
A week after topping Virginia, Miami went out and was beaten by Georgia Tech, which I had proclaimed to be the ACC's worst team. The Yellow Jackets have been improving, but still, that is a bad loss for the Hurricanes. Things don't get easier this weekend with a trip to see the Panthers, who are hot and have won five of six since opening the season with a loss to UVa. However, I do expect a close game: Pitt's past four games, all wins, have come by an average of 3.5 points, and every game Miami has played against an FBS team has been decided by single digits.
Pittsburgh 26, Miami 20
No. 9 Auburn (6-1) at No. 2 LSU (7-0), 3:30 p.m. CBS
Auburn has been a bit better than expected, and the defense is really good, having not allowed more than 24 points (its only loss at Florida, 24-13). But LSU's offense is on a different level this year, and it topped the same Florida team in the bayou by 14 points just two weeks ago. This game feels like it'll flow similarly.
LSU 35, Auburn 21
No. 6 Penn State (7-0) at Michigan State (4-3), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Nittany Lions have come up with two close, solid wins over Iowa and Michigan the past two weeks, the former on the road and the latter at home. The Spartans had a week off, one it looks like they needed after a 34-10 loss to Ohio State and then a 38-0 loss to Wisconsin. PSU's defense won't be any easier for MSU to navigate.
Penn State 24, Michigan State 13
Syracuse (3-4) at Florida State (3-4), 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
A few weeks ago, I said it looked like Willie Taggart and the Seminoles were improving. Now, two losses later, one to Clemson (no surprise) and a gut-wrenching 22-20 setback against Wake Forest has more calls coming for Taggart's firing. The athletics director says that is nonsense, but this game against the Orange feels big, both for Taggart and for FSU's hopes of trying to get to a bowl this season. If FSU can get to 4-4, it would then need to finish 2-2 to be bowl eligible. The Seminoles' last four games: Miami, Boston College, Alabama State, Florida. One certain win and one pretty certain loss. The other two, the first two, are the tossups that will probably factor big time into whether Taggart makes it to 2020 in Tallahassee. But first thing's first. FSU must top struggling Syracuse at home. Florida State has been better, with close defeats to Virginia and Boise State in addition to this past weekend. Syracuse only lost by seven to Pitt and six to N.C. State, but FSU beat N.C. State comfortably.
Florida State 35, Syracuse 28
Battle for the Victory Bell
Duke (4-3) at North Carolina (3-4), 4 p.m. ACC Network Extra
Duke (4-3) at North Carolina (3-4), 4 p.m. ACC Network Extra
The Tar Heels only play close games in Mack Brown's first season back in Chapel Hill, and last week was no exception in a six-overtime loss at Virginia Tech in which the Tar Heels had many chances to win, including a 35-yard missed field goal in the extra session. The Blue Devils have won the past three in the series, all by 10 points or fewer, and I see a similar result in this meeting. Ten of the past 14 games in the series have been decided by 10 or fewer points.
Duke 31, North Carolina 28
Boston College (4-3) at No. 4 Clemson (7-0), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Clemson 48, Boston College 13
No. 8 Notre Dame (5-1) at No. 19 Michigan (5-2), 7:30 p.m. ABC
The Fighting Irish had to fight off USC last week at home, but they took Georgia to the brink in Athens earlier this season. But that almost-win doesn't look as good now that the Bulldogs dropped a home game to South Carolina. The Wolverines have struggled in several contests and come out on the wrong end of big games vs. Penn State and Wisconsin, but did beat similarly defensive-minded Iowa in Ann Arbor. The line is listed as "even" on ESPN.com, so this is a close call and is probably going to be a pretty low-scoring game. My gut is telling me take the Irish.
Notre Dame 24, Michigan 20
Virginia (5-2) at Louisville (4-3), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
As I've discussed multiple times in my prediction posts, first-year Louisville coach Scott Satterfield, who came over from Appalachian State, has done a quicker-than-expected job turning the Cardinals into a team that might make a bowl. But they aren't without their flaws. Louisville has been up and down, as is to be expected with a team coming off a 2-10 campaign. It hung with Notre Dame for a half in the season opener before bowing out, 35-17. Easy wins over directional Kentucky colleges followed, and then the Cardinals got into ACC play with a road date at Florida State. They fell behind 21-0 but then scored 24 straight points to take a lead in the fourth quarter before ultimately falling, 35-24. At home, Louisville squeaked out a victory in a shootout against Boston College, 41-39. Then at Wake Forest the next week, the Cards and Deacons redefined "shootout" with Louisville persevering, 62-59, handing Wake its first defeat. Last week back at home, Clemson unsurprisingly crushed the hosts 45-10, but it was just 17-3 well into the third quarter.
Louisville ranks 65th pass offense (UVa 62nd) and 24th in rush offense (UVa 120th), and it comes in 107th in pass defense (UVa 12th) and 98th in rush defense (UVa 14th).
Louisville has used three quarterbacks extensively this season: sophomore Macale Cunningham (who said recently he wants to go by his given first name instead of his middle name, Malik, as he did last season), who finished last season as the starter, junior Jawon Pass, who started the early part of last season and the first two games this season, and freshman Evan Conley. But Pass is out with an injury,
Javian Hawkins has been a really solid freshman running back so far, carrying the rock 137 times for 751 yards (5.5 ypc) and four scores. Hassan Hall has 74 carries for 307 yards (4.1 ypc) and three scores. Tutu Atwell leads the receiving corps with 35 catches for 546 yards and six TDs. Dez Fitzpatrick has added 24 receptions totaling 471 yards and five TDs.
Despite the leap in performance by Louisville, Virginia is the better team. Here's the problem: Look at the weather forecast for the game. It is icky. Perhaps I'm missing a game in my memory bank, but it seems as if UVa plays horribly in bad weather under Bronco Mendenhall: the freezing cold against Navy in the 2017 Military Bowl, and Indiana on the road and Pitt at home in 2018. This season's team doesn't seem any more prepared to play better in bad weather. The offense can't run the ball effectively but is going to probably have to try to lean on the rushing attack a bit more if the field is really sloppy. I remember really wanting offensive coordinator Robert Anae to run the ball more against Indiana last year, and we didn't. Unfortunately, I feel like this contest is set up to give some headaches to fans over the offensive play calling. Bryce Perkins has been under a lot of pressure and has ball security issues at times, and the ball could be wet, which will also make it harder on receivers to do their jobs.
I think UVa is the better team, and I'd pick the Wahoos at home and/or in better, sunny weather. But the forecast is bleak, and I think that just doesn't bode well for the Cavaliers. Louisville has a good run game, and its defensive deficiencies will be masked somewhat with Virginia likely to struggle a bit on the offensive side of the ball. I think it equals a frustrating loss for the Cavaliers.
Louisville 23, Virginia 20
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