Battle for the Commonwealth Cup
No. 24 Virginia Tech (8-3) at Virginia (8-3), Noon, ABC
The date was Sept. 27, 2019.
The score was Duke 45, Virginia Tech 10, in Blacksburg on a Friday night. The Blue Devils had just unloaded a can of you-know-what on the Hokies. The following day, 4-0 and No. 18 Virginia was set to take on Notre Dame in South Bend. My friend JP and I texted each other something along the lines of, "If we don't beat Tech this year, we never will." The Cavaliers took a 17-14 lead into halftime over the Fighting Irish, and it seemed more probable than ever that this would be the year the Wahoos finally snapped "The Streak," Virginia Tech's one-and-a-half decades of dominance over Virginia. The Cavaliers went on to lose to Notre Dame, 34-20, but that first half solidified the argument that Virginia was much better than Tech this season. That weekend, it looked apparent UVa would be good enough to compete for the Coastal championship,
while Tech, at 2-2, looked like it would be battling just to get to a bowl game, which would actually require seven victories this season rather than six, due to the rule that only one FCS win can count toward bowl eligibility (Tech beat Furman and Rhode Island).
Fast forward to Nov. 29. The Hokies are safely bowl eligible with eight wins, are coming off of two straight shutout victories, and are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Cavaliers for the 16th straight time on Black Friday at Scott Stadium and claim the Coastal title. And it's not like the 'Hoos have fallen off of a cliff, causing optimism to swell around the Hokies. Far from it. The defense is definitely not what it was at the beginning of the season before injuries ravaged the secondary, but Virginia has played a mostly tough brand of football all season and will win the Coastal as well if it can stop the hot Hokies. UVa hasn't beaten Tech since a 35-21 victory in Charlottesville in 2003 when Heath Miller, Matt Schaub, and Alvin Pearman starred on offense, a string of 15 games. I was in 10th grade, and I'm almost 32 now. Will The Streak end this season?
What's the difference for the Hokies since September? The offense has picked up under new QB Hendon Hooker, who was inserted against Duke after Ryan Willis continued to be ineffective. Immediately in the next game against Miami, Hooker completed just 10 of 20 passes, but he had three TDs. He also brings a running ability to the position Willis did not. Against Miami, Hooker rushed
for 76 yards and a score, and overall, Hooker has 262 yards and four TDs on the ground. Hooker has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,134 yards, 10 touchdowns, and most importantly for Tech, he hasn’t thrown an interception in six starts. Willis, meanwhile, threw five in four starts. Hooker got hurt at the end of the North Carolina game, and Willis came into the contest in overtime and threw one TD to help the Hokies outlast the Heels 43-41 in six overtimes. Hooker did not play at Notre Dame as he recovered, with Quincy Patterson filling in. He did not play well, but the Hokies almost pulled off the upset anyway because of Notre Dame's sloppiness. In Hooker's six starts, the Hokies have averaged 38 points. Against weaker competition in Willis' four starts, the team averaged 23.3 points.
The running game has also improved. Some of the credit for the rushing attack's resurrection has gone to the hiring of Jerry Kill -- the former Minnesota, Northern Illinois, and Southern Illinois coach -- by Hokies coach Justin Fuente in mid-September. At the time, the Hokies were really struggling, and many people thought Tech was grasping at straws with the hiring of Kill as a special assistant to Fuente, trying to put lipstick on a pig. However, it appears he has helped the Hokies make tangible progress. Deshawn McClease leads the team with 631 yards (4.2 ypc) and five scores. Keshawn King is next with 304 yards (4.4 ypc) and a pair of TDs.
Tre Turner (26 receptions, three TDs), Damon Hazelton (23, seven), and Tayvion Robinson (26, one) lead the Hokies' receiving corps, and tight ends James Mitchell (18, two) and Dalton Keene (19, four) have been nice complementary pieces.
Tech ranks 89th in passing offense (UVa is 43rd) and 53rd in rushing offense (UVa 118th).
Not to be outdone, defensive coordinator Bud Foster has done a nice job of turning around the defense. It ranks 70th against the pass (UVa 39th), 24th against the run (UVa 25th), 12th in sacks (UVa eighth), and 80th in turnover margin (UVa 85th). Those numbers are nothing that jump out -- especially compared to Virginia's spot in those rankings -- but since the UNC game, Virginia Tech has given up an average of just 9.3 points to Notre Dame (21-20 loss), Wake Forest (36-17 win), Georgia Tech (45-0 win), and Pittsburgh (28-0 win). In the seven games prior? Foster's unit gave up 29.6 ppg.
I think this game comes down to Virginia's defense. Early in the season, UVa was capable of winning a game by scoring just 20 points because the defense was playing so well. But lately, it just hasn't been the same as Louisville (28), UNC (31), Georgia Tech (28), and Liberty (27) all scored at least 27
points. If Bronco Mendenhall and co-defensive coordinators Nick Howell and Kelly Poppinga can dig down deep and extract a defensive performance that looks like it came from September out of their group, I'd feel much better about the Wahoos' chances. That's because while the offense has improved, I'm not convinced it'll be able to score a lot of points against Tech.
Virginia has only scored more than 21 points once since 2003 against Tech's defense, last season when UVa lost in Blacksburg in overtime, 34-31. It feels like 31 will be needed again. But with Foster's unit beginning to click, I don't know if I trust the offense to be able to put up that many points again. The Cavaliers' offense has been better lately, but I think Tech's defense will be a different beast. The Hokies will be champing at the bit to send the retiring Foster out against their bitter rivals with not only a win, but a dominant showing.
I know I just said the defense stepping up could be the key, but failing that, Bryce Perkins will need to be special. That's all there is to it. Perkins was awesome against UNC and FSU this season. UVa needs that Perkins to show up. Virginia is just never able to make the big plays in the big moments against Tech. But on Friday, Perkins needs to do that to overcome UVa's deficiencies on offense and defense. Perkins needs to possibly have a heroic performance if Virginia is going overcome all of the baggage that comes with The Streak and win.
Like I wrote about Pitt-Virginia Tech last week, the Cavaliers have been more consistent over the entire season than the Hokies. BUT lately, Tech has been playing better; it's that simple. Given that, plus the fact that the Hokies have the psychological edge in the series and things just seem to go wrong for Virginia when these two meet, I'm predicting the Hokies to win again.
Virginia Tech 34, Virginia 20
No. 24 Virginia Tech (8-3) at Virginia (8-3), Noon, ABC
The date was Sept. 27, 2019.
The score was Duke 45, Virginia Tech 10, in Blacksburg on a Friday night. The Blue Devils had just unloaded a can of you-know-what on the Hokies. The following day, 4-0 and No. 18 Virginia was set to take on Notre Dame in South Bend. My friend JP and I texted each other something along the lines of, "If we don't beat Tech this year, we never will." The Cavaliers took a 17-14 lead into halftime over the Fighting Irish, and it seemed more probable than ever that this would be the year the Wahoos finally snapped "The Streak," Virginia Tech's one-and-a-half decades of dominance over Virginia. The Cavaliers went on to lose to Notre Dame, 34-20, but that first half solidified the argument that Virginia was much better than Tech this season. That weekend, it looked apparent UVa would be good enough to compete for the Coastal championship,
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| The best chance the Wahoos may have is if Bryce Perkins can will them to a win. |
Fast forward to Nov. 29. The Hokies are safely bowl eligible with eight wins, are coming off of two straight shutout victories, and are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Cavaliers for the 16th straight time on Black Friday at Scott Stadium and claim the Coastal title. And it's not like the 'Hoos have fallen off of a cliff, causing optimism to swell around the Hokies. Far from it. The defense is definitely not what it was at the beginning of the season before injuries ravaged the secondary, but Virginia has played a mostly tough brand of football all season and will win the Coastal as well if it can stop the hot Hokies. UVa hasn't beaten Tech since a 35-21 victory in Charlottesville in 2003 when Heath Miller, Matt Schaub, and Alvin Pearman starred on offense, a string of 15 games. I was in 10th grade, and I'm almost 32 now. Will The Streak end this season?
What's the difference for the Hokies since September? The offense has picked up under new QB Hendon Hooker, who was inserted against Duke after Ryan Willis continued to be ineffective. Immediately in the next game against Miami, Hooker completed just 10 of 20 passes, but he had three TDs. He also brings a running ability to the position Willis did not. Against Miami, Hooker rushed
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| QB Hendon Hooker has been a big part of the Hokies' turnaround on offense. |
The running game has also improved. Some of the credit for the rushing attack's resurrection has gone to the hiring of Jerry Kill -- the former Minnesota, Northern Illinois, and Southern Illinois coach -- by Hokies coach Justin Fuente in mid-September. At the time, the Hokies were really struggling, and many people thought Tech was grasping at straws with the hiring of Kill as a special assistant to Fuente, trying to put lipstick on a pig. However, it appears he has helped the Hokies make tangible progress. Deshawn McClease leads the team with 631 yards (4.2 ypc) and five scores. Keshawn King is next with 304 yards (4.4 ypc) and a pair of TDs.
Tre Turner (26 receptions, three TDs), Damon Hazelton (23, seven), and Tayvion Robinson (26, one) lead the Hokies' receiving corps, and tight ends James Mitchell (18, two) and Dalton Keene (19, four) have been nice complementary pieces.
Tech ranks 89th in passing offense (UVa is 43rd) and 53rd in rushing offense (UVa 118th).
Not to be outdone, defensive coordinator Bud Foster has done a nice job of turning around the defense. It ranks 70th against the pass (UVa 39th), 24th against the run (UVa 25th), 12th in sacks (UVa eighth), and 80th in turnover margin (UVa 85th). Those numbers are nothing that jump out -- especially compared to Virginia's spot in those rankings -- but since the UNC game, Virginia Tech has given up an average of just 9.3 points to Notre Dame (21-20 loss), Wake Forest (36-17 win), Georgia Tech (45-0 win), and Pittsburgh (28-0 win). In the seven games prior? Foster's unit gave up 29.6 ppg.
I think this game comes down to Virginia's defense. Early in the season, UVa was capable of winning a game by scoring just 20 points because the defense was playing so well. But lately, it just hasn't been the same as Louisville (28), UNC (31), Georgia Tech (28), and Liberty (27) all scored at least 27
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| Linebacker Jordan Mack and the Wahoos defense need to step up and come up with a special performance. |
Virginia has only scored more than 21 points once since 2003 against Tech's defense, last season when UVa lost in Blacksburg in overtime, 34-31. It feels like 31 will be needed again. But with Foster's unit beginning to click, I don't know if I trust the offense to be able to put up that many points again. The Cavaliers' offense has been better lately, but I think Tech's defense will be a different beast. The Hokies will be champing at the bit to send the retiring Foster out against their bitter rivals with not only a win, but a dominant showing.
I know I just said the defense stepping up could be the key, but failing that, Bryce Perkins will need to be special. That's all there is to it. Perkins was awesome against UNC and FSU this season. UVa needs that Perkins to show up. Virginia is just never able to make the big plays in the big moments against Tech. But on Friday, Perkins needs to do that to overcome UVa's deficiencies on offense and defense. Perkins needs to possibly have a heroic performance if Virginia is going overcome all of the baggage that comes with The Streak and win.
Like I wrote about Pitt-Virginia Tech last week, the Cavaliers have been more consistent over the entire season than the Hokies. BUT lately, Tech has been playing better; it's that simple. Given that, plus the fact that the Hokies have the psychological edge in the series and things just seem to go wrong for Virginia when these two meet, I'm predicting the Hokies to win again.
Virginia Tech 34, Virginia 20
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