Last week: 7-2 Season: 82-26
For the first time in history, a college football weekend features not one but two matchups of 8-0 teams. One of them is no surprise. The other is definitely out of left field. Those two marquee games are buttressed by a solid contest of ranked teams as Iowa travels to Wisconsin. A number of other games I'm not picking are intriguing, too, such as Kansas State at Texas, Missouri at Georgia, and Iowa State at Oklahoma. In ACC action, Louisville at Miami and Wake Forest at Virginia Tech are the important games.
No. 4 Penn State (8-0) at No. 17 Minnesota (8-0), Noon, ABC
This is the surprising matchup of undefeated squads. The Nittany Lions being undefeated, not so shocking, but the Golden Gophers being perfect is stranger. Their coach is P.J. Fleck, who is now in his third season. He came over from Western Michigan after getting the Broncos to the Cotton Bowl. In 2017, Minnesota went 5-7 and last year, it went 7-6, so the program is showing steady improvement. The Gophers have had a weak schedule so far and had to squeak by FCS team South Dakota State in Week 1, and also only managed to beat Fresno State, Georgia Southern, and Purdue by single digits. Since, though, they've crushed Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland. Not tough teams, but at least they wiped the field with them. PSU's slate has been a bit tougher with seven-point wins at home over Pitt and Michigan and road victories over Iowa (five) and Michigan State (21). Minnesota is a great story, but I don't think it is quite ready to win this caliber of game.
Penn State 24, Minnesota 17
Florida State (4-5) at Boston College (5-4), Noon, ACC Network
FSU was beaten badly by Miami last week, 27-10. It was so bad that the school fired second-year coach Willie Taggart. Odell Haggins, the school's longtime defensive line coach who was also the interim coach at the end of 2017 when Jimbo Fisher took off for Texas A&M, will fill in again. FSU has to win this game to have a chance to get to a bowl, because it still has to face Florida, a likely loss. Next week, the 'Noles get Alabama State, so a victory over the Eagles this week would virtually guarantee a sixth win. But, I don't think FSU will be able to beat BC, which has played pretty well following its surprising blowout loss to Kansas earlier this season. And the Jayhawks have since beaten Texas Tech and given Texas all it could handle. Les Miles has done a good job there in his first season. If the Eagles don't win this one, they may not get to the postseason with their final two games coming on the road at Notre Dame and Pitt.
Boston College 35, Florida State 33
No. 2 LSU (8-0) at No. 3 Alabama (8-0), 3:30 p.m. CBS
Here's the weekend's premier matchup, and it's a good one for sure. The Tide would normally have the edge because of the Tigers' inability to score. Alabama has won the past eight meetings, with LSU never scoring more than 17 points in that time frame, and the Tide have pitched three shutouts. But the Tigers have a formidable offense this season, led by Heisman-contending QB Joe Burrow. For Alabama, QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a high-ankle sprain against Tennessee on Oct. 19 and has been working hard to come back for this game. Signs point to him playing, of course, because he's a tough kid, and this is a huge game. If he can't go, Mac Jones is Alabama's backup QB. He played well two weeks ago against Arkansas in a blowout, but he's no Tua. Still, as good as LSU's offense has been, Alabama's may be better, with the usual studs at running back (Najee Harris) and wideout (Jerry Jeudy). Both of these teams were off last week. In LSU's last time out, the Tigers were challenged at home by Auburn, coming away with a 23-20 win. I think Tagovailoa toughs it out and plays, and Alabama wins a thriller.
Alabama 30, LSU 27
No. 19 Wake Forest (7-1) at Virginia Tech (5-3), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Demon Deacons are trying to keep their terrific season going. Assuming they lose to Clemson and the Tigers get to the College Football Playoff, the Deacons still have aspirations of getting to the Orange Bowl as the next highest ranked ACC team. QB Jamie Newman and WR Sage Surratt have been breakout stars for Wake. The Hokies are trying to keep pace in the Coastal, hoping to get to Scott Stadium with a chance to win the division. They still have two other ACC games left after this before facing Virginia: at Georgia Tech and home vs. Pitt. Another thing to keep in mind for the Hokies is their bowl streak. They need seven wins to go bowling for a 27th consecutive season due to playing two FCS teams -- six victories won't cut it this year for them. Tech got lots of lucky breaks last week from a bumbling Notre Dame team that turned it over three times in the red zone and gave up a 98-yard fumble return for a TD, and nearly knocked off the Irish in South Bend, but Notre Dame won in the closing seconds. If Tech doesn't win this game, it could be a struggle to find a seventh win, but if it takes down Wake, I think the Hokies will make the postseason, with the bonus of contending for the Coastal if things fall right. Tech's defense is improving, but I don't think the offense will be consistent enough to keep up with Wake's attack. This meeting should be more entertaining than the last time these schools met: the infamous 6-3 double-overtime win in Winston-Salem that was tied 0-0 at the end of regulation.
Wake Forest 31, Virginia Tech 28
Louisville (5-3) at Miami (5-4), 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
Louisville 27, Miami 24
No. 18 Iowa (6-2) at No. 13 Wisconsin (6-2), 4 p.m. Fox
Wisconsin 27, Iowa 17
No. 5 Clemson (9-0) at N.C. State (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Clemson 52, N.C. State 13
No. 15 Notre Dame (6-2) at Duke (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Notre Dame 34, Duke 20
Georgia Tech (2-6) at Virginia (6-3), Noon, NBC Sports Washington/ACC Network Extra
It's been a rough first season in Atlanta for Geoff Collins, the former Temple coach. Everyone knew it would be. The Yellow Jackets for more than a decade were led by Paul Johnson, a purveyor of the triple-option offense. He retired at the end of last season, but a lot of his players are still on the team trying to get used to pro-style concepts.
Not surprisingly, Tech ranks 124th in passing offense nationally. The rushing offense is a bit better, sitting at 75th. But it equals an output of 17.1 points per game, which is 122nd. The Jackets' defense is better, with the pass defense a solid 20th, but run defense is lacking at just 121st, and it gives up 29.1 ppg (81st). But as we know, Virginia loves to pass, not run. Even when it seems like Virginia should run, it passes (and I am referring to running back runs, not runs with Bryce Perkins). Does that mean Cavaliers offensive coordinator Robert Anae will try to call plays that go right at the strength of the Jackets? Hopefully with Perkins looking like his vintage self last week, and backup Brennan Armstrong being healthy, Anae will call Perkins on some runs like last week. Bronco Mendenhall has
said when Armstrong was hurt, the offense was more careful in calling for Perkins to run since they knew the backup situation was shaky. In addition to Perkins, Anae should give the Jackets a little bigger dose of running back Wayne Tualapapa than other defenses have gotten. The sophomore has only received 9.7 carries per game, but maybe this is a time where UVa can lean on him a bit more since Tech is weak against the run. As I've stated in this space, I think Tualapapa has done pretty well in his limited chances. He's managed 4.2 yards per carry, not a terrible number by any means. That's lower than Jordan Ellis in 2018 (4.8) but higher than Ellis' 2017 average (3.9). Ellis got a bigger workload, carrying the ball 215 times in each of his final two seasons (16.5 per game).
The Jackets have been going with two quarterbacks lately, Lucas Johnson and James Graham, who started last week at Pitt, but he struggled in the first half, so Johnson started the second half. Johnson took a big hit, though, and had to come out with an upper-body injury, and his status for this game is uncertain. Graham has completed 43.4 percent of his passes for 723 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. Meanwhile, Johnson, who was injured earlier this season as well, has completed 56.8 percent of his passes for one score and one pick. Graham has run for 122 yards and one TD. Tech's rushing attack is led by Jordan Mason, who has 622 yards, a healthy 5.7 ypc, and six touchdowns. There are three receivers with more than 10 catches: Ahmarean Brown (16 receptions, four TDs), Adonicas Sanders (12, zero), and Malachi Carter (11, one). The lack of a passing game has to be a welcome sight for Virginia's banged up secondary, but the rush defense needs to be ready, too, after getting gashed by North Carolina last week for 186 yards and 539 yards overall. Virginia went into Chapel Hill having not given up 400 yards in a game this season.
Yellow Jackets cornerback Kaleb Oliver has two picks. Tech is -2 in turnover margin and has collected 13 sacks, with linebacker Charlie Thomas leading the way with a pair.
Georgia Tech has two wins: 14-10 over South Florida at home and 28-21 at Miami. The victory over the Hurricanes came a week after Miami topped Virginia, so Tech is capable of winning in Charlottesville and is probably playing a bit better overall than expected, especially after losing to The Citadel of the FCS in September. The six losses, in order, have been: Clemson (52-14), The Citadel (27-24), Temple (24-2), North Carolina (38-22), Duke (41-23), and Pitt (20-10). The Jackets had their bye week after defeating Miami and then lost to Pitt last week.
Obviously the importance of this game for Virginia can't be overstated. Win, and the Cavaliers guarantee themselves a chance to claim the division title by beating Virginia Tech. If they get upset, they then leave their fate in the hands of the football gods. Snapping the losing streak against the Hokies would also then carry the extra meaning of having a must-win situation for the division (and even then, if UVa was to lose to the Jackets but beat the Hokies, it might not win the Coastal). Losing to the Jackets could also mean the Hokies go into the game in Charlottesville with a chance to win the division. But if the 'Hoos win this weekend, that would be more unlikely since I don't think Virginia Tech will go 3-0 against Wake, Georgia Tech, and Pitt.
Georgia Tech isn't a very good team, but it isn't terrible and is capable of upsetting UVa, especially given the Wahoos' inability to run or unwillingness to do so even if game flow calls for it. But back at home, even if they get off to a slow start, I expect the 'Hoos to play a solid enough game to ease past the Jackets.
Virginia 27, Georgia Tech 17
For the first time in history, a college football weekend features not one but two matchups of 8-0 teams. One of them is no surprise. The other is definitely out of left field. Those two marquee games are buttressed by a solid contest of ranked teams as Iowa travels to Wisconsin. A number of other games I'm not picking are intriguing, too, such as Kansas State at Texas, Missouri at Georgia, and Iowa State at Oklahoma. In ACC action, Louisville at Miami and Wake Forest at Virginia Tech are the important games.
No. 4 Penn State (8-0) at No. 17 Minnesota (8-0), Noon, ABC
This is the surprising matchup of undefeated squads. The Nittany Lions being undefeated, not so shocking, but the Golden Gophers being perfect is stranger. Their coach is P.J. Fleck, who is now in his third season. He came over from Western Michigan after getting the Broncos to the Cotton Bowl. In 2017, Minnesota went 5-7 and last year, it went 7-6, so the program is showing steady improvement. The Gophers have had a weak schedule so far and had to squeak by FCS team South Dakota State in Week 1, and also only managed to beat Fresno State, Georgia Southern, and Purdue by single digits. Since, though, they've crushed Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland. Not tough teams, but at least they wiped the field with them. PSU's slate has been a bit tougher with seven-point wins at home over Pitt and Michigan and road victories over Iowa (five) and Michigan State (21). Minnesota is a great story, but I don't think it is quite ready to win this caliber of game.
Penn State 24, Minnesota 17
Florida State (4-5) at Boston College (5-4), Noon, ACC Network
FSU was beaten badly by Miami last week, 27-10. It was so bad that the school fired second-year coach Willie Taggart. Odell Haggins, the school's longtime defensive line coach who was also the interim coach at the end of 2017 when Jimbo Fisher took off for Texas A&M, will fill in again. FSU has to win this game to have a chance to get to a bowl, because it still has to face Florida, a likely loss. Next week, the 'Noles get Alabama State, so a victory over the Eagles this week would virtually guarantee a sixth win. But, I don't think FSU will be able to beat BC, which has played pretty well following its surprising blowout loss to Kansas earlier this season. And the Jayhawks have since beaten Texas Tech and given Texas all it could handle. Les Miles has done a good job there in his first season. If the Eagles don't win this one, they may not get to the postseason with their final two games coming on the road at Notre Dame and Pitt.
Boston College 35, Florida State 33
No. 2 LSU (8-0) at No. 3 Alabama (8-0), 3:30 p.m. CBS
Here's the weekend's premier matchup, and it's a good one for sure. The Tide would normally have the edge because of the Tigers' inability to score. Alabama has won the past eight meetings, with LSU never scoring more than 17 points in that time frame, and the Tide have pitched three shutouts. But the Tigers have a formidable offense this season, led by Heisman-contending QB Joe Burrow. For Alabama, QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a high-ankle sprain against Tennessee on Oct. 19 and has been working hard to come back for this game. Signs point to him playing, of course, because he's a tough kid, and this is a huge game. If he can't go, Mac Jones is Alabama's backup QB. He played well two weeks ago against Arkansas in a blowout, but he's no Tua. Still, as good as LSU's offense has been, Alabama's may be better, with the usual studs at running back (Najee Harris) and wideout (Jerry Jeudy). Both of these teams were off last week. In LSU's last time out, the Tigers were challenged at home by Auburn, coming away with a 23-20 win. I think Tagovailoa toughs it out and plays, and Alabama wins a thriller.
Alabama 30, LSU 27
No. 19 Wake Forest (7-1) at Virginia Tech (5-3), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Demon Deacons are trying to keep their terrific season going. Assuming they lose to Clemson and the Tigers get to the College Football Playoff, the Deacons still have aspirations of getting to the Orange Bowl as the next highest ranked ACC team. QB Jamie Newman and WR Sage Surratt have been breakout stars for Wake. The Hokies are trying to keep pace in the Coastal, hoping to get to Scott Stadium with a chance to win the division. They still have two other ACC games left after this before facing Virginia: at Georgia Tech and home vs. Pitt. Another thing to keep in mind for the Hokies is their bowl streak. They need seven wins to go bowling for a 27th consecutive season due to playing two FCS teams -- six victories won't cut it this year for them. Tech got lots of lucky breaks last week from a bumbling Notre Dame team that turned it over three times in the red zone and gave up a 98-yard fumble return for a TD, and nearly knocked off the Irish in South Bend, but Notre Dame won in the closing seconds. If Tech doesn't win this game, it could be a struggle to find a seventh win, but if it takes down Wake, I think the Hokies will make the postseason, with the bonus of contending for the Coastal if things fall right. Tech's defense is improving, but I don't think the offense will be consistent enough to keep up with Wake's attack. This meeting should be more entertaining than the last time these schools met: the infamous 6-3 double-overtime win in Winston-Salem that was tied 0-0 at the end of regulation.
Wake Forest 31, Virginia Tech 28
Louisville (5-3) at Miami (5-4), 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
Louisville 27, Miami 24
No. 18 Iowa (6-2) at No. 13 Wisconsin (6-2), 4 p.m. Fox
Wisconsin 27, Iowa 17
No. 5 Clemson (9-0) at N.C. State (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Clemson 52, N.C. State 13
No. 15 Notre Dame (6-2) at Duke (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Notre Dame 34, Duke 20
Georgia Tech (2-6) at Virginia (6-3), Noon, NBC Sports Washington/ACC Network Extra
It's been a rough first season in Atlanta for Geoff Collins, the former Temple coach. Everyone knew it would be. The Yellow Jackets for more than a decade were led by Paul Johnson, a purveyor of the triple-option offense. He retired at the end of last season, but a lot of his players are still on the team trying to get used to pro-style concepts.
Not surprisingly, Tech ranks 124th in passing offense nationally. The rushing offense is a bit better, sitting at 75th. But it equals an output of 17.1 points per game, which is 122nd. The Jackets' defense is better, with the pass defense a solid 20th, but run defense is lacking at just 121st, and it gives up 29.1 ppg (81st). But as we know, Virginia loves to pass, not run. Even when it seems like Virginia should run, it passes (and I am referring to running back runs, not runs with Bryce Perkins). Does that mean Cavaliers offensive coordinator Robert Anae will try to call plays that go right at the strength of the Jackets? Hopefully with Perkins looking like his vintage self last week, and backup Brennan Armstrong being healthy, Anae will call Perkins on some runs like last week. Bronco Mendenhall has
The Jackets have been going with two quarterbacks lately, Lucas Johnson and James Graham, who started last week at Pitt, but he struggled in the first half, so Johnson started the second half. Johnson took a big hit, though, and had to come out with an upper-body injury, and his status for this game is uncertain. Graham has completed 43.4 percent of his passes for 723 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. Meanwhile, Johnson, who was injured earlier this season as well, has completed 56.8 percent of his passes for one score and one pick. Graham has run for 122 yards and one TD. Tech's rushing attack is led by Jordan Mason, who has 622 yards, a healthy 5.7 ypc, and six touchdowns. There are three receivers with more than 10 catches: Ahmarean Brown (16 receptions, four TDs), Adonicas Sanders (12, zero), and Malachi Carter (11, one). The lack of a passing game has to be a welcome sight for Virginia's banged up secondary, but the rush defense needs to be ready, too, after getting gashed by North Carolina last week for 186 yards and 539 yards overall. Virginia went into Chapel Hill having not given up 400 yards in a game this season.
Yellow Jackets cornerback Kaleb Oliver has two picks. Tech is -2 in turnover margin and has collected 13 sacks, with linebacker Charlie Thomas leading the way with a pair.
Georgia Tech has two wins: 14-10 over South Florida at home and 28-21 at Miami. The victory over the Hurricanes came a week after Miami topped Virginia, so Tech is capable of winning in Charlottesville and is probably playing a bit better overall than expected, especially after losing to The Citadel of the FCS in September. The six losses, in order, have been: Clemson (52-14), The Citadel (27-24), Temple (24-2), North Carolina (38-22), Duke (41-23), and Pitt (20-10). The Jackets had their bye week after defeating Miami and then lost to Pitt last week.
Obviously the importance of this game for Virginia can't be overstated. Win, and the Cavaliers guarantee themselves a chance to claim the division title by beating Virginia Tech. If they get upset, they then leave their fate in the hands of the football gods. Snapping the losing streak against the Hokies would also then carry the extra meaning of having a must-win situation for the division (and even then, if UVa was to lose to the Jackets but beat the Hokies, it might not win the Coastal). Losing to the Jackets could also mean the Hokies go into the game in Charlottesville with a chance to win the division. But if the 'Hoos win this weekend, that would be more unlikely since I don't think Virginia Tech will go 3-0 against Wake, Georgia Tech, and Pitt.
Georgia Tech isn't a very good team, but it isn't terrible and is capable of upsetting UVa, especially given the Wahoos' inability to run or unwillingness to do so even if game flow calls for it. But back at home, even if they get off to a slow start, I expect the 'Hoos to play a solid enough game to ease past the Jackets.
Virginia 27, Georgia Tech 17
Comments
Post a Comment