Clemson at Virginia, 7 p.m. NBC Sports Washington
After more than a week off, the Cavaliers get back to work trying to cobble together an NCAA tournament resume when they host the Tigers.
If the tournament started today, Virginia, at 14-6 and 6-4 in the ACC, would likely be relegated to the NIT. In ESPN.com's bracket projection for Tuesday, the 'Hoos were moved up to the first spot in the "first four out," group -- up from the "next four out group" -- meaning ESPN sees them as the first team to be left out right now. The win over No. 5 Florida State helped UVa's chances, but there's more "work to do," the category the Wahoos were put in for ESPN.com's first "Bubble Watch," released Sunday. As of now, they don't have enough big wins, and their strength of schedule is nothing to write home about, in the nonconference portion, but also in the ACC, which is experiencing a down year. Only Louisville, Duke, and Florida State are looking like locks to make the tourney. The cases for N.C. State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Virginia are much more tentative. Last year, the league got seven teams in and was viewed as the best or second-best conference in the nation, but getting even five teams in is looking like a stretch in 2020.
In my view, Virginia is one win from being in if the Big Dance began today. One more quality victory, perhaps over N.C. State (53-51 loss), or take away the bad loss to Boston College (60-53 setback to what is now an 11-12 squad), and I think the Cavaliers would be in. If Virginia replicates
its 6-4 ACC record in the second half of the conference schedule, it would finish the regular season at 20-10, 12-8, heading into the ACC tournament. I don't think that would be enough. At that point, I think it would need one, maybe two victories in that first tournament to feel good about its chances to get invited to the big one. The 2012-13 'Hoos, the last time the program was left out of the NCAA tournament, went 21-10 in the regular season, then lost to N.C. State in the first round of the ACC tournament. In the last few games of that season, that team defeated No. 3 Duke at home but also suffered crushing one- and two-point road losses to Boston College and Florida State, respectively. By most projections, UVa was the first or second team left out of the dance.
Whether certain teams make it or not always has just as much to do with other teams on the bubble as it does themselves. The season could develop in such a way that lends itself to Virginia needing fewer -- or more -- wins to look like a tournament team. But as of now, I would give UVa less than a 50 percent chance of earning a berth at 20-10, with its ACC tournament result either adding to or subtracting from that probability. At 21-9, I'd give a 50-50 chance to the 'Hoos, but would reserve the right to increase those odds if any of the wins came over Duke or Louisville, the only ranked teams left on their schedule. And if they could get to 22-8 and 14-6, I'd begin to feel quite certain they'd make it for a seventh consecutive season. Anything fewer than 20 wins in the regular season, you'll be seeing them in the NIT.
The remaining schedule looks like this: Clemson, at Louisville, Notre Dame, at North Carolina, BC, at Pitt, at Virginia Tech, Duke, at Miami, Louisville. The wins Virginia really needs to have in my opinion are over Clemson, Notre Dame, UNC, BC, Pitt, and Miami. Get those six, and the Cavaliers would reach that 20-10 mark that would certainly get them in the conversation. None of those wins would be that good, but it would mean they were able to avoid more bad losses. Getting a victory at Virginia Tech would be a nice bonus, and any victory over Louisville or Duke would be a double bonus. I'd view any loss to any of the teams in the "really need to have these" category as a win Virginia would then need to steal in the four tougher games (at Lville, at VT, Duke, Lville). View the first six games I listed as a chance to lose a point and the last four games as a chance to gain a point. So if the Cavaliers win all six of the easier games and lose all four of the more difficult games, their "score" would be 0. They need to stay at 0 or in the positive to have a fighting chance to make the tourney.
There is so much that can be explored when discussing the tournament and the team's profile. For an in-depth and longer read on Virginia's case this season, check out this article at HoosPlace.com.
The midpoint of the conference schedule and week off is a good time for fans to catch their breath and assess the team and its chances in a realistic way. I'm sure Tony Bennett and the players aren't assessing their chances, but they are assessing themselves and trying to get better. All Bennett wants each of his teams to do is max out its potential. If it does, he can live with the result. And I think that's how we should feel as fans. Obviously, what we all want is another NCAA tournament berth, but I think if that doesn't happen, we can live with the NIT after what we got to experience last year. It's OK to be disappointed, though, with how the team has performed at times this season. Just keep rooting the players on and be fair in your assessment.
As I alluded to, avoiding bad losses is as important as recording big wins when putting together a good profile. Tonight, Virginia is trying to not fall into the negative with a bad loss. Clemson has a very nice win over Duke, but that's about it. Here's more on this year's Tigers:
Record: 11-10, 5-6
Coach: Brad Brownell, 10th year at Clemson, 180-137; 17th year overall, 347-222
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (13.3), senior 6-6 guard Tevin Mack (12.1)
Leading rebounders: Simms (7.6), Mack (5.5), 6-4 junior Clyde Trapp (4)
Assist leaders: Trapp (2.6), 6-2 freshman guard Al-Amir Dawes (2.6), Simms (2.5), 6-5 sophomore guard John Newman III (2.3)
Notable: Five players average between 6 and 9.6 points per game, with Newman leading the way in that bunch at 9.6. Trapp tore his ACL over the summer and returned in January. Clemson has a rotation of about eight to nine players. Newman (1.2), Simms (1), 6-4 senior guard Curran Scott (1),
and Mack (1) all average at least one steal. Simms gets about one block per game (0.8)
Best win: No. 3 Duke at home, 79-72, on Jan. 14
Worst win: Wake Forest at home, 71-68
Other wins: Presbyterian, Colgate, Alabama A&M, Detroit, TCU, Jacksonville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest (home), Syracuse
Best loss: No. 21 Colorado, 71-67, in Las Vegas in November; the Buffaloes are now No. 24 with a record of 17-5
Worst loss: A couple stand out and they came consecutively: home loss to Miami, 73-68. The Hurricanes are 11-10 and 3-8 in the ACC; and at home against Yale, 54-45. The Bulldogs are 16-4, but still, losing to an Ivy League school at home by nine? Not good. But maybe Yale could win a game or two in the NCAA tournament.
Other losses: Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Florida State, South Carolina, N.C. State, Louisville, Wake Forest (road)
What Clemson does well: The Tigers are fairly solid on defense, giving up 64.9 points per game (70th in the nation), a shooting percentage of 41.1 (102nd), and a 3-point percentage of 31.9 (115th).
What Clemson doesn't do well: Offense has been a struggle. The Tigers are scoring 67.2 ppg (318th), shooting 42.4 percent from the field (249th), and 31.6 percent beyond the arc (269th).
As it has with lots of ACC teams, Virginia has dominated this series recently, winning the past nine matchups by an average score of 67.1-52.2. UVa has not scored below 61 in that stretch. Of course, as has been reiterated in each Cavaliers broadcast lately, the 'Hoos have yet to score more than 65 this season. Given the time off, Virginia should feel rested. Clemson's defense is pretty good, though, so we will see if that means the fresh Wahoos can get into the 60s, which would give them a really good chance to win, as they are undefeated when scoring at least 60 this year. But there's always the chance that the team is more rusty than rested, too. It's difficult to predict how a team will look coming off of a break, but hopefully the guys are energized after their big victory over Florida State, looking to start the second half of the ACC schedule the way it finished the first half, with positive momentum.
It would be great if Virginia could get off to a fast start, something it hasn't done much this season. Even in the victory over the Seminoles, the Cavaliers still fell behind 11-3 early. The Tigers, with their lack of 3-point shooting and overall scoring, could find it difficult to come back if they get in a hole, and of course, UVa is more effective when it gets out front and can play its game. But interestingly, according to HoosPlace.com, Clemson has trailed in six of its past seven ACC games, and yet has won three of those games. So it wouldn't shock anyone if Virginia has a second-half lead once again as the game nears its conclusion. The Tigers have some experience rallying, though, so the question will be whether UVa can close out another victory.
Despite not shooting that well from beyond the arc, Clemson puts up a lot of 3s, with 46 percent of its shots coming from deep, the second-highest rate in the ACC. Of the players who receive major minutes, Simms has the best percentage at 38.1. He only has 63 attempts, though, three per game. The other Tigers who are shooting at least 30 percent on 3-pointers: 6-8 sophomore forward Hunter Tyson (33.3), Scott (32.1), Trapp (31.4), Newman (31.3), and 6-3 freshman guard Chase Hunter (30.4). Mack has taken the most 3s on the team (109, 5.2 per game), but is only shooting 27.5 percent. Freshman 6-3 guard Alex Hemenway has made 53.8 percent, but on just 13 tries, and he plays only 11 minutes per game. However, he was 2 of 5 against Wake Forest on Saturday.
Clemson also plays quite small and pays for it on the glass, with an average rebounding margin of about -1, around 230th in the country. So Virginia should be able to do a good job of limiting the Tigers to one chance on offense, and given their shooting percentages, there will probably be lots of action on the boards. UVa needs to be solid in this area.
Clemson is capable of winning at John Paul Jones Arena, but Virginia has the edge on paper. Though the Tigers upset Duke, that was definitely an outlier in their season. The victories over N.C. State and Syracuse are solid, but they are offset by the defeats against Wake Forest, Miami, South Carolina, and Yale (though as I mentioned, maybe I should be careful about writing off the Bulldogs; always hard to evaluate a 16-4 Ivy League squad). Clemson's offense is not that powerful, and if Virginia's defense is its usual solid self, the Tigers will probably find it tough to get into the high 50s. If the Cavaliers can continue to find ways to score and play good, smart ball down the stretch, I like their chances at home in a game it feels like they really need in their hopes of making it back to the Big Dance.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
After more than a week off, the Cavaliers get back to work trying to cobble together an NCAA tournament resume when they host the Tigers.
If the tournament started today, Virginia, at 14-6 and 6-4 in the ACC, would likely be relegated to the NIT. In ESPN.com's bracket projection for Tuesday, the 'Hoos were moved up to the first spot in the "first four out," group -- up from the "next four out group" -- meaning ESPN sees them as the first team to be left out right now. The win over No. 5 Florida State helped UVa's chances, but there's more "work to do," the category the Wahoos were put in for ESPN.com's first "Bubble Watch," released Sunday. As of now, they don't have enough big wins, and their strength of schedule is nothing to write home about, in the nonconference portion, but also in the ACC, which is experiencing a down year. Only Louisville, Duke, and Florida State are looking like locks to make the tourney. The cases for N.C. State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Virginia are much more tentative. Last year, the league got seven teams in and was viewed as the best or second-best conference in the nation, but getting even five teams in is looking like a stretch in 2020.
In my view, Virginia is one win from being in if the Big Dance began today. One more quality victory, perhaps over N.C. State (53-51 loss), or take away the bad loss to Boston College (60-53 setback to what is now an 11-12 squad), and I think the Cavaliers would be in. If Virginia replicates
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| Mamadi Diakite lines up for one of his 3s against Florida State. Virginia needs more of that as the season goes on and the 'Hoos look to make the NCAA tournament for the seventh straight time. |
Whether certain teams make it or not always has just as much to do with other teams on the bubble as it does themselves. The season could develop in such a way that lends itself to Virginia needing fewer -- or more -- wins to look like a tournament team. But as of now, I would give UVa less than a 50 percent chance of earning a berth at 20-10, with its ACC tournament result either adding to or subtracting from that probability. At 21-9, I'd give a 50-50 chance to the 'Hoos, but would reserve the right to increase those odds if any of the wins came over Duke or Louisville, the only ranked teams left on their schedule. And if they could get to 22-8 and 14-6, I'd begin to feel quite certain they'd make it for a seventh consecutive season. Anything fewer than 20 wins in the regular season, you'll be seeing them in the NIT.
The remaining schedule looks like this: Clemson, at Louisville, Notre Dame, at North Carolina, BC, at Pitt, at Virginia Tech, Duke, at Miami, Louisville. The wins Virginia really needs to have in my opinion are over Clemson, Notre Dame, UNC, BC, Pitt, and Miami. Get those six, and the Cavaliers would reach that 20-10 mark that would certainly get them in the conversation. None of those wins would be that good, but it would mean they were able to avoid more bad losses. Getting a victory at Virginia Tech would be a nice bonus, and any victory over Louisville or Duke would be a double bonus. I'd view any loss to any of the teams in the "really need to have these" category as a win Virginia would then need to steal in the four tougher games (at Lville, at VT, Duke, Lville). View the first six games I listed as a chance to lose a point and the last four games as a chance to gain a point. So if the Cavaliers win all six of the easier games and lose all four of the more difficult games, their "score" would be 0. They need to stay at 0 or in the positive to have a fighting chance to make the tourney.
There is so much that can be explored when discussing the tournament and the team's profile. For an in-depth and longer read on Virginia's case this season, check out this article at HoosPlace.com.
The midpoint of the conference schedule and week off is a good time for fans to catch their breath and assess the team and its chances in a realistic way. I'm sure Tony Bennett and the players aren't assessing their chances, but they are assessing themselves and trying to get better. All Bennett wants each of his teams to do is max out its potential. If it does, he can live with the result. And I think that's how we should feel as fans. Obviously, what we all want is another NCAA tournament berth, but I think if that doesn't happen, we can live with the NIT after what we got to experience last year. It's OK to be disappointed, though, with how the team has performed at times this season. Just keep rooting the players on and be fair in your assessment.
As I alluded to, avoiding bad losses is as important as recording big wins when putting together a good profile. Tonight, Virginia is trying to not fall into the negative with a bad loss. Clemson has a very nice win over Duke, but that's about it. Here's more on this year's Tigers:
Record: 11-10, 5-6
Coach: Brad Brownell, 10th year at Clemson, 180-137; 17th year overall, 347-222
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (13.3), senior 6-6 guard Tevin Mack (12.1)
Leading rebounders: Simms (7.6), Mack (5.5), 6-4 junior Clyde Trapp (4)
Assist leaders: Trapp (2.6), 6-2 freshman guard Al-Amir Dawes (2.6), Simms (2.5), 6-5 sophomore guard John Newman III (2.3)
Notable: Five players average between 6 and 9.6 points per game, with Newman leading the way in that bunch at 9.6. Trapp tore his ACL over the summer and returned in January. Clemson has a rotation of about eight to nine players. Newman (1.2), Simms (1), 6-4 senior guard Curran Scott (1),
Best win: No. 3 Duke at home, 79-72, on Jan. 14
Worst win: Wake Forest at home, 71-68
Other wins: Presbyterian, Colgate, Alabama A&M, Detroit, TCU, Jacksonville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest (home), Syracuse
Best loss: No. 21 Colorado, 71-67, in Las Vegas in November; the Buffaloes are now No. 24 with a record of 17-5
Worst loss: A couple stand out and they came consecutively: home loss to Miami, 73-68. The Hurricanes are 11-10 and 3-8 in the ACC; and at home against Yale, 54-45. The Bulldogs are 16-4, but still, losing to an Ivy League school at home by nine? Not good. But maybe Yale could win a game or two in the NCAA tournament.
Other losses: Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Florida State, South Carolina, N.C. State, Louisville, Wake Forest (road)
What Clemson does well: The Tigers are fairly solid on defense, giving up 64.9 points per game (70th in the nation), a shooting percentage of 41.1 (102nd), and a 3-point percentage of 31.9 (115th).
What Clemson doesn't do well: Offense has been a struggle. The Tigers are scoring 67.2 ppg (318th), shooting 42.4 percent from the field (249th), and 31.6 percent beyond the arc (269th).
As it has with lots of ACC teams, Virginia has dominated this series recently, winning the past nine matchups by an average score of 67.1-52.2. UVa has not scored below 61 in that stretch. Of course, as has been reiterated in each Cavaliers broadcast lately, the 'Hoos have yet to score more than 65 this season. Given the time off, Virginia should feel rested. Clemson's defense is pretty good, though, so we will see if that means the fresh Wahoos can get into the 60s, which would give them a really good chance to win, as they are undefeated when scoring at least 60 this year. But there's always the chance that the team is more rusty than rested, too. It's difficult to predict how a team will look coming off of a break, but hopefully the guys are energized after their big victory over Florida State, looking to start the second half of the ACC schedule the way it finished the first half, with positive momentum.
It would be great if Virginia could get off to a fast start, something it hasn't done much this season. Even in the victory over the Seminoles, the Cavaliers still fell behind 11-3 early. The Tigers, with their lack of 3-point shooting and overall scoring, could find it difficult to come back if they get in a hole, and of course, UVa is more effective when it gets out front and can play its game. But interestingly, according to HoosPlace.com, Clemson has trailed in six of its past seven ACC games, and yet has won three of those games. So it wouldn't shock anyone if Virginia has a second-half lead once again as the game nears its conclusion. The Tigers have some experience rallying, though, so the question will be whether UVa can close out another victory.
Despite not shooting that well from beyond the arc, Clemson puts up a lot of 3s, with 46 percent of its shots coming from deep, the second-highest rate in the ACC. Of the players who receive major minutes, Simms has the best percentage at 38.1. He only has 63 attempts, though, three per game. The other Tigers who are shooting at least 30 percent on 3-pointers: 6-8 sophomore forward Hunter Tyson (33.3), Scott (32.1), Trapp (31.4), Newman (31.3), and 6-3 freshman guard Chase Hunter (30.4). Mack has taken the most 3s on the team (109, 5.2 per game), but is only shooting 27.5 percent. Freshman 6-3 guard Alex Hemenway has made 53.8 percent, but on just 13 tries, and he plays only 11 minutes per game. However, he was 2 of 5 against Wake Forest on Saturday.
Clemson also plays quite small and pays for it on the glass, with an average rebounding margin of about -1, around 230th in the country. So Virginia should be able to do a good job of limiting the Tigers to one chance on offense, and given their shooting percentages, there will probably be lots of action on the boards. UVa needs to be solid in this area.
Clemson is capable of winning at John Paul Jones Arena, but Virginia has the edge on paper. Though the Tigers upset Duke, that was definitely an outlier in their season. The victories over N.C. State and Syracuse are solid, but they are offset by the defeats against Wake Forest, Miami, South Carolina, and Yale (though as I mentioned, maybe I should be careful about writing off the Bulldogs; always hard to evaluate a 16-4 Ivy League squad). Clemson's offense is not that powerful, and if Virginia's defense is its usual solid self, the Tigers will probably find it tough to get into the high 50s. If the Cavaliers can continue to find ways to score and play good, smart ball down the stretch, I like their chances at home in a game it feels like they really need in their hopes of making it back to the Big Dance.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
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