Virginia at Pittsburgh, Noon, ESPN2
For the first time since Jan. 4, the Wahoos defeated an ACC team by double digits with their 13-point victory over Boston College on Wednesday. Now they'll see if they can take that performance on the road to face Pittsburgh, a team still finding itself under second-year coach Jeff Capel. The Panthers have had an up-and-down season, with more down lately, but they certainly have enough to spring an upset. Here's more on this Pitt squad:
Record: 15-12, 6-10
Coach: Capel, second year at Pitt, 29-31; 11th year overall, 204-141
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-6 freshman guard Justin Champagnie (12.4), 6-4 sophomore guard Trey McGowens (12.1), 6-3 sophomore guard Xavier Johnson (11.8)
Leading rebounders: Champagnie (7.2), 6-6 sophomore guard Au-Diese Toney (5), 6-9 senior forward Eric Hamilton (4.2), Johnson (3.8)
Assist leaders: Johnson (5.1), McGowens (3.6), 6-2 junior guard Ryan Murphy (1.5)
Notable: Seven players average double-figure minutes, with two more just on the outside of 10 minutes per game. Four players average between 5.4 and 9 points per game, with Toney pacing that pack. McGowens (1.9 steals per game), Johnson (1.6), Champagnie (1.1), Toney (1.1), and Murphy (1) are capable thieves. Junior 6-10 forward Terrell Brown averages 1.7 blocks.
Best win: Opening-season victory at home over Florida State, which was unranked at the time, 63-61; of course, the Seminoles are now 22-4 and 12-3.
Worst win: Canisius, 87-79; the Golden Griffins are 9-16
Other wins: Robert Morris, Monmouth, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Northern Illinois, Binghamton, North Carolina (home and away), Boston College, Miami, Georgia
Tech
Best loss: Louisville at home, 73-68
Worst loss: Nicholls at home, 75-70; the Colonels are 18-9 but hail from the Southland Conference (worth noting, though, the league's best team, Stephen F. Austin, won at Duke and is 23-3)
Other losses: West Virginia, Louisville (road), Wake Forest, Miami, Syracuse, Duke, Notre Dame, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State (road)
What Pittsburgh does well: The defense is pretty good all around. The Panthers are allowing 64.6 points per game (54th) and a shooting percentage of 42.3 from the field (149th). Pitt is good at stealing the ball, getting 7.7 per game (61st) and causing turnovers, 15.4 per game (49th) with a turnover margin of +3.5 per game (21st), meaning they are also pretty good at taking care of the ball, especially for such a young team.
What Pittsburgh doesn't do well: Offense and shooting have been issues that have gone hand-in-hand. The Panthers are shooting just 40.7 percent from the field (319th) and 29.4 percent beyond the arc (324th).
In their second season under Capel, the young Panthers have improved, but they still aren't competing on a consistent basis. The victory in the season-opener over FSU was great, but maybe that was before the Seminoles realized how good they were. Pitt also competed hard at Duke and almost knocked off Louisville at home. Lately, Pitt has started to take on more water, losing four of five, including a 20-point home loss to Clemson. As Virginia fans should remember, though, it takes a few years to get up to speed in the ACC when you're rebuilding. In his second season in Charlottesville, Tony Bennett's team went 16-15 and 7-9. Capel has already doubled 2018-19's conference win total (to six from three) and has one more victory overall with four regular-season games remaining, including this one.
Another area Pitt excels in is getting to the free throw line. The Panthers are especially good at it at home, getting 25 attempts per game. Overall, they average 20.4 and have 550 overall (tied-88th). They are OK at making them once they get there, not fantastic, sitting at 72 percent (133rd). Of course, Pitt came into John Paul Jones Arena with that reputation last season and only ended up with 13 free throw attempts in a 73-49 drubbing at the hands of UVa. Virginia is once again superior at not fouling, tied for third in the nation for fewest fouls, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Panthers eke out a few more free throws at the Petersen Events Center.
It is good that Pitt is solid at forcing turnovers, because its 3-point defense is lacking, as the Panthers give up a percentage beyond the arc of 34.1 (244th). Perhaps Virginia can keep its 3-point shooting trending in the right direction. Pitt also has problems on the boards, sporting a rebounding margin of -1.5 per game, which places them between 250th and 300th. HoosPlace.com's preview reports that Pitt is good at crashing the offensive glass, but poor on the defensive side, so hopefully UVa can get some second-chance points.
I feel like this matchup could go either way. That isn't saying much in this season of close games, but even with UVa playing better and Pitt seemingly losing steam late in the season, this feels like a tight one down the stretch. I'm worried about Pitt's ability to drive the lane with multiple guards and get to the line and wondering if this will be one of those games where we are getting upset at the referees. The Cavaliers will likely be without Casey Morsell, who rolled his ankle against Boston College, and his ability to play strong perimeter defense will be missed.
I'm also wondering if Virginia can continue to take care of the ball like it is has recently, or if it will revert a bit and pile up double-digit turnovers. And just because the Panthers aren't shooting well on 3-pointers doesn't mean they can't go off in one game. If I remember correctly, when UVa visited Pitt in 2016-17, the Panthers weren't particularly great from beyond the arc, but got hot enough to take down that London Perrantes-led Wahoos squad in overtime. Virginia went on to defeat Pittsburgh at JPJ and in the ACC tournament that season, both times by double digits. When Pitt is hunting 3s, the guys to watch out for are Murphy (34.5 percent), Johnson (31.6), Toney (31.4), McGowens (29.6), and Champagnie (26.5).
A loss at Pitt would not be as bad as a loss at JPJ against BC. But still, it wouldn't be a good look as Virginia fights to show off its resume to the NCAA tournament selection committee. Every win helps at this point. I'll take the 'Hoos to pull it out.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Comments
Post a Comment