Virginia at Miami, 9 p.m. ACC Network
I mentioned Miami's offense isn't good, either, and that's because the Hurricanes are scoring only 72.5 ppg (147th) and shooting 43.6 percent from the field (189th) and 32.1 percent (241st) on 3-pointers. Miami is led in 3-point shooting by 6-3 freshman guard Isaiah Wong (40 percent, but on only 40 attempts), Lykes (37.9), Vasiljevic (34.2), and McGusty (32.7). The Hurricanes also rank low nationally in assists with 10 per game (344th) and rebounding margin, -4 per game (327th).
Despite lots of inconsistency, the Hurricanes have done a few good things this season. The win at Illinois in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge was very solid. The 'Canes also won at Clemson, not something that Duke, Louisville, or FSU can say. Miami also really challenged FSU in Miami.
Most recently, Miami lost two in a row on the road, getting blown out by Notre Dame but playing Georgia Tech close. Before that, the 'Canes won three straight for their longest winning streak in the conference this season, although the victories came against BC, Wake, and VT.
Miami has won its past two home games (BC, Wake). At Miami, UVa has split its past two contests, winning as the No. 1 team in the country, 59-50, in 2017-18 and losing, 64-61, as the No. 3 team when Miami was No. 12 in 2015-16. Normally, it hasn't been a place where Virginia has an easy time winning. Last year, UVa faced the Hurricanes once, in Charlottesville, and was missing Ty Jerome. The game was pretty rough, but the 'Hoos prevailed, 56-46. Virginia has had a tough time scoring against Miami recently, averaging just 54.3 points the past three games of the series. Hopefully the shoddy defense of the Hurricanes shows up tonight and Virginia can get its 3-point shooting back on track particularly Tomas Woldetensae, who has now cooled off, making just 1 of his past 8 3s against Duke and Virginia Tech.
I think UVa fans feel like something has been accomplished. Beating Duke is always a good time, and the general feeling is that the Wahoos are going dancing and getting a chance to defend their national championship. These close games have been fun but exhausting. A road game at a .500 team in Miami lacks sizzle coming off of a rivalry game at Virginia Tech and then hosting Duke. Fans probably aren't too "up" for this matchup.
Of course, Tony Bennett's challenge is making sure that doesn't happen with his players. Any lack of effort in the ACC this year gets punished. The top of the league is probably not as good as it was last season, but the middle and bottom is definitely better, as showcased by games such as Duke at UNC, UVa at UNC, Louisville at Georgia Tech, Wake leading Louisville by double digits at the half at Louisville, and Wake beating Duke.
I do think Bennett will keep his players' attention. These close games have made the team lock in constantly. It's becoming natural. The Cavaliers also have a recent reminder of what happens if they let their guard down -- when they almost blew their 14-point lead against Pitt in the closing minutes, and also blowing a 15-point margin at Virginia Tech. So I think Bennett will draw on those experiences and dangle the possibility of sharing the ACC regular-season title in front of his players in order to get a good effort. Wahoos win, but guess what? It's close.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
After their big win over Duke, the Cavaliers head on the road for the final time this season to face the Hurricanes. It's looking highly likely that Virginia has locked up an NCAA tournament bid, but it must win tonight and against Louisville at home Saturday to have any shot of sharing the ACC regular-season title.
As it stands now, Louisville leads the league at 15-4. It doesn't play until Saturday. Florida State is second at 14-4. The Seminoles play at Notre Dame tonight, also at 9. Duke is 14-5 and in third. It beat N.C. State on Monday and hosts North Carolina on Saturday. Virginia is fourth at the moment at 13-5, but holds the tiebreaker over the Blue Devils since they just beat them. Of course, the Cardinals just need to defeat Virginia and the ACC regular-season title is theirs alone.
Virginia can't win the regular-season championship outright, but it can share it, and the most likely scenario to do that would be this: Cavaliers win out, Seminoles drop a tough road game in South Bend but beat Boston College on Saturday, and Duke beats UNC. All four teams would then be 15-5. As for ACC tournament seeding in that case, I thought I had it figured out earlier today, but I forgot to include Duke in the scenario; at first, I was only counting FSU, Louisville, and UVa. If you want to check out the ACC's tiebreaking procedures, click here. I *think* in that four-way tie, UVa would be the No. 2 seed, but I'm not going into why since we have too many games left.
First up is Miami, and if Virginia doesn't take care of business in South Florida, tiebreaking procedures for first place won't matter to the Cavaliers. Here's more on the Hurricanes:
As it stands now, Louisville leads the league at 15-4. It doesn't play until Saturday. Florida State is second at 14-4. The Seminoles play at Notre Dame tonight, also at 9. Duke is 14-5 and in third. It beat N.C. State on Monday and hosts North Carolina on Saturday. Virginia is fourth at the moment at 13-5, but holds the tiebreaker over the Blue Devils since they just beat them. Of course, the Cardinals just need to defeat Virginia and the ACC regular-season title is theirs alone.
Virginia can't win the regular-season championship outright, but it can share it, and the most likely scenario to do that would be this: Cavaliers win out, Seminoles drop a tough road game in South Bend but beat Boston College on Saturday, and Duke beats UNC. All four teams would then be 15-5. As for ACC tournament seeding in that case, I thought I had it figured out earlier today, but I forgot to include Duke in the scenario; at first, I was only counting FSU, Louisville, and UVa. If you want to check out the ACC's tiebreaking procedures, click here. I *think* in that four-way tie, UVa would be the No. 2 seed, but I'm not going into why since we have too many games left.
First up is Miami, and if Virginia doesn't take care of business in South Florida, tiebreaking procedures for first place won't matter to the Cavaliers. Here's more on the Hurricanes:
Record: 14-14, 6-12
Scorers in double figures: 5-foot-7 junior guard Chris Lykes (15.2), 6-3 senior guard Dejan Vasiljevic (13.2), 6-5 junior guard Kameron McGusty (13)
Leading rebounders: 6-10 junior forward Sam Waardenburg (5.9), 7-foot junior center Rodney Miller Jr. (5.8), 6-8 senior forward Keith Stone (4.4), Vasiljevic (4.2), McGusty (4.1)
Assist leaders: Lykes (2.5), 6-4 freshman guard Harlond Beverly (2.5)
Notable: Nine players average double-figure minutes. The other players receiving major minutes score between 3.5 and 7.6 ppg, with three landing right on the 7.6 mark. Lykes (1.1) and Stone (0.9)
average one steal. Waardenburg and Miller average 1 and 0.8 blocks, respectively.
Best win: At Illinois, 81-79, in early December. The Fighting Illini are 20-9 and headed to the NCAA tournament.
Worst win: Missouri State at the Charleston (S.C.) Classic, 74-70. The Bears from the Missouri Valley Conference are 15-16.
Other wins: Florida Atlantic, UCF, Quinnipiac, Alabama A&M, Temple, Coppin State, Clemson, Pittsburgh (home), Virginia Tech (home and road), Boston College, Wake Forest
Best loss: No. 9 Florida State at home, 83-79
Worst loss: Losing to just a so-so Connecticut team 80-55 at the Charleston Classic was pretty bad.
Other losses: Louisville (home and road), Florida, Duke (home and road), N.C. State (home and road), Pittsburgh (road), North Carolina, Florida State (road), Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
What Miami does well: Free throw shooting. The Hurricanes shoot 75.5 percent from the stripe, which ranks 35th.
What Miami doesn't do well: The offense hasn't been great but the defense has probably been a bit worse. The Hurricanes are giving up 74.6 points per game (301st) and a 44.7 field goal shooting percentage (265th), including 34.6 percent beyond the arc (270th).
I mentioned Miami's offense isn't good, either, and that's because the Hurricanes are scoring only 72.5 ppg (147th) and shooting 43.6 percent from the field (189th) and 32.1 percent (241st) on 3-pointers. Miami is led in 3-point shooting by 6-3 freshman guard Isaiah Wong (40 percent, but on only 40 attempts), Lykes (37.9), Vasiljevic (34.2), and McGusty (32.7). The Hurricanes also rank low nationally in assists with 10 per game (344th) and rebounding margin, -4 per game (327th).
Despite lots of inconsistency, the Hurricanes have done a few good things this season. The win at Illinois in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge was very solid. The 'Canes also won at Clemson, not something that Duke, Louisville, or FSU can say. Miami also really challenged FSU in Miami.
Most recently, Miami lost two in a row on the road, getting blown out by Notre Dame but playing Georgia Tech close. Before that, the 'Canes won three straight for their longest winning streak in the conference this season, although the victories came against BC, Wake, and VT.
Miami has won its past two home games (BC, Wake). At Miami, UVa has split its past two contests, winning as the No. 1 team in the country, 59-50, in 2017-18 and losing, 64-61, as the No. 3 team when Miami was No. 12 in 2015-16. Normally, it hasn't been a place where Virginia has an easy time winning. Last year, UVa faced the Hurricanes once, in Charlottesville, and was missing Ty Jerome. The game was pretty rough, but the 'Hoos prevailed, 56-46. Virginia has had a tough time scoring against Miami recently, averaging just 54.3 points the past three games of the series. Hopefully the shoddy defense of the Hurricanes shows up tonight and Virginia can get its 3-point shooting back on track particularly Tomas Woldetensae, who has now cooled off, making just 1 of his past 8 3s against Duke and Virginia Tech.
I think UVa fans feel like something has been accomplished. Beating Duke is always a good time, and the general feeling is that the Wahoos are going dancing and getting a chance to defend their national championship. These close games have been fun but exhausting. A road game at a .500 team in Miami lacks sizzle coming off of a rivalry game at Virginia Tech and then hosting Duke. Fans probably aren't too "up" for this matchup.
Of course, Tony Bennett's challenge is making sure that doesn't happen with his players. Any lack of effort in the ACC this year gets punished. The top of the league is probably not as good as it was last season, but the middle and bottom is definitely better, as showcased by games such as Duke at UNC, UVa at UNC, Louisville at Georgia Tech, Wake leading Louisville by double digits at the half at Louisville, and Wake beating Duke.
I do think Bennett will keep his players' attention. These close games have made the team lock in constantly. It's becoming natural. The Cavaliers also have a recent reminder of what happens if they let their guard down -- when they almost blew their 14-point lead against Pitt in the closing minutes, and also blowing a 15-point margin at Virginia Tech. So I think Bennett will draw on those experiences and dangle the possibility of sharing the ACC regular-season title in front of his players in order to get a good effort. Wahoos win, but guess what? It's close.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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