What could an expanded playoff look like in 2020? (plus picks)

College Football Playoff semifinals

Rose Bowl: No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1) vs. No. 1 Alabama (11-0) in Arlington, 4 p.m. ESPN
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State (6-0) vs. No. 2 Clemson (10-1) in New Orleans, 8 p.m. ESPN

In 2020, when COVID-19 put the college football world into a blender and spit out an abstract painting, the sport would have benefited greatly from an expanded playoff. Limited nonconference schedules, differing start dates for the Power Five conferences, and no one in charge led to more imbalance and confusion than usual in the College Football Playoff rankings.

I mean, things were so weird, even Notre Dame was in the ACC in 2020.

Plus, two Group of Five schools won at least nine games and went undefeated, No. 8 Cincinnati (9-0) and No. 12 Coastal Carolina (11-0). They did not even reach the top six, again leading to a rising chorus of voices opposing the way the top four is chosen. By now, most fans realize a non-Power Five team has virtually no chance of making the playoff as it is currently constructed. Both ultimately lost in tight bowl games -- Coastal to Liberty and Cincy to Georgia -- but it would be nice for the little guy to at least get a shot each season. This happens in March Madness, so why not in football?

The result was Ohio State, which only played six games, getting into the top four, and teams with two losses, such as No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 7 Florida, being ranked ahead of Cincy and Coastal.

So, like I did in 2019 and 2018, I'm going to take a look at what eight- and 16-team playoffs would have looked like this season. In each setup, I give the Power Five conference champions automatic bids.

First, for reference, here's the top 16 in the CFP rankings, which I will use for my seedings: 1. Alabama. 2. Clemson. 3. Ohio State. 4. Notre Dame. 5. Texas A&M. 6. Oklahoma. 7. Florida. 8. Cincinnati. 9. Georgia. 10. Iowa State. 11. Indiana. 12. Coastal Carolina. 13. North Carolina. 14. Northwestern. 15. Iowa. 16. BYU.

OK, here we go, starting with two setups for an eight-team playoff.

Eight teams: Group of Five 'champ,' two wild cards

In this bracket, every Power Five champ gets in, the best Group of Five team, plus two wild cards. For the sake of how things normally work, Notre Dame will not be considered an ACC team and thus, it will earn one of the wild cards.

No. 1 Alabama (SEC, 11-0) vs. No. 8 Oregon (Pac-12, 4-2)
No. 4 Notre Dame (wild card, 10-1) vs. No. 5 Texas A&M (wild card, 8-1)
No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten, 6-0) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma (Big 12, 8-2)
No. 2 Clemson (ACC, 10-1) vs. No. 7 Cincinnati (best G5 team, 9-0)

First four out: Florida, Georgia, Iowa State, Indiana

There are some nice matchups here, and I don't think many people would grumble about the teams selected -- well, except maybe the fact that Oregon got in at 4-2. Florida and Georgia didn't do anything special that would have warranted their selection, and Iowa State and Indiana had great seasons and were feel-good stories, but no one could rightly put them among the top eight.

Eight teams: three wild cards

Next up, this version has three wild cards and no guarantee for the best Group of Five school. And in fact, this would be a very controversial bracket if it was real.

No. 1 Alabama (SEC, 11-0) vs. No. 8 Oregon (Pac-12, 4-2)
No. 4 Notre Dame (wild card, 10-1) vs. No. 5 Texas A&M (wild card, 8-1)
No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten, 6-0) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma (Big 12, 8-2)
No. 2 Clemson (ACC, 10-1) vs. No. 7 Florida (wild card, 8-2)

First four out: Cincinnati, Georgia, Iowa State, Indiana

The controversy is, of course, the fact that Florida would be in over Cincinnati. This exact thing was talked about in the regular rankings when it had no real implications, but in an eight-team tournament with the teams selected via CFP rankings, it would. The Gators lost to a subpar LSU team and, for some reason, barely dropped in the rankings, remaining ahead of the Bearcats.

16-teams: 10 champs, six wild cards

There are obviously several ways to set up these brackets. With 16 teams, though, I say give every conference champ a reward for winning a league, no matter how small the chances are they actually advance. Plus, there are still six wild cards, so any P5 team worth its salt can still get in. Let's take a look at this bracket:

No. 1 Alabama (SEC, 11-0) vs. No. 16 UAB (CUSA, 6-3)
No. 8 Cincinnati (AAC, 9-0) vs. No. 9 Georgia (wild card, 7-2)
No. 4 Notre Dame (wild card, 10-1) vs. No. 13 San Jose State (Mountain West, 7-0)
No. 5 Texas A&M (wild card, 8-1) vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt, 11-0)
No. 6 Oklahoma (Big 12, 8-2) vs. No. 11 Indiana (wild card, 6-1)
No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten, 6-0) vs. No. 14 Oregon (Pac-12, 4-2)
No. 7 Florida (wild card, 8-3) vs. No. 10 Iowa State (wild card, 8-3)
No. 2 Clemson (ACC, 10-1) vs. No. 15 Ball State (MAC, 6-1)

First four out: North Carolina, Northwestern, Iowa, BYU

This is definitely a bloated-looking bracket, but maybe the only fair solution to wrap up the 2020 football season. Cincinnati and Coastal get in, plus a host of Power Five wild cards. BYU would get left out after finishing 11-1, its lone loss coming to Coastal. At 12-0, the Cougars would have had a real shot to be in. However, not being in a conference would still hurt BYU's chances.

No matter what an expanded playoff may look like, it will always favor Power Five teams. If you are an Alabama or a Notre Dame, you can afford to lose a game and still make the top 16, top eight, maybe even top four some years, as the Irish did this season. But if you are a Cincy, a Coastal, a BYU, you have little to no chance at making the top four, and even going undefeated, the top eight can be a stretch. So while college football will always choose Power Five big boys over Group of Five underdogs in any type of postseason, at least an expanded playoff would be less blatantly favoring them.

Picks

As I finish writing this, Alabama is already ahead of Notre Dame, 14-0, after the first quarter. This is not surprising to me, and part of the reason why I had no problem choosing a score after the game had kicked off. Like most fans, I thought the Fighting Irish would have little chance, again, versus the Crimson Tide.
Alabama 38, Notre Dame 10

The best game is in prime time anyway, when the Tigers and Buckeyes battle for the second straight season in the semifinals. These two teams played a whale of a contest last year with Clemson prevailing, 29-23. OSU has had another nice campaign, but looking at its results, I don't see much dominance. It also has not had a taste of anyone outside the Big Ten. Clemson has its QB, Trevor Lawrence, back and healthy, and it will be focused and hungry to get another shot in the title game after falling to LSU last January. The Tigers will edge the Buckeyes.
Clemson 33, Ohio State 27

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