No. 4 Virginia (18-6) vs. No. 13 Ohio (16-7), today in Bloomington, Ind., 7:15 p.m., truTV
The Wahoos begin their national championship defense tonight in the NCAA tournament and will probably face a stiff test right off the bat.
As you probably noticed from my profile of No. 13-seeded Ohio last Sunday -- and the talk you've seen and heard this week -- the Bobcats appear to be a real problem for the Cavaliers. Virginia has been a popular upset pick this week. Still, the 'Hoos are favored by 7 points according to ESPN.com, though the game opened with UVa as a 10-point favorite.
The Bobcats are hot, having won nine of their past 10 games. Four of those wins came before a long COVID pause that they went on in early February. Before that pause, Ohio was more inconsistent, going 7-6 at the beginning of the season. Notably, though, during that first stretch the Bobcats played No. 8 Illinois very tough on the road, losing 77-75. Illinois is obviously a No. 1 seed in this tournament and one of the favorites to capture the crown, so that is a result that immediately got Virginia fans' attention.
Video: Check out myself and some of my Hoos Place colleagues talking about the tournament.
Ohio would not have gone dancing had it not won the MAC tournament, but it did so in dominating fashion as the No. 5 seed. The Bobcats scored at least 84 points in each game, beating Kent State by 22, No. 1 seed Toledo by 7 (but led wire to wire), and then crushed No. 2 seed Buffalo by 15 in the championship.
Kent State is a notable foe for the Bobcats because that is the one opponent they shared with Virginia this year. In the MAC tournament semifinals, Ohio defeated the Golden Flashes 85-63, but it did lose to them at home in the regular season, 89-79. UVa hosted Kent State in the fourth game of the season and needed overtime to win, 71-64. KSU finished 15-8 and 12-6 in the MAC, a bit better than Ohio's 9-5 conference mark.
You've no doubt seen discussion this week about Jason Preston, Ohio's 6-foot-4 junior point guard with moppy red hair. He stirs the drink for the Bobcats and is being talked about as a breakout star before the game has even been played and is a probable NBA player. He was hurt for four games during Ohio's bumpier stretch earlier in the season. In the MAC tournament, Preston averaged 22.7 points, 5.3 assists, and 5 rebounds while shooting 55.6% on 3-pointers (10 of 18). Overall, he's shot 40.8% beyond the arc this season. If Preston has an offensive weakness, it is his free throw shooting (58.5%, and the team isn't great there either at a touch over 70%), where he's one of those perplexing guys that should shoot much better there given his accuracy elsewhere. With Preston being a bit lengthy at 6-4, expect 6-foot-3 Reece Beekman to draw the first defensive assignment on him. Beekman's reputation as a solid 1-on-1 defender has grown throughout his freshman season, but slowing down Preston will be tough.
Preston is the Bobcats' main weapon but they are far from a one-man wrecking crew. Ohio has five players averaging at least 10 points, and two more average at least 5 points. Forward Dwight Wilson III is a 6-8 big man who averages 14.9 points and 7.5 rebounds. He does not shoot the 3-ball, but 6-8 forward Ben Vander Plas (the player whose dad played with Tony Bennett in college) does. Vander Plas averages 12.8 points and 5.7 rebounds and shoots 35.6% on 3-pointers. He's put up the most 3-pointers of any of the Bobcats (132), so Virginia must be ready for him to step out and shoot on the perimeter. Ben Roderick may be Ohio's most dangerous 3-point shooter given his volume and percentage. He's shooting 40.7%, just a tick below Preston, on way more attempts, 123, versus 76 for Preston. Lunden McDay has 71 attempts and is shooting 35.2%.
Photo: Preston had 31 points when Ohio almost shocked Illinois in late November.
More on Ohio: Check out StLouHoo's preview on Hoos Place.
Ohio is dangerous enough as is, but we know the situation may be trickier than usual because Virginia could be rusty coming off its own COVID pause. The last time we saw the Wahoos, Beekman hit a game-winning 3 against Syracuse in the ACC tournament quarterfinals March 10. Jubilation on Thursday night turned to disappointment Friday morning when it was revealed that a Cavalier tested positive after the game, knocking UVa out of the event. Spirits lifted some when everyone realized this did not eliminate the 'Hoos from NCAA tournament consideration. It did make preparation difficult, however. All UVa players had to quarantine through Thursday. They could only work out individually, but they did scout Ohio via Zoom. The Cavaliers did not practice together until Friday morning in Charlottesville. They then flew to Indiana in the early afternoon -- the last team to arrive at the tournament -- and took two COVID tests once they got there, one right away and one after midnight. The tests came back negative. Today, Virginia got in a shoot-around at Assembly Hall, the site of the game and home of the Indiana Hoosiers, in Bloomington, about an hour from Indianapolis. All of that has to have left the players rusty and feeling out of rhythm. Coach Tony Bennett called it "not ideal," but better than the alternative of not being able to play.
Ohio coach Jeff Boals said he heard a Virginia bench player tested positive at the ACC tourament and won't be available this weekend. That narrowed the list to Casey Morsell, Tomas Woldetensae, and Justin McKoy. Further internet speculation by others has seemed to point to McKoy being the player who is out tonight and Monday if Virginia advances. If that is true, I hope McKoy is OK, of course, but also, that would be a blow to the team. McKoy played strong down the stretch run of the season. He saw his minutes increase, and he became a force on the glass, and a source of energy and second-chance points.
Boals noted on Jerry Ratcliffe's podcast that Ohio played better once it came off its COVID pause, so he was not the right coach to ask about a possible drop-off in play for UVa. That said, this is a bit different situation since Virginia is not only coming off a pause, but has barely been able to practice as a team. UVa went on an extended pause one time this season in December. When it returned, it crushed William & Mary, but then got destroyed by overall NCAA No. 1 seed Gonzaga the day after Christmas (that happened to a lot of teams, though). The 'Hoos also missed out on hosting Virginia Tech in January due to COVID, but responded by going on a winning streak that included two of their best performances of the season, easy wins over Clemson and Syracuse.
With the lack of preparation, Virginia is going to have to rely on its raw talent to try to get the job done today -- and there is plenty of talent on the team. Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, Beekman, Morsell -- all of these guys were touted recruits And guys like Kihei Clark and Woldetensae have played above their perceived talent level at times -- big "duh" there on Clark. We know how Ohio is going to come out -- energized and ready. The Bobcats likely smell blood in the water given the Cavaliers' COVID pause and reputation for struggles early in the NCAA tournament. Virginia will need to do a good job of absorbing the Bobcats' early punches, then claw back and try to assert its will as the game wears on.
One commonality with Virginia's first-round NCAA tournament issues -- whether the too-close-for-comfort victories over Coastal Carolina, Belmont, UNC Wilmington, and Gardner-Webb, or the loss to UMBC -- is that the defense broke down often. The Wahoos ended up winning those games mostly with their offense -- that was especially true against Belmont and UNCW, both of which scored at least 67 points in their losses to UVa. Of course, UMBC put up 74 points, and Virginia's offense never got going in that historic defeat. But in the four wins, Virginia averaged 41.5 second-half points.
That is to say, and I want to tell the players and coaches this -- which I mentioned before the game against Gardner-Webb -- lean on the offense and let your horses run. Hauser, Huff, and Murphy in particular have done amazing things on offense this season. Let them do their thing, and don't get too bogged down slowing the game down and trying to stop Ohio. Of course, do your best on defense like always -- don't let up on that end of the court -- and hope the Pack Line does its thing, but don't be afraid to take the fight to the Bobcats on offense. Be aggressive. If we rely on our offense and talent, we might just be able to outscore Ohio. And hopefully any hole we fall in early due to rust isn't too deep.
Just go play. Perhaps arriving in Indy late will help the team -- the players will have less waiting around and less time to think. One thing favoring the Cavaliers in this tournament is they should be feeling less pressure. The pressure the team faced in that Gardner-Webb contest may never be matched again. A second straight loss to a No. 16 seed would have been devastating. But we know the team got over that mental hang-up and ended up not only defeating G-W, but went on to win the championship.
Photo: The pressure tonight is nothing compared with what Ty Jerome, De'Andre Hunter and those 'Hoos dealt with against Gardner-Webb. And how did Virginia win that game? I'd say with offense.
As a result, the pressure is off. We know lots of analysts have picked Ohio. Virginia is already being underrated as a No. 4 seed. Not much is expected of the 'Hoos. Plus, there has already been an upset in this tournament that won't be topped by UVa-Ohio -- No. 2 seed Ohio State's overtime loss to No. 15 seed Oral Roberts. And a No. 4 seed already lost: Purdue, which fell to No. 13 seed North Texas in OT. Oh and one more thing -- the ACC, already regarded as weaker than normal this season, went 1-4 on the first day of the tournament, with only Syracuse advancing while Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Clemson all lost.
Perhaps that final point could fill Virginia fans with fear. The ACC schedule might not have been the best preparation for March Madness. But I think it can be one more reason for the players to just focus on what they can control and go play. Leave it all on the court. The pressure if off. Everyone knew this would be a wacky tournament, a fitting conclusion to a wacky season. We already know Ohio is a worthy opponent that is most likely going to play well and play boldly. By this point, Virginia fans know the drill on these underdogs.
So although I am definitely worried about this game, I also know we as fans have been through worse, and the sports world won't be eyeballing us as much this year. The title has been won, and we are already a trendy pick to be upset, so the pressure is off.
So guys, just go have fun, play some hoops, do your best to shake off the rust, lean on the offense, play Virginia defense to the best of your ability, think of yourselves as the underdogs, and get after it.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Photo credits: Robert Willett/ACC pool photographer; USA Today; The Daily Progress
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