No. 1 Gonzaga (31-0) vs. No. 1 Baylor (27-2) in Indianapolis, 9:20 p.m. CBS
After the year we have all endured, it is nice to have a highly anticipated championship game to look forward to tonight. We can only hope it comes close to matching the thrilling heights of the Gonzaga-UCLA Final Four battle from Saturday night.
These teams have been the best college basketball has had to offer this year, and their regular-season matchup in December was a COVID casualty, so it only makes sense for the Bulldogs and Bears to finally and ultimately square off to determine the best team of the 2020-21 campaign. Gonzaga is the top seed in the tournament, and Baylor is the second-highest No. 1 seed, meaning this is the first time since the 2005 North Carolina-Illinois final that the top two teams in the tournament are meeting in the championship.
Of course, the Bulldogs, with a win, would not only be able to definitively lay claim to being the best team this season, but also to being one of the best teams in the history of the sport, as it looks to finish 32-0. Gonzaga would be the first men's team to go undefeated since Indiana went 36-0 in 1975-76. Four teams have since gone into the Big Dance undefeated, but only one even got to the title game. Only a few years after Bob Knight's Hoosiers, Larry Bird's Indiana State squad went all the way to the final before losing to Magic Johnson and Michigan State. The other three teams lost before the final: UNLV in 1991 lost to Duke in the Final Four, Wichita State in 2014 lost to Kentucky in the second round, and Kentucky in 2015 lost to Wisconsin in the Final Four.
A knock on Gonzaga has always been the weak conference it plays in, but it challenged itself as best it could this season with its nonconference slate, facing ranked teams in Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia and, like I said, it was scheduled to face Baylor as well. Only the Mountaineers were able to lose by less than 10 points (87-82). In fact, that was Gonzaga's only win by single digits until it eked out the 93-90 overtime victory versus UCLA in the Final Four. And in the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga did have an admirable challenger in BYU — the Cougars made the dance — which it defeated three times (once by 10), including in the conference tournament final. Plus, the Bulldogs clobbered each of their NCAA tournament opponents before UCLA: Norfolk State (43 points), Oklahoma (16), Creighton (18), and USC (19).
Gonzaga has an extremely efficient offense and scores 92 points per game. It does so while shooting 36.1% on 3s, not an incredibly great percentage, but the Bulldogs have the best 2-point percentage of any team in the nation at 63.9%. They are led by Fu Manchu mustache-wearing forward Drew Timme and his 19.2 ppg and 7.1 rpg. Forward Corey Kispert is at 18.8 ppg and is the Bulldogs' top 3-point threat at 44.5%. Star true freshman point guard Jalen Suggs, who hit the game-winning shot against UCLA, averages 14.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. He also averages 2 steals. Guard Joel Ayayi records 12.2 ppg and 7 rpg.
Baylor has had an incredible season in its own right, with only two losses: at Kansas (71-58), and in the Big 12 tournament semifinals to Oklahoma State (83-74). Both were quality teams that went to the tournament. In the dance, the Bears have been unstoppable, defeating Hartford, Wisconsin, Villanova, Arkansas, and Houston with relative ease, though the Razorbacks did claw nearly all the way back from a big deficit before losing by 9.
Baylor has a strong offense as well that puts up 84.4 ppg. The Bears are led by guard Jared Butler and his 16.6 ppg, 4.7 apg, and 3.3 rpg. Guard MaCio Teague posts 15.8 ppg and 4 rpg, and guard Davion Mitchell tallies 14 ppg and 5.5 apg. Its top rebounders are Mark Vital, a 250-pound beast of a man (6.5 rpg) and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (5.1 rpg), who has an awesome name. The Bears' offense overall is not as efficient as Gonzaga's, but they shoot better beyond the arc at a nation-leading 41.8%. Baylor has four guys sitting right around the 40% mark: Butler (41.5), Teague (38.9), Mitchell (45.3), guard Adam Flagler (42.2), and guard Matthew Mayer (40).
Both of these teams boast strong defenses, too, though Gonzaga's rates as the eighth-most efficient while Baylor’s is 27th. But the offenses steal the show, and I wouldn't be surprised if this game gets into the 80s.
Gonzaga was the media darling that couldn't do much in the tourney for many years. Because of this, I resented the Bulldogs, who usually seemed kinda cocky but got nowhere in March. But in 2017, they broke through to the Final Four for the first time, falling to North Carolina, 71-65 in the final. That was when they really earned my respect. I know that the little school from Spokane, Washington, has paid its dues over two decades, and tonight could be the night it breaks through for its first title.
Baylor, in its third Final Four (first since 1950) and second title game (1948), has never won a championship either and is a worthy opponent. One thing I wonder about with Gonzaga is this: What happens in a tight game? Saturday's matchup was pretty much the only contest Gonzaga was in all year that came down to the final seconds. And how much energy did the Zags expend in that epic semifinal? Perhaps Baylor will show it is more tested in the final minutes tonight. But the Bulldogs did come through versus the Bruins when it mattered, and Suggs' shot has me wondering if -- much like the Wahoos felt to us two years ago after the Purdue and Auburn games -- perhaps Gonzaga is a team of destiny and this is just meant to be its time.
The Bulldogs get it done in a great national championship game.
Gonzaga 82, Baylor 78
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