Uncertainty surrounds Armstrong's status as UVa gears up for big game with Notre Dame

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No. 9 Notre Dame at Virginia, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC

Tonight, Virginia returns from its bye week after getting spanked at BYU ... only to come home and see a motivated top-10 squad, Notre Dame, on the other sideline. Yippee.

The Cavaliers were surely licking their wounds over the open date after the Cougars scored nearly 70 points on 'em in Utah. Not only were the 'Hoos licking metaphorical wounds, but real wounds, too. Brennan Armstrong hurt something in his rib area, and no one really knows if he will suit up for this game or wait until, presumably, next week at Pittsburgh when the team dives back into ACC play. More on that whole thing down below.

The Fighting Irish should come in with high motivation. The chance is fairly slim, but they must win out to have any hope at making the College Football Playoff. Virginia is still seeking its first win over the Irish. In 2019, Bryce Perkins and the undefeated and No. 18 'Hoos led the No. 10 Irish at the half in South Bend but lost 35-20. And in 2015, a subpar Virginia team led No. 9 Notre Dame with under a minute remaining in Charlottesville before the Irish prevailed, 34-27. Now for some more details on tonight's matchup:

Notre Dame’s record: 8-1
Wins: at Florida State (in OT), home vs. Toledo (close), home vs. Purdue (Irish pulled away in fourth quarter), vs. No. 18 Wisconsin (41-13 blowout in Chicago, though the Badgers actually took a 13-10 lead very early in the fourth quarter; yes, Notre Dame put up 31 points after that), at Virginia Tech (close), home vs. USC (comfortable), home vs. North Carolina (Irish pull away in third and fourth quarters), home vs. Navy (blowout)
Loss: home vs. No. 7 Cincinnati (Cincy led 17-0 at half; Irish closed to within 17-13 before Bearcats put game away with a late TD)
Coach: Brian Kelly (12th year, 89-40, 260-97-2 career*); * = includes vacated wins from 2012 and 2013 seasons
Series record: Notre Dame leads, 3-0
Last meeting: Sept. 28, 2019; Notre Dame won, 35-20
Line: Notre Dame by 5.5 (as of Friday at noon)
Over/under: 64

Notre Dame offense: Like BYU, the Fighting Irish don’t belong to a conference, so I’ve gathered their rankings according to national statistics. Notre Dame is tied for 34th in scoring at 32.8 points per game. It ranks 70th in total offense, 38th in passing offense, and 98th in rushing offense. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is Notre Dame’s primary quarterback. He’s completed 65.4% of his passes for 1,879 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He’s been sacked 26 times, and Notre Dame has given up 28 in total, which is tied for 117th worst in the country. But its pass protection has gotten better recently. After FSU, Toledo, Purdue, and Wisconsin all had at least four sacks, none of the Irish’s past five opponents have had more than two. Notre Dame sometimes brings in freshman QB Tyler Buchner in the red zone. He does not pass the ball much. He’s rushed for 203 yards and two scores. RB Kyren Williams leads the team with 802 yards (5 yards per carry) and nine TDs. He’s also the Irish’s second-leading pass catcher with 34 receptions and three receiving TDs. Tight end Michael Mayer, only a sophomore, paces the Irish with 45 catches for 493 yards and three TDs as one of the best TEs in the country. WR Kevin Austin leads the Irish with five receiving TDs and a 17.1 yards-per-catch average on 31 grabs.

Notre Dame defense: The Irish are tied for 44th nationally in scoring defense at 22.4 ppg. They rank 60th in total defense, 65th in passing defense, and 54th in rushing defense. Linebacker JD Bertrand leads the unit with 79 tackles (five for losses), nearly doubling the 42 of DL Isaiah Foskey, who has the second most on the team. Foskey, though, leads with 10.5 tackles for losses and also is first with nine sacks and three forced fumbles. Notre Dame is tied for 26th with 2.78 sacks per game. Safety Kyle Hamilton, one of the top prospects in the 2022 NFL draft, has three interceptions to lead the team, but he is out with an injury he suffered against USC in October. Cornerback Cam Hart and safety DJ Brown each have two picks. Notre Dame is tied for 21st with a plus-6 turnover margin.

Notre Dame special teams: Jonathan Doerer has made 13 of his 17 field goals with a long of 51 yards. Williams must not have enough punt returns to qualify as a national leader (10 returns with an average of 11.8 yards), but he appears to have the seventh-best average in the country. Same for kick returner Chris Tyree (out of Richmond-area Thomas Dale High School): He must not have enough returns to qualify, but his average of 29.8 yards would place him in the top 10. He has one return for a TD, against Wisconsin, to launch the Irish’s 31-point fourth quarter.

Thoughts and pick: It goes without saying (and then people always say whatever they are thinking anyway), but Armstrong’s health is the major factor in deciding whether Virginia has oh, I don’t know, maybe a 10%-20% chance to upset the Fighting Irish versus a 1% chance.

The worst fear of Virginia fans seems to have subsided. It doesn’t sound as if Armstrong is going to miss the rest of the season with broken ribs. As he came off the field at BYU, Armstrong said that he broke his ribs, but we don’t even know if that is what he really did. If he were out for the rest of the season, I think Bronco Mendenhall would’ve said so, likely not too long after the BYU game. But he has said no such thing, and this week he said he is planning on Armstrong being the team’s QB. He also said, though, that he probably won’t know until kickoff when everyone looks down at the field to see who the QB will be. It does sound as if Armstrong hasn’t been practicing. But Mendenhall quipped, “Brennan has earned every opportunity to play, even if he just looks out over the field from the balcony.”

Virginia also put out a little video this week highlighting Armstrong’s out-of-nowhere Heisman campaign, so that is a big clue that he should be back at some point.
There is a legitimate question whether he should play in this game, though, when the Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech contests to follow will decide how the ACC Coastal race plays out. Virginia can lose to Notre Dame by 50, but if it beats Pitt and VT, it wins the Coastal. So if Armstrong needs to sit out to be closer to 100% for those final two matchups, and if there is a chance he can reinjure himself or make it worse (and you know Notre Dame will get some sacks), better to have him sit out this game and save him for, hopefully, the Panthers and Hokies. You know Armstrong is going to want to play. It is his big chance in prime time against a big-name opponent to show his best stuff as a darkhorse Heisman contender, but the decision likely won’t be only up to him.

The risk-reward dynamic of having the best chance to upset Notre Dame and trying to make sure we have Armstrong as healthy as possible for Pitt and VT must be balanced. With that said, what kind of chance does Virginia have to pull the upset, even with Armstrong?

Well, if the defense that went to BYU shows up, not much. If it is the D that shut out Duke, gave Georgia Tech a tough time for about a half or so, and held Louisville's Malik Cunningham mostly in check ... well, still not a great chance, but a better shot. Notre Dame has been in close games against some not-so-great teams: namely, FSU and Toledo, though the Seminoles have played somewhat better recently. Virginia Tech should've beaten the Irish, too. The Hokies were up 29-21 with 3:55 remaining in the contest before losing 32-29.

If Armstrong plays, we know the 'Hoos do have the offense to stick around. And if they can stick around into the fourth quarter, anything can happen. What we need is for the defense to make a couple stops just to give the offense an opening and a chance. The offense just needs a seat at the table come winning time. We saw what happened at Louisville when the offense gets a seat at the table. One of the things the defense did well at Louisville that I loved was dealing with sudden change. Armstrong threw two interceptions in that game in Virginia territory. On both occasions, the defense came back out and forced the Cards into three-and-outs and field goals. That sort of defense played a major, major part in the victory. At BYU, that didn’t happen. The Cougars scored three TDs after the Cavaliers’ three turnovers. 

Speaking of turnovers, how about a turnover from the D? They have been in such short supply this season. The 'Hoos rank tied for 97th nationally with a minus-3 turnover margin, and they are tied for 99th with 10 turnovers forced.

I think the defense will step up and play better -- how can it not? It is easy to assume the worst after a performance like the one against BYU, but remember, the D slowly got better after giving up 59 points to North Carolina by holding Wake Forest to 37 points, then Miami to 28, and then it had the acceptable performance against Louisville.

I think the team and the defense will come to play. The defense may even surprise us a bit. The crowd will be into the game. But I do not think it will be enough, even if Armstrong plays. At some point in the second half, Notre Dame will put the game away, as it has done many other times in 2021.

Notre Dame 41, Virginia 28 (with Armstrong)

Now, if Armstrong does not play, I don't think it will be that close. Backup true freshman QB Jay Woolfork will have an invaluable learning experience and do some nice things if he has to start, but the offense will not be as successful, though I see the defense actually playing a bit better, or maybe Notre Dame just won't have to step on the gas as often in the second half. So I'll make a prediction without Armstrong playing as well, since that is a real possibility.

Notre Dame 37, Virginia 13 (without Armstrong)

Picks record: 5-4

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