Virginia basketball tips off 2021-22 season

Navy at No. 25 Virginia, 9 p.m. Tuesday, ACC Network

The college basketball season starts anew tonight all across the country, and the Cavaliers host Navy at John Paul Jones Arena in a late-night tip-off. For the first time since March 2020, a large crowd will be allowed in JPJ for a sporting event, so it should make for a lively atmosphere despite the relatively unexciting first opponent.

But the Midshipmen have a veteran team and were picked to finish third in the Patriot League after coming off a 15-3 season in 2021-22 that saw them take the Patriot League regular-season title. Virginia has plenty of question marks, so it wouldn't be surprising if Navy sticks around, especially in the first half. These teams met two years ago in Charlottesville, and UVa struggled a bit in a 65-56 victory.

I want to take a look at some of the storylines for the Wahoos going into this new campaign. But first, here's a reminder of the scholarship players on the roster this year, with 2020-21 stats if applicable, from most seniority to least.

• Senior guard Kihei Clark (9.5 ppg, 2 rpg, 4.5 apg)
• Senior guard Kody Stattmann (3.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg)
• Senior forward Jayden Gardner (18.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.4 apg)
• Redshirt junior center Francisco Caffaro (1.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg)
• Junior guard Armaan Franklin (11.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.2 spg)
• Redshirt sophomore forward Kadin Shedrick (2.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg)
• Sophomore guard Reece Beekman (4.7, 2.8 rpg, 3 apg, 1.2 spg)
• Sophomore guard Carson McCorkle (0.6 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.5 apg)
• Freshman guard Taine Murray
• Freshman forward Igor Milicic Jr.

Now on to those storylines, laid out in the form of a Q&A:

Who are the expected starters?

Clark, Beekman, Franklin, Gardner, and Shedrick. It would be fairly surprising at this point to see any other five out there when the game tips off against Navy, provided there aren't any injuries, illnesses, or suspensions. During the Blue-White Scrimmage in late October, those five were on one of the teams together. (check out highlights below)

How well will the Beekman-Clark pairing work?

Much has been made of the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of this combo last season. We were all hoping that it was going to work as well as having Ty Jerome and Clark on the floor together in the later stages of Virginia's national championship run. Instead, the offense just got clogged at times with Beekman and Clark unable to strike fear into the hearts of teams on the offensive end. Once teams dared Beekman and Clark to shoot or attack and stayed at home on our shooters, the offense bogged down. But there is hope this year that changes have been made, and these two can work more effectively together. The offense is surely going to look a bit different with Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, and Trey Murphy III having departed. With an offseason to tinker, coach Tony Bennett and his staff have perhaps been able to refine some aspects of the offense. And the early word is that Beekman is ready to take a step up as both a leader and as a lead guard this year. He looked uncomfortable last year without the ball in his hands. If he takes control and is the main distributor on the team, then I think the offense will work better. Clark may have to defer to Beekman, but I think he is willing to do that.

How will the two transfers fit in?

There are great expectations for both Gardner, the transfer from East Carolina, and Franklin, the transfer from Indiana. Both are expected to be in the starting lineup tonight. Gardner is a bit short at 6-foot-6, but he makes up for it with a stout body. Hopefully, he is able to use that body to be an effective rebounder at the ACC level. He was the top scorer on a bad ECU team for three years and didn't just show up against nobody opponents: Last year, Gardner collected 21 points and 15 rebounds against Houston as the Pirates upset the Cougars, who went on to make the Final Four. Gardner will probably mostly play around the paint and collect points off rebounds, though he does have a handful of 3-point tries in his career, and he also does have a decent jump shot and the ability to drive into the paint. Gardner is going to be a hard worker and a willing defender, though of course he is new to the Pack Line.

Jayden Gardner makes his way around Igor Milicic Jr. during the Blue-White Scrimmage. Gardner averaged 18 points and 8.7 boards over three seasons at ECU. (Matt Riley/UVa Athletics)

Franklin is an athletic and attacking guard who greatly improved his 3-point shot at Indiana from his first to his second year (26.6% to 42.4%). Virginia obviously hopes he continues to shoot that well in Charlottesville. I am a little concerned about regression to the mean on his shot, but let's just see what develops. Perhaps offensively he will be best utilized as someone who attacks the rim. Defensively, he gets his hands on a lot of balls and is disruptive. He also played in a Pack Line system with the Hoosiers, so he is familiar with it, and it should give him a head start. With Beekman (6-3) and Clark (5-10) already on the court as shorter defenders, I wonder if Franklin at just 6-4 will be giving up some height to who he guards. Plenty of teams go small these days, though, so perhaps that won't be a big disadvantage for Franklin.

Armaan Franklin shoots over Igor Milicic Jr. during the scrimmage. Franklin was the second-leading scorer for Indiana last season. (Matt Riley/UVa Athletics)

Who can make 3-point shots?

It's a good question. Virginia had four excellent 3-point shooters leave the team in Hauser, Huff, Murphy, and Tomas Woldetensae, all near or above 40% last season. Clark is a 35% career 3-point shooter and has been working on a quicker release. Beekman made just 24.3% of his triples last season, but he's been working on his form, too, so hopefully he can land somewhere above the 30% mark this year. Like I said, Franklin was above 40% for Indiana in 2020-21, but I'm worried about him maintaining that level of accuracy, given that he has been much lower before. Justin Anderson is a guy who got hot at Virginia his junior year but never seemed to shoot that well again in his professional career.

Off the bench, there's the Aussie, Stattmann -- we've always heard about his nice shot, but it hasn't translated to the American college game yet. He's only at 26.1% for his career, and he played in just four games last year, with an illness of some sort taking most of the season away from him. McCorkle came to Virginia with his 3-point shot being his best skill set, but he barely saw the floor last season. Perhaps he can be someone to step up, but it could depend on how his all-around game has improved. There are questions as to how much he will even be on the floor. Murray is a talented and nice-sized guard who has a great shot as well. But he is a true freshman from New Zealand, so he may need time to get his feet under him. Milicic, of Croatia, is a guy who may be able to stretch the floor as a tall shooter, but he does not come in with the same shooting skills as Murray, and he did not play at quite the same international level as Murray, so Milicic's learning curve may be steeper than Murray's. And Milicic will need to put on weight to play more of a power forward position in the ACC.

Ideally, Beekman and Clark can take steps forward with their shots, Franklin can at least be close to kissing the 40% mark again, and maybe we can get an unexpected contribution in 3-point shooting from one or two other players. It's probably going to be unrealistic to expect the team to shoot as well as last season from beyond the arc (37.5%, a top-30 stat nationally), but hopefully the 'Hoos don't fall to the depths of 2019-20 (30.3%).

Can the defense get tougher?

The offense could be a bit better than expected or a bit worse than expected. But one thing that needs to change from last season is that Virginia must get back to playing dominant defense. Last year's performance was fine for most teams but not up to the standard Virginia has set. It finished ranked 36th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive rankings, the first time since 2012-13 it was outside the top 10. It was Virginia’s worst defensive rating since the 2010-11 season, Bennett’s second year. Also, Virginia finished outside the top 100 nationally in rebounding margin at plus-2.

Luckily, Virginia may have the pieces to once again possess a top-10 defense. Gardner is going to bring a physical edge to the team and to the Pack Line. I am sure Bennett was intentional in targeting someone like Gardner and not necessarily feeling like he had to get a 3-point shooter. Gardner will be a tone-setter. And then out front, Virginia has three guys that are all known as being good to great on-ball defenders in Beekman, Clark, and Franklin. And then deep in the paint, Shedrick, who has gained weight and is almost 7 feet tall, is expected to at least begin to develop a strong defensive game. He's now in his third year in the system, and his backup, Caffaro, who is listed at 7-1, is in his fourth year. Stattmann, if he plays a decent amount, is another guy who is in his fourth year, so he knows the defense as well, and his length can bother opponents. With two transfers expected to take on big roles, it is tough to expect this defense to be one of the best Bennett has fielded, but I think we can fairly safely expect it to be better than last season.

Can Shedrick make a jump?

I mentioned him above regarding defense, and I hope he steps up offensively as well. Last year as a redshirt freshman, I thought Shedrick really showed promising flashes against St. Francis of Pa. (12 points and eight rebounds) and William and Mary (10 points, seven rebounds). I liked his bounce and aggression on the offensive end. I saw signs that he enjoys battling down low. But then he came down with some sort of illness and didn't play for any long stretches after the Gonzaga game. With an added 15 pounds and expected to be healthier, Shedrick is poised to take a big jump, and the Cavaliers are going to need that from him.

Class of 2022 recruiting update

I wanted to hit on recruiting for next season because I failed to mention a couple of players that signed on to play for the 'Hoos late in the summer. The class includes Isaac McKneely, who I did write about in February, and Leon Bond also joined the squad in August.

The two players that I had not included here yet are 6-10 four-star power forward Isaac Traudt of Nebraska, who committed in late August, and 6-6 four-star small forward Ryan Dunn of New York, who joined in mid-September. Traudt in particular was a big recruiting win for Virginia and Bennett, who beat out North Carolina, Michigan State, and Nebraska for Traudt, a consensus top-50 player who was on the radar of Gonzaga as well. Traudt was going to take a trip to Gonzaga but canceled it and committed to UVa instead. Throughout Traudt's recruiting process, McKneely openly advocated for Traudt to join the 'Hoos, and the hashtag #IsaacSquared became popular on social media among Virginia fans, who ultimately got their wish.

Dunn was not on the national recruiting radar because of his lack of exposure that came from the pandemic. That changed for him in June, when coaches could go watch him play. He quickly climbed up the national rankings and is just outside the top 100 now. Dunn chose Virginia over Pittsburgh and Minnesota.

To see detailed breakdowns of Traudt and Dunn, I recommend clicking on each of their names and checking out what StLouHoo has to say at Hoos Place. He also always does a nice job with previews. Here's what he has to say specifically about tonight's opener against Navy.

And with that, let the games begin!