No. 1 Virginia (31-3) vs. No. 12 Oregon (25-12),
Louisville, Ky., about 9:59 p.m., TBS
Louisville, Ky., about 9:59 p.m., TBS
Virginia jumped out to a 7-0 lead, then briefly fell behind, but quickly built a double-digit advantage to start the second half against Oklahoma on Sunday to sail to its third Sweet 16 berth in six years with a 63-51 victory.
In my estimation, Virginia played about a C+ game on offense, but should receive a solid A or A- on defense and effort. In the end, that's all that was needed to get past the Sooners, who entered the matchup with 13 losses. As they did against Gardner-Webb, Virginia showed it was simply the better team and played like it for the majority of the game. To read more of my recap of the game, check out
the full version at HoosPlace.com. Also, on our latest podcast, hear us break down the victory and look ahead to the next opponent, Oregon.
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| Mamadi Diakite nearly had a double-double against Oklahoma, recording 14 points and nine rebounds. |
Virginia has two double-digit wins in the dance, but no one is mistaking either one as being one of the better outings of the season. The Cavaliers are going to need to play better if they hope to keep advancing. Oregon is another team with more than 10 losses, but it is certainly dangerous. Here's a closer look at the Ducks:
Record: 25-12, 10-8 Pac-12, tied for fourth
Coach: Dana Altman; 30th year, 641-342; ninth year at Oregon, 235-95
Scorers in double figures: Junior 6-foot-2 guard Payton Pritchard (13), freshman 6-9 forward Louis King (12.9), senior 6-9 forward Paul White (10.6)
Leading rebounders: King (5.4), sophomore 6-9 forward Kenny Wooten (4.8), White (3.8), Pritchard (3.8), freshman 6-9 forward Francis Okoro (3.3), senior 6-4 guard Ehab Amin (3.1)
Assist leaders: Pritchard (4.6), freshman 6-5 guard Will Richardson (2.5), White (1.5)
Notable: Freshman 7-2 center Bol Bol, the son of former 7-7 NBA star Manute Bol, hurt his foot at the beginning of the season and only played in nine games. He was a big loss, as he was averaging 21 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks. Minus Bol, Oregon has nine players averaging double-figure minutes. Sophomore 6-4 guard Victor Bailey Jr. posts 7.4 rebounds and 2 rebounds per game. Wooten (6.5 ppg), Richardson (6.2), and Amin (5.8) are solid scorers as well. Four players come up with at least one steal per game: Pritchard (1.8), Amin (1.5), Richardson (1.2), King (0.9). Wooten averages 2.2 blocks.
Win streak: 10; beat No. 5-seeded Wisconsin, 72-54, in first round, and defeated No. 13-seeded UC Irvine, 73-54 in second round
Best win: The Ducks own one win over a team that was ranked at the time they beat them: No. 15 Syracuse, 80-65, on Nov. 16 in New York. Otherwise, their best victories are over Wisconsin in the first round of the tournament and Washington, 68-48, in the Pac-12 championship. Had the Ducks not downed the Huskies, they likely were not going to get an at-large tourney berth.
Worst win: Florida A&M, a 12-19 team from the MEAC; the Ducks were only able to win at home by a final of 71-64
Other wins: Portland State, Eastern Washington, Green Bay, Omaha, San Diego, Boise State (twice), Arizona (twice), USC (home), Washington State (three times), Utah (twice), Cal, Stanford, Arizona
State (twice), Washington (road), Stanford
Best loss: At unranked Houston, 65-61, on Dec. 2. Now we know how good the Cougars are, sitting at 33-3 as the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region as they get ready to battle No. 2-seeded Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
Worst loss: Texas Southern at home, 89-84, right before the loss to Houston. The Tigers went 23-13 and 14-4 in the lowly SWAC. Not a good home loss for a Power Five school.
Other losses: Iowa, Oregon State (twice), Baylor, UCLA (twice), Washington (home), Arizona State (road), Colorado, USC (road)
Common opponents with UVa: Syracuse (15-point win; Virginia 26-point victory)
(Note: Some of the below numbers are not updated through the Ducks' two NCAA tournament contests)
What Oregon does well: Defense has been Oregon's calling card in 2018-19. The Ducks are giving up 62.5 ppg (12th) and shooting percentages of 40.2 from the field (22nd) and 29.1 on 3s (sixth). They pick opponents' pockets 7.7 times per game (36th), force them into 13.84 turnovers per game (115th), and block 4.4 shots per game (53rd). Oregon takes good care of the ball, averaging just 11.8 turnovers per game (74th), and it has a 1.14 turnover-assist ratio (100th). As you may have noticed above, Oregon has a pretty tall team, but that isn't necessarily reflected in the rebounding numbers, with the Ducks possessing a still good but not great +1.7 rebound margin per game (124th).
What Oregon doesn't do well: Similar to Oklahoma, Oregon has struggled offensively. The Ducks put up 70.5 ppg (238th) while shooting 45.2 percent on field goals (126th), 35.1 percent from beyond the arc (136th), and 72.1 percent from the charity stripe (127th). They don't move the ball that well, averaging just 13.3 assists (182nd). Like Virginia and Oklahoma, Oregon doesn't get to the line all that often, with 597 attempts (207th). Unlike UVa, Oregon has piled up lots of fouls while playing good defense. The Ducks have committed 651 (tied, 308th).
Oregon has a No. 12 seed attached to it, but it is a hot Power Five team, and needs to be treated more like a No. 4 seed at least, which UVa would be facing right now had the region went all chalk. Any team that has won 10 games in a row is dangerous, one from a major conference even more so. The Ducks will be full of confidence.
Against UC Irvine, Oregon led, 35-23 at the half, but went about nine minutes without scoring from the end of the first half until 12:31 remained in the game. The Anteaters took a small, 37-35 lead, but then the Ducks ended the contest on a 38-17 run to win comfortably. Oregon made an incredible 13 of its 25 3-pointers and shot 45.8 percent overall and 6 of 8 at the line. Pritchard led the way with 18 points and seven assists, King recorded 16 points and four boards, and Amin came off the bench and played 26 minutes, tallying 12 points, six rebounds, three steals, two assists, and hit all four of his attempts from downtown. Wooten rounded out Oregon's double-digit scorers with 11 points, eight boards, and seven blocks.
Despite losing Bol, Oregon has come together nicely over the latter part of the season. The 10-game winning streak has boasted better numbers: The Ducks shot above 40 percent from beyond the arc four times in the past 10 games (40 percent of the time) compared to just five times in their first 27 games (18.5 percent). And in their past three win-or-go-home games (Pac-12 title game and first two rounds of the Big Dance), they're shooting 48.1 percent from deep. They do take more 3s than Oklahoma, but still not a ton, with 775 attempts (tied, 115th). Their sharpest shooters are Bailey (39.8 percent on 118 attempts), King (37.9 on 145 attempts), White (37.8 on 143 attempts), Pritchard (33.3 percent on 192 attempts), and Amin (31.3 on 99 attempts). Some other good numbers in the win streak compared to the rest of the season: average rebound margin of +4 vs. +1.56 and turnover margin of +4.4 vs. +1.63.
I am glad that Oregon's best 3-point shooter, Bailey, is just 6-4, and I'm also happy that the player that takes the most deep shots, Pritchard, is closer to 30 percent than 40 percent. Hopefully, UVa can contain Bailey with length, and Pritchard's inefficiency doesn't usually bode well for a UVa foe.
However, King and White, like Jay Huff, are taller, and should they get hot, that could pose a problem.
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| Louis King, a five-star recruit, is a 6-foot-9 freshman forward and one of several Ducks that could bother Virginia with length. |
Overall, Oregon's height could be an issue, with four players in the regular rotation that are at least 6-9. This could be a good game for Jack Salt (just seven combined minutes in the first two tournament games) and Huff to use their length, and Braxton Key's physical play, rebounding, and shot-blocking will be needed. And of course De'Andre Hunter, named the ACC defensive player of the year, will be important as well on defense. Like against FSU, another huge team, it will be interesting to see how much Kihei Clark plays, and if Oregon tries to attack him.
On offense, Virginia will go up against Oregon's matchup zone. In the first half against Syracuse's 2-3 zone, the Cavaliers forced some passes into tight windows, leading to turnovers and a halftime edge on the scoreboard for the Orange. The first half of this game will probably be low-scoring and possibly sloppy, as both offenses feel out the opposing strong defenses. Hopefully, Virginia remains patient and doesn't force the issue as it tries to best figure out how to attack the zone. Oregon has been locked in on defense during its win streak, holding eight of its past 10 opponents to fewer than 55 points.
One option will be to spread the zone out and then make a bunch of 3s, though sinking 18 like the 'Hoos did against 'Cuse is probably unrealistic. But Virginia will need to shoot better than its 14-for-47 performance -- 29.8 percent -- the past two games to have its best chance to survive. It would be great if Kyle Guy could get on track. The junior has made just 1 of his 15 attempts in the dance and was 0 for 10 against Oklahoma. During a five-game stretch at the end of the regular season, Guy shot
an insane 63.4 percent from beyond the arc (26 of 41). Since then, though, he's just 3 of 20 (15 percent). Obviously, if he can knock down some bombs, that would help loosen up the zone. Interestingly, Guy is 0 for 8 in his career at Louisville's KFC Yum! Center on 3s. Let's hope he's set to snap out of his slump (on the other hand, Hunter went for 26 at Louisville this season).
If Virginia remains off target from deep, it will need to attack the zone with crisp passes and strong cuts through the middle of the defense. If Virginia goes guard-heavy to try to get quicker than Oregon and puts lots of shooters on the floor, then Salt might not see much time. Huff seems like a great choice in that instance with not only his length, but his scoring ability. Meanwhile, UVa has really received a boost from Mamadi Diakite, who has posted 31 points and 18 rebounds through the first two tournament games. His progress gives Virginia another weapon it can use to attack on offense.
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| An actual duck got some attention for its "hotness" in the fall when it was spotted in Central Park in New York City. But on Thursday, the Cavaliers have to deal with hot Ducks of a different sort. |
If Virginia remains off target from deep, it will need to attack the zone with crisp passes and strong cuts through the middle of the defense. If Virginia goes guard-heavy to try to get quicker than Oregon and puts lots of shooters on the floor, then Salt might not see much time. Huff seems like a great choice in that instance with not only his length, but his scoring ability. Meanwhile, UVa has really received a boost from Mamadi Diakite, who has posted 31 points and 18 rebounds through the first two tournament games. His progress gives Virginia another weapon it can use to attack on offense.
Oregon is a good team that took its lumps early but is playing its best ball when it needs to be. Altman has gotten the Ducks to the Final Four, just two seasons ago, so he knows what he's doing. Oregon creates some problems for Virginia with its size, defense, and if it remains hot from 3-point land. I think the Wahoos are in for a tough, tough battle, and they'll need to play a bit better than they did against Oklahoma to feel comfortable. UVa is the better team, though, and if it plays a B+ game or better, I like it to advance to its second Elite Eight in four years.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
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