Notre Dame at Virginia, 9 p.m. ESPN2
The Wahoos fell agonizingly short of scoring their biggest victory of the season Saturday. Now they return home to face a tricky Fighting Irish squad that has also had its fair share of tight setbacks.
Notre Dame is probably playing a bit better than some people expected and is a dangerous opponent. That's partly because the upside to beating the Irish isn't as high as the upside would've been in beating Louisville, and a home loss to them would be more damaging than the road loss to the Cardinals. Still, they are a quality opponent, floating not too far below the NCAA tournament bubble. On the one hand, this is one it feels like the Cavaliers have to have, because the Irish are not Duke, Louisville, or Florida State. They are in the group of landmines that represent the other part of the ACC outside of the top three. But comparing Notre Dame to say, a Wake Forest, just isn't right.
A loss wouldn't be THAT bad. But come on 'Hoos, let's get this one. Here's more on the Fighting Irish:
Record: 15-8, 6-6
Coach: Mike Brey, 20th year at Notre Dame, 427-213; 25th year overall, 526-265
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-9 senior forward John Mooney (16.5), 6-3 senior guard TJ Gibbs (14.1), 6-3 sophomore guard Prentiss Hubb (11.8), 6-6 sophomore guard Dane Goodwin (11.5)
Leading rebounders: Mooney (13), 6-11 senior forward Juwan Durham (5.3), 6-10 sophomore forward Nate Laszewski (4.7), Goodwin (3.6)
Assist leaders: Hubb (4.6), 6-6 senior guard Rex Pflueger (3.7), Gibbs (3.4), Mooney (2)
Notable: Notre Dame only has seven players averaging double-figure minutes after guard Robby Carmody was lost to an ACL injury in December. Durham (7.8 ppg), Laszewski (7), Pflueger (5.8)
are the other main contributors. Pflueger (1.3 steals per game), Mooney (1.2), Gibbs (0.9) and Hubb (0.8) are the best thieves. Durham blocks 2.3 shots per game, and Mooney 0.7.
Best win: At Syracuse, 88-87. UVa went 1-1 against the Orange, which is sitting at 14-9 and 7-5.
Worst win: The Irish have a pair of back-to-back home wins that look less than stellar: 64-62 over Toledo, which is 11-13; and 63-53 over Presbyterian, which is 9-16
Other wins: Robert Morris, Howard, Marshall, Fairleigh Dickinson, UCLA, Detroit, Alabama A&M, Georgia Tech (home and away), Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Clemson
Best loss: At No. 5 Florida State, 85-84
Worst loss: Even though North Carolina was ranked No. 9 at the time, Notre Dame's 11-point loss at the Dean Dome to open the season hasn't aged well, given the Tar Heels' struggles.
Other losses: Maryland, Boston College, Indiana, N.C. State, Louisville , Syracuse (home)
What Notre Dame does well: The Fighting Irish are fairly strong on offense, averaging 76.2 points (57th nationally) while shooting 35.1 percent on 3-pointers (85th) and 74.5 percent at the line (63rd).
What Notre Dame doesn't do well: Defense is a bit of a weak point, with the team giving up 68.3 ppg (150th) and a 3-point shooting percentage of 34 percent (235th), so hopefully Tomas Woldetensae and whoever wants to join in can enjoy some long-range success. Notre Dame is stingier overall from the field, 41 percent (83rd).
Notre Dame is another team Virginia has dominated recently that will be inspired to knock off the Wahoos now that they are working through a down year. And though the Cavaliers have defeated the Fighting Irish in eight of nine matchups since they joined the ACC, some of the games have been closer than they probably should have been. Last year, Notre Dame was quite bad, finishing last in the ACC. UVa clobbered the Irish in South Bend, 82-55, but in Charlottesville, Notre Dame gave UVa fits and the margin of victory was much smaller, 60-54. Two seasons ago, Virginia faced Notre Dame on senior night as the No. 1 team in the nation, and an NIT-bound Irish team fought tooth and nail before falling, 62-57.
After the NIT season of 2017-18 and a way subpar 2018-19, the experienced Brey and Notre Dame are trying to work themselves back into the NCAA tournament conversation. Though the Irish are nowhere to be found on ESPN's latest bracket -- not even checking into one of the groups just outside the bracket -- they come in 51 in the NCAA's latest NET ranking, one spot ahead of UVa. NET is the 2-year-old replacement for RPI the tournament selection committee is relying on to help itself sort out who's who come March.
That tells me this Notre Dame team is dangerous. Don't let the so-so record fool you. Six of Notre Dame's eight losses -- the most recent six -- are by single digits. The Irish could easily be 17-6, 8-4, and safely in fourth place in the ACC, no doubt with a seat at the NCAA tournament table. But Virginia knows all about close losses and could also obviously sport a much better record if a couple of games had swung differently. This will likely be another close game in a season full of them.
Additionally, the Fighting Irish have won their past four games since Brey was fined after going on a rant against ACC officiating following their one-point loss at Florida State. None of those victories has come against the top of the ACC (Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Clemson), but they are wins nevertheless, and Notre Dame is probably feeling pretty good about itself as it arrives at JPJ.
One thing that jumps out at me about the Fighting Irish is their experience. They are a veteran team looking to get the program back to where it was, and it makes sense they are making strides this season. An older team seems to take care of the ball well, and Notre Dame is no exception, ranking second in turnovers per game (9.9 per game; Virginia Tech is first at 9.8).
I mentioned the Irish's 3-point shooting. Their best marksmen are Gibbs (41.9 percent), Goodwin (38.8), Hubb (34.6), Pflueger (33.8), Mooney (32.8), and Laszewski (31.5). Mooney is just good enough to keep Virginia honest when guarding him, and that's an issue since he is 6-9 and can draw the Cavaliers' big men away from the basket. Mamadi Diakite and whoever else draws the Mooney assignment will have their hands full, and it'll be a team effort.
I seriously doubt Virginia is going to hit 11 3s again in a game, and it wouldn't surprise me if fans don't see 73 again this season, but the Cavaliers should continue to have some offensive success against the Irish. It's not like they have to really light up the scoreboard to be successful. Getting into the 60s will more often than not result in a win -- it just didn't Saturday against a Final Four quality squad. Rebounding could be easier, too, than it was against Louisville. Notre Dame's averaging rebounding margin is ... well, there isn't one. The Irish grab about the same number of rebounds as their opponent each game, which slots them close to 200th.
I'm picking Virginia, but this was a tough pick. I think the Irish are a bit better than their record. It's going to come down to executing at the end of the game, probably, and if nothing else, the Wahoos have a lot of experience in those situations this season. But so do the Irish.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
The Wahoos fell agonizingly short of scoring their biggest victory of the season Saturday. Now they return home to face a tricky Fighting Irish squad that has also had its fair share of tight setbacks.
Notre Dame is probably playing a bit better than some people expected and is a dangerous opponent. That's partly because the upside to beating the Irish isn't as high as the upside would've been in beating Louisville, and a home loss to them would be more damaging than the road loss to the Cardinals. Still, they are a quality opponent, floating not too far below the NCAA tournament bubble. On the one hand, this is one it feels like the Cavaliers have to have, because the Irish are not Duke, Louisville, or Florida State. They are in the group of landmines that represent the other part of the ACC outside of the top three. But comparing Notre Dame to say, a Wake Forest, just isn't right.
A loss wouldn't be THAT bad. But come on 'Hoos, let's get this one. Here's more on the Fighting Irish:
Record: 15-8, 6-6
Coach: Mike Brey, 20th year at Notre Dame, 427-213; 25th year overall, 526-265
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-9 senior forward John Mooney (16.5), 6-3 senior guard TJ Gibbs (14.1), 6-3 sophomore guard Prentiss Hubb (11.8), 6-6 sophomore guard Dane Goodwin (11.5)
Leading rebounders: Mooney (13), 6-11 senior forward Juwan Durham (5.3), 6-10 sophomore forward Nate Laszewski (4.7), Goodwin (3.6)
Assist leaders: Hubb (4.6), 6-6 senior guard Rex Pflueger (3.7), Gibbs (3.4), Mooney (2)
Notable: Notre Dame only has seven players averaging double-figure minutes after guard Robby Carmody was lost to an ACL injury in December. Durham (7.8 ppg), Laszewski (7), Pflueger (5.8)
Best win: At Syracuse, 88-87. UVa went 1-1 against the Orange, which is sitting at 14-9 and 7-5.
Worst win: The Irish have a pair of back-to-back home wins that look less than stellar: 64-62 over Toledo, which is 11-13; and 63-53 over Presbyterian, which is 9-16
Other wins: Robert Morris, Howard, Marshall, Fairleigh Dickinson, UCLA, Detroit, Alabama A&M, Georgia Tech (home and away), Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Clemson
Best loss: At No. 5 Florida State, 85-84
Worst loss: Even though North Carolina was ranked No. 9 at the time, Notre Dame's 11-point loss at the Dean Dome to open the season hasn't aged well, given the Tar Heels' struggles.
Other losses: Maryland, Boston College, Indiana, N.C. State, Louisville , Syracuse (home)
What Notre Dame does well: The Fighting Irish are fairly strong on offense, averaging 76.2 points (57th nationally) while shooting 35.1 percent on 3-pointers (85th) and 74.5 percent at the line (63rd).
What Notre Dame doesn't do well: Defense is a bit of a weak point, with the team giving up 68.3 ppg (150th) and a 3-point shooting percentage of 34 percent (235th), so hopefully Tomas Woldetensae and whoever wants to join in can enjoy some long-range success. Notre Dame is stingier overall from the field, 41 percent (83rd).
Notre Dame is another team Virginia has dominated recently that will be inspired to knock off the Wahoos now that they are working through a down year. And though the Cavaliers have defeated the Fighting Irish in eight of nine matchups since they joined the ACC, some of the games have been closer than they probably should have been. Last year, Notre Dame was quite bad, finishing last in the ACC. UVa clobbered the Irish in South Bend, 82-55, but in Charlottesville, Notre Dame gave UVa fits and the margin of victory was much smaller, 60-54. Two seasons ago, Virginia faced Notre Dame on senior night as the No. 1 team in the nation, and an NIT-bound Irish team fought tooth and nail before falling, 62-57.
After the NIT season of 2017-18 and a way subpar 2018-19, the experienced Brey and Notre Dame are trying to work themselves back into the NCAA tournament conversation. Though the Irish are nowhere to be found on ESPN's latest bracket -- not even checking into one of the groups just outside the bracket -- they come in 51 in the NCAA's latest NET ranking, one spot ahead of UVa. NET is the 2-year-old replacement for RPI the tournament selection committee is relying on to help itself sort out who's who come March.
That tells me this Notre Dame team is dangerous. Don't let the so-so record fool you. Six of Notre Dame's eight losses -- the most recent six -- are by single digits. The Irish could easily be 17-6, 8-4, and safely in fourth place in the ACC, no doubt with a seat at the NCAA tournament table. But Virginia knows all about close losses and could also obviously sport a much better record if a couple of games had swung differently. This will likely be another close game in a season full of them.
Additionally, the Fighting Irish have won their past four games since Brey was fined after going on a rant against ACC officiating following their one-point loss at Florida State. None of those victories has come against the top of the ACC (Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Clemson), but they are wins nevertheless, and Notre Dame is probably feeling pretty good about itself as it arrives at JPJ.
One thing that jumps out at me about the Fighting Irish is their experience. They are a veteran team looking to get the program back to where it was, and it makes sense they are making strides this season. An older team seems to take care of the ball well, and Notre Dame is no exception, ranking second in turnovers per game (9.9 per game; Virginia Tech is first at 9.8).
I mentioned the Irish's 3-point shooting. Their best marksmen are Gibbs (41.9 percent), Goodwin (38.8), Hubb (34.6), Pflueger (33.8), Mooney (32.8), and Laszewski (31.5). Mooney is just good enough to keep Virginia honest when guarding him, and that's an issue since he is 6-9 and can draw the Cavaliers' big men away from the basket. Mamadi Diakite and whoever else draws the Mooney assignment will have their hands full, and it'll be a team effort.
I seriously doubt Virginia is going to hit 11 3s again in a game, and it wouldn't surprise me if fans don't see 73 again this season, but the Cavaliers should continue to have some offensive success against the Irish. It's not like they have to really light up the scoreboard to be successful. Getting into the 60s will more often than not result in a win -- it just didn't Saturday against a Final Four quality squad. Rebounding could be easier, too, than it was against Louisville. Notre Dame's averaging rebounding margin is ... well, there isn't one. The Irish grab about the same number of rebounds as their opponent each game, which slots them close to 200th.
I'm picking Virginia, but this was a tough pick. I think the Irish are a bit better than their record. It's going to come down to executing at the end of the game, probably, and if nothing else, the Wahoos have a lot of experience in those situations this season. But so do the Irish.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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