Radford (1-0) at No. 25 Virginia (0-1), 7 p.m. Friday, ACC Network Extra/ESPN+
For the 12th consecutive season, I'm going to go game by game and predict regular-season wins and losses for the Virginia basketball team. It has sort of become a tradition for me to do this after the first game of the season. I think at some point when I started this exercise, I just didn't get around to doing it on time (before the season started), and I just kept up that "tradition" each year because typically, Virginia dominates a weaker opponent in its first game. Thus, the first game often didn't change my viewpoint on how I thought the season would progress.
That's obviously not going to be the case this year.
SEASON PREVIEW: Check it out here.
Virginia, of course, did not dominate Navy on Tuesday. In fact, the Cavaliers lost. So I think it is going to be impossible for me to act like that result didn't matter and estimate their number of wins as if the season hadn't started yet. However, I am already on the record predicting a second-place ACC finish for these 'Hoos. So hopefully what I will be able to do with this prediction is balance my true preseason expectations with what we witnessed Tuesday. It's unrealistic to think that result won't affect me. It is probably now more of a possibility that I'll underestimate how the team will perform. Still, I always believe in coach Tony Bennett to mostly figure things out, and I am still confident in the Wahoos' potential to have a great season.
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Tony Bennett appears to have plenty to work on with this year's team.
As usual with this post, here is a list of my predictions each season with what the team's regular-season record actually ended up being, with the difference in estimated victories and actual victories at the end of each line (remember, this only looks at the regular season):
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9): +2
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7): +1
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7): +4
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2): +1
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +4
My 2015-16 prediction: 25-5 (14-4); actual record: 24-6 (13-5): -1
My 2016-17 prediction: 20-10 (10-8); actual record: 21-9 (11-7): +1
My 2017-18 prediction: 20-10 (11-7); actual record: 28-2 (17-1): +8
My 2018-19 prediction: 26-4 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +2
My 2019-20 prediction: 24-6 (15-5); actual record: 23-7 (15-5): -1
My 2020-21 prediction: 22-5 (16-4); actual record: 17-6 (13-4): -2*
Adjusted 20-21 prediction: 19-4 (14-3)
* So most every season, it is easy to calculate the difference in predicted record and actual record. Last year, not so much. Virginia's schedule included 27 games but only 23 were played because of the pandemic. So what I did is look at the winning percentage that I predicted and the winning percentage Virginia actually had: 0.815 (22-5) vs. 0.739 (17-6). And then I looked at what I may have predicted as a record with an equivalent win percentage had I known the season was only going to consist of 23 games. I came up with somewhere between 18-5 (0.783) and 19-4 (0.826), with the latter being a bit closer to the 0.815 I predicted (and I suppose a 14-3 ACC prediction seems about right). Thus, I decided 19-4 (14-3 ACC) would've been a pretty fair landing spot record for what I might have guessed had I known there'd be 23 games. So that is how I decided to say that I overestimated Virginia's number of wins by two. Of course, this isn't a perfect science. Virginia didn't end up facing Michigan State or Villanova, and then turned around and scheduled Gonzaga instead. The 'Hoos also were supposed to face Virginia Tech twice and Louisville twice but ended up playing each only once. Twenty ACC games were on the schedule, but UVa played 17. But anyway, I think that estimate is close enough.
So with that information in hand, we can see that I underestimated how well Virginia would do in eight out of 11 seasons, most notably missing the 2017-18 team's total by eight wins. But I overestimated, albeit slightly, the number of victories for the Cavaliers in each of the past two seasons. So let's see what this year's prediction brings. Right off the bat, I will be honest and say I would've picked UVa to beat Navy, so that will be built into this prediction.
vs. Navy - W (actual: L, 66-58)
vs. Radford - W
at Houston - L
vs. Coppin State - W
vs. Georgia in Newark, N.J. - W
vs. Northwestern or Providence in Newark, N.J. - L
vs. Lehigh - W
vs. Iowa - L
vs. Pittsburgh - W
at James Madison - W
vs. Fairleigh Dickinson - W
vs. Clemson - W
at Syracuse - L
at Clemson - L
at North Carolina - L
vs. Virginia Tech - W
vs. Wake Forest - W
at Pittsburgh - W
at N.C. State - W
vs. Louisville - W
at Notre Dame - W
vs. Boston College - W
vs. Miami - W
at Duke - L
vs. Georgia Tech - W
at Virginia Tech - L
at Miami - W
vs. Duke - L
vs. Florida State - L
at Louisville - L
Prediction: 19-11 (12-8 ACC)
Well there you go. Obviously I skewed in the direction of a pretty disappointing season. How can you not after seeing the team lose to Navy? Had I published this post before the game, you could've surely tacked on a handful of victories to my prediction.
Still, this record would have Virginia close to the NCAA tournament bubble — perhaps even safely in depending on how things shake out — but one thing to keep in mind is I am already off by one win since I would've picked the 'Hoos to beat Navy. So this effectively becomes an 18-12 prediction with that loss. A conference finish of 12-8 would put Virginia in the conversation for a top-five ACC finish.
The only nonconference games I am not that worried about are Radford, Coppin State, Lehigh, and Fairleigh Dickinson. I could conceivably see the others being losses. JMU won the CAA last season, and that crowd will be rocking as the Dukes try to knock off the Wahoos at their shiny new arena. After Virginia's loss to Navy, they will be smelling some blood in the water and giving Virginia all it can handle.
One thing that as never wavered over the past several seasons is Virginia's ability to win a regular-season nonconference tournament. The Cavaliers won seven straight from the 2013-14 campaign through the 2019-20 season, and there wasn't one held last year. This season, the 'Hoos put that streak on the line against Georgia and Northwestern or Providence in the Legends Classic in New Jersey. The Bulldogs were picked last in the SEC, the Wildcats were picked near the bottom of the Big Ten, and Providence was picked in the middle of the Big East. Right now, I'd have the 'Hoos beating Georgia and Northwestern and losing to Providence.
In the ACC slate, I have the 'Hoos starting out 2-0 before losing three straight. I then have them going on a hot streak to get to 10-3 and then running into more trouble to close the season, starting with the Duke road game. That vs. Duke-vs. FSU-at Louisville ending is especially brutal. Hopefully we are feeling pretty good about UVa's Big Dance chances before then. Almost every ACC game seems like a challenge once you lose to Navy. Virginia needs to take care of business in the easier conference games if at all possible. The contests I feel most uncertain about — whether I picked them as wins or losses — are at Clemson, both Virginia Tech games, at N.C. State, both Louisville games, and at Notre Dame. I really hope Virginia can beat someone surprising at some point. For now, all we can do is just enjoy the ride and expect to see improvement against Radford (which is 1-0 after beating Division II school Emory & Henry by 12 points on Tuesday).
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